NBA DFS Analytics: April 7th


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Quick Hitters (4/07)

- Today's main slate features 9 games. ATL, BOS, DEN, IND, MEM, and NOP are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIN v IND at 233 points. The game with the lowest over/under is BOS v NYK at 209 points.


Sabonis, Brogdon, Lamb, Turner Questionable: Who I like in this game obviously depends completely on who ends up sitting. If both Turner and Sabonis sit, there would be some major big-man minutes opened up for a guy like Bitadze ($3,000 DK and $3,900 FD), who would have an opportunity to get the start. If Brogdon/Lamb sit, I think you have to look at McConnell ($5,100 DK and $5,600 FD), who would be locked in for a good number of minutes. Finally, if Brogdon and Sabonis both sit, I LOVE Levert ($7,100 DK and $8,500 FD), especially on DK, as he should have a high enough usage to pay off his price tag there.

Harris, Mane, Porter Out: This isn’t huge news, but Cole Anthony, MCW, and Birch coming back is big news; I think the biggest thing it does is makes the other ORL players worse plays, even in a great matchup against WAS. I do think Ross ($6,400 DK and $6,600 FD) is a solid play; he’s not too pricey and should garner tons of usage against a dreadful WAS defense.

Beal, Lopez, Hachimura Questionable: As always, I love Russell Westbrook ($11,100 DK and $11,000 FD) if Beal sits (which he probably will considering he’s been Q for awhile now). Hachimura coming back would probably take some value away from Bertans, who has been starting in his place.

Shamet, Johnson, Harden Out: KD is back, but I don’t know how I feel about him tonight in DFS. If it comes out that he won’t have a minutes restriction, I could actually see getting him at his $8,800 price tag on FD. Assuming he has a minutes limit, though, I’m really liking Kyrie ($10,200 DK and $10,400 FD); he’s in a good matchup against the 5th worst defense in the NBA and it’s a primetime game which we know Irving loves!

Alexander-Walker, Hart Out, Ingram, Lewis Questionable: If Ingram sits (and maybe even if he doesn’t), I like Zion ($9,000 DK and $9,700 FD), who’s been playing out of his mind lately and is going up against the 6th worst defense in the NBA on a primetime game.

Porzingis, Kleber Questionable: I’m definitely liking Luka ($10,900 DK and $10,300 FD) if Porzingis sits; he’s playing against the 6th fastest-paced, 6th worst defense in the NBA (HOU), and he should absolutely go to work against a team that doesn’t do much of anything on that end. The only thing that worries me about Luka is the potential for this game to be a blowout, so that’s definitely something to consider with him.

Jamal Murray Questionable: If Murray sits, I think Barton ($5,400 DK and $5,800 FD) is a solid play; he led the team in minutes last night with 36 (and put up 24-4-6 in those minutes), and he’s a big time momentum player, so I could see him having another big outing tonight. I don’t like him if Murray plays, though.

Dejounte Murray Questionable, Lyles, Walker, Bates-Diop Out: If Murray sits again, I think Derozan ($8,200 DK and $7,900 FD) gets the largest value boost. That being said, the Spurs are a very balanced, hard to predict team, and they’re in a tough  matchup against a DEN team that plays at the 5th slowest pace in the league and gives up the 9th fewest points.


This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!


In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

IND Pacers Chalk

Sabonis, Turner, Lamb, and Brogdon are all questionable today, so who I’m playing from this IND team is directly dependent on that. If NONE of these guys play, Levert is an excellent play; he’ll be the primary ball-handler and will have tons of opportunities to make plays. If the big men (Sabonis and Turner) don’t play, Goga Bitadze (who’s the price minimum on DK) probably catapults into the starting lineup, but at the very least gets more than 20+ minutes, making him an excellent value player. Finally, If Brogdon doesn’t play, I like T.J McConnell, who would be locked in for 25+ minutes and would have a pretty solid usage role. You should look to potentially stack the Pacers tonight.


Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Terrence Ross ($6,400 DK and $6,600 FD)

Ross is basically the only constant on this ORL Magic team, and even though they have Cole Anthony and MCW coming back tonight, I don’t think they impact Ross too much; he’s going to get his minutes and shots no matter who’s on the court. That’s why I like him tonight against WAS, who is the fastest-paced team in the NBA and is the worst defensive team. If Ross gets the ~30 minutes that he should, he should have no problem returning value on his mid-tier price tags on both sites.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!


Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/07 AC Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Malik Beasley (MIN)

  • Jaylen Nowell (MIN)
  • Thomas Bryant (WAS)
  • Daniel Gafford (WAS)
  • Evan Fournier (BOS)
  • Kemba Walker (BOS)
  • John Henson (NYK)
  • Mitchell Robinson (NYK)
  • Lamelo Ball (CHA)
  • Gordon Hayward (CHA)
  • Malik Monk (CHA)
  • Darius Bazley (OKC)
  • Lu Dort (OKC)
  • Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)
  • Mike Muscala (OKC)
  • Isaiah Roby (OKC)
  • Willie Cauley-Stein (DAL)
  • Trey Burke (DAL)
  • JJ Redick (DAL)
  • Danuel House (HOU)
  • David Nwaba (HOU)
  • John Collins (ATL)
  • Deandre Hunter (ATL)
  • Cam Reddish (ATL)
  • Brandon Clarke (MEM)
  • Jaren Jackson (MEM)
  • Justise Winslow (MEM)
  • De’Anthony Melton (MEM)
  • Abdel Nader (PHO)

Questionable Players:

  • Avery Bradley (P) - HOU
  • John Wall (Q) - HOU
  • Danilo Gallinari (Q) - ATL

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!