NBA DFS Analytics: April 6th


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Quick Hitters (4/06)

- Today's main slate features 8 games. DET and TOR are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIL v GSW at 237.5  points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAL v TOR at 208 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Brodgon, Lamb, Sabonis Questionable: Who I like in this game depends completely on whether Brogdon and/or Sabonis play. If they both sit, I would like Levert ($7,200 DK and $8,000 FD), who would be the definite go-to guy for IND. If one of either Sabonis/Brogdon sits and the other plays, I would definitely consider playing the one who plays, especially against a CHI team that’s below average defensively and plays at an above average pace.

VanVleet, Lowry, Hood Out: TOR had very balanced scoring yesterday without their star guards (6 players scored in double figures). But tonight, I still think you have to go back to either Pascal ($8,200 DK and $8,700 FD) or Trent ($6,200 DK and $6,400 FD), who should both see more shot and playmaking opportunities than normal, even against a LAL team that has allowed the 9th fewest PPG to opposing teams.

Zion, Ingram Questionable, Lewis Doubtful, Alexander-Walker, Hart Out: Against the Rockets 2 nights ago, the Pels had 7 players score in double figures without Zion and Ingram in the lineup. If both guys sit again, I think you have to think long and hard about Lonzo ($7,500 DK and FD); he put up 27-9-4 last time out and is infinitely more aggressive without the 2 stars in the lineup. Similar to the Pacers situation, I would play either Zion or Ingram if the other sits. 

Fournier, Thompson Out: I don’t think Fournier’s absence opens up that much in the BOS rotation. The bench guys who come in don’t tend to put up big numbers anyway (besides Fournier), so I don’t think any of them get a huge value boost from Evan sitting.

Murray Questionable: If Murray sits, I like whoever starts in his place to get the biggest value boost tonight; my guess would be Monte Morris ($3,900 DK and $3,800 FD), who’s finally getting more comfortable after returning from his injury. He’s also going up against a DET team that’s poor at defending players with his player profile.

Nurkic Out, Jones Jr. Probable: Without Nurkic, I like Kanter ($6,000 DK and $5,800 FD) to get the start and get around 30 minutes, which gives him a good chance to return value even against a very good LAC defense. He put up 12-4-17 after Nurkic got hurt last game.

4/6 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Whoever Plays for the NOP (out of Zion, Ingram, and Lonzo)

Zion and Ingram are both questionable tonight (as they have been for the past few games). If one of them sits and one plays, I would play whichever one of them plays (barring news about a minute restriction before the game). Either Ingram or Zion would be the go-to guy for the Pels against an ATL team that gives up the 10th most points in the NBA. If neither guy plays, I would look to get Lonzo in your lineup, who plays with significantly more aggression and offensive confidence without his 2 star teammates in the lineup.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Monte Morris (3,900 DK and 3,800 FD)

I like Morris a lot more if Murray doesn’t play (obviously), but I still think he’s a solid play even if Jamal is in the lineup. He’s been returning from an injury and is just getting his feet under him, so I expect his minutes to continue to rise no matter what. If Jamal sits, I think there’s a good chance he gets the start tonight, in which case he would potentially be in a smash spot on both sites.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/06 AC Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Garrett Temple (CHI)

  • Daniel Theis (CHI)
  • Lebron James (LAL)
  • Anthony Davis (LAL)
  • Patrick McCaw (TOR)
  • Paul Watson (TOR)
  • John Collins (ATL)
  • Deandre Hunter (ATL)
  • Cam Reddish (ATL)
  • George Hill (PHI)
  • De’Anthony Melton (MEM)
  • Justise Winslow (MEM)
  • Jaren Jackson (MEM)
  • KZ Okpala (MIA)
  • Eric Paschall (GSW)
  • PJ Tucker (MIL)
  • Serge Ibaka (LAC)

Questionable Players:

  • Coby White (P) - CHI

  • Andre Drummond (Q) - LAL
  • Wesley Matthews (Q) - LAL
  • Brandon Clarke (Q) - MEM
  • Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (P) - MIL
  • Patrick Beverley (Q) - LAC

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