NBA DFS Analytics: April 5th


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Quick Hitters (4/05)

- Today's main slate features 7 games. NYK and HOU are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is SAC v MIN at 235 points. The game with the lowest over/under is DET v OKC at 213 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Nance, Allen, Windler Out: The prices have adjusted to Nance/Allen being out, and so have the Cavs. They’ve been playing a lot of Okoro ($4,000 DK and $3,900 FD) at the 4, and he’s played well, so I like him to continue to get a good number of minutes. At his price tag, and with the ~35 minutes he should get, he seems like a solid value play tonight.

Plumlee, McGruder, Ellington Out: Without Plumlee, I expect Isaiah Stewart ($4,000 DK and $3,700 FD) to get the start and get a lot of minutes. Given that he’s so cheap on both sites, Stewart might be my favorite play of the night. This is not to mention that he’s going up against Moses Brown, who he should absolutely pound on the boards.

Bazley, Dort, SGA, Muscala, Roby, Hall Out: The Thunder will have 8 active players tonight, and I basically like all of them. Even in a blowout, they should all see tons of minutes and opportunities to show what they can do offensively. Darius Miller ($3,000 DK and $3,500 FD) is the price minimum on both sites and should be locked in for 25+ minutes, and I also like Kenrich Williams ($5,100 DK and $4,700 FD), who put up 18-2-5 last game in only 25 minutes (and should get more than 25 minutes tonight).

Beasley, Nowell, Rubio, Russell Doubtful: Assuming all of these guys don’t play, I like KAT ($10,600 DK and $11,000 FD), who’s the CLEAR number one option and is playing against a SAC team that is dreadful at guarding stretch bigs like Towns. I also don’t hate McLaughlin ($4,400 DK and $4,600 FD), who’s been getting the start without Rubio in the lineup and put up 12-9-6 in 42 (!) minutes last time out.

Kristaps, Richardson Questionable: The Mavs are in a very tough matchup tonight against a rolling Jazz team, which makes me hesitant to play any DAL players. But, If both Porzingis and Richardson sit, Luka ($10,800 DK and $10,300 FD) becomes a solid top-tier play due to what would likely be increased usage and shots without those two in the lineup. If they play (even one of them), I like no one on the Mavs tonight.

Hood, McCaw, Lowry, Watson Out, VanVleet Questionable: With Lowry and Hood out and maybe even VanVleet also, I like A LOT of the Raptors players tonight, especially against a WAS team that plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and gives up the most points. My favorite play is probably Trent ($6,600 DK and $5,400 FD), especially on FanDuel, because he’s fairly cheap and should get tons of minutes tonight. If VanVleet sits (or maybe even if he plays), you should consider stacking TOR tonight.

Gafford, Bryant, Hachimura Out, Beal Questionable: Without Rui, I like Bertans ($3,600 DK and $3,700 FD), who’s way too cheap and should get the start again. The Raptors also give up the 6th most 3 pointers in the NBA, which definitely plays to Bertans advantage. Also, as always, if Beal sits, Westbrook ($11,100 DK and $11,000FD) becomes a solid option, even though he’s the highest priced player on both slates.

Wall, Nwaba, House Out: Wall and Nwaba have been out for awhile, but with House out, I like whoever starts in his place to get the biggest value boost tonight. I don’t know who that’ll be, but I would be concerned about playing ANY Rockets player due to the blowout potential against a red hot Suns team (no pun intended).

4/5 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Isaiah Stewart (4,000 DK and 3,700 FD)

Stewart might be my favorite play of the night. On a night without Plumlee and against an OKC team that is 5th to last in the NBA at guarding Centers, I think Stewart is virtually impossible to pass up on. With the 30+ minutes he should be locked in for combined with his miniscule price tag, I’m super confident that Stewart returns value tonight, and he might even smash.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Darius Miller ($3,000 DK and 3,500 FD)

The Thunder have 8 active players on their roster tonight, which is why I like the cheapest of them all, Darius Miller, to be a solid value play. In 14 minutes last game he put up 11-2, and I expect him to get a lot more minutes tonight with only 8 available guys. Miller is about as good an option as you can find for the minimum price on both sites, and playing him allows you to get some other higher tier plays into your lineup. I also think there’s a good chance he’s the guy on the Thunder with the lowest ownership tonight.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/05 AC Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Keita Bates-Diop (SAS)

  • Trey Lyles (SAS)
  • Lonnie Walker (SAS)
  • Kevin Durant (BKN)
  • Blake Griffin (BKN)
  • Tyler Johnson (BKN)
  • Landry Shamet (BKN)
  • Mitchell Robinson (NYK)
  • Marvin Bagley (SAC)
  • Eric Hordon (HOU)
  • Frank Kaminsky (PHO)
  • Abdel Nader (PHO)

Questionable Players:

  • Gorgui Dieng (Q) - SAS
  • Norvel Pelle (P) - NYK
  • Hassan Whiteside (Q) - SAC

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!