NBA DFS Analytics: April 30th


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QUICK HITTERS (4/30)

- Today's main slate features 8 games. BKN, MIL are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is BKN v POR at 241.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is MIL v CHI at 219.5 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Bogdan, Trae, Capela Questionable, Snell Probable, Huerter, Hunter Out: My guess is that Capela plays and Trae/Bogdan sit, in which case I wouldn’t hate playing Capela ($8,700 DK and FD) at his price tag. If all of these guys sit, I would definitely like Collins ($6,600 DK and $7,300 FD), who would be a focal point of their offense with all the injuries.

Kemba Out: Kemba was out last game, so the prices have adjusted a bit. I still like Pritchard ($4,300 DK and $4,100 FD), though, who’s a bit too cheap given the minutes and shots he should see tonight. He’s been earning Coach Stevens’ trust as of late, and I think he continues to play a good amount tonight.

Hartenstein, Nance, Prince, Dellavedova, Stevens, WIndler Out, Sexton Questionable: If Sexton sits, I continue to like Garland ($8,000 DK and $7,800 FD), who is the primary scorer and playmaker without his backcourt mate in the lineup. Garland is also playing against WAS, which we know often results in tons of fantasy points for the opponents. 

Grayson Allen Doubtful, Jaren Jackson Out: Without Allen, I would play whoever starts in his place (could be Desmond Bane). Without Jackson, Clarke ($3,800 DK and $4,400 FD) should see more minutes than he’s been seeing the past few games, making him an interesting play tonight at his small price tag.

Okeke, MCW, Porter Out, Ross Doubtful: Even though Okeke played last game, I don’t think his absence opens up too much value tonight for ORL. There are simply too many cooks in the kitchen.

Brown, Chiozza, Claxton, Harden, Durant Out: Without these guys, you definitely have to look at Kyrie ($9,400 DK and $9,800 FD); he’ll be the primary playmaker/scorer and is coming off a game of rest, so he should be fresh and ready to go. Joe Harris ($5,700 DK and $5,400 FD) is also a solid option, considering he’ll see more shots than normal tonight with the injuries.

MIL not yet submitted: Giannis got injured yesterday and I doubt he plays today, making Middleton ($7,900 DK and $7,200 FD) the primary scoring option for MIL. The Bucks also played last night, so I could see some guys resting tonight, which means even more value could be opened up later.

Conley, Mitchell Out, O’Neale Questionable: George Niang ($3,400 DK and $4,000 FD) got the start last game and put up 19-4-3, and I expect him to get the start again tonight and play well, making him one of my favorite plays of the night. If O’Neale sits, someone else will get a surprise start as well (probably Clarkson, who I also like tonight).

Bagley Probable, Fox, Barnes Out: I still LOVE Buddy Hield ($7,200 DK and $7,000 FD) tonight without Fox and Barnes in the lineup (even though they also sat last game); He’ll be the go-to guy offensively and will probably take 20+ shots.

4/30 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPPOptimizers & Player Projections, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Jrue Holiday (7,800 DK and 7,300 FD)

The MIL injury report hasn’t been released yet, but I would be absolutely shocked if Giannis somehow suited up after last night’s ankle injury. As a result, I like both Middleton and Holiday tonight, but I’m taking Holiday because he’s less expensive on DK and gets more value from his player profile than does Middleton. Against CHI, who’s a below average defensive team and plays at an above average pace, I expect Jrue to return value on his 7k-range price tag on both sites. If he somehow sits due to rest, I would play Middleton. If both rest, I would consider TONS of guys (Portis, Forbes, Lopez, etc).

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Georges Niang (3,400 DK and 4,000 FD)

I’m not exactly sure what Niang’s ownership will look like tonight, but with all of the other value to be found across the slate, we have him at below 10% ownership on both sites, making him an EXCELLENT play in GPP contests. In the last game without Conley and Mitchell, Niang got the start and put up 19-4-3. Tonight, both of those guys will be out and O’Neale (Q) might sit as well, which would make Georges an even better play. At this miniscule price tag, Niang is probably my favorite play of the night, even against a tough PHO defense.

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TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/30 AC Projection Tables

Looking for our Full Ownership/Point Projections and Lineup Optimizers?

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Unbelievably excited to be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Rob Williams MORE than 8.5 Rebounds

Rob had missed the previous few games as a result of a knee injury, and the last game was his first game back. In that game (against CHA 2 nights ago), Robert Williams played just 17 minutes and had 9 rebounds. I expect his minutes to ramp up tonight, and I would be fairly surprised if he didn’t eclipse 9 rebounds tonight, especially against a SAS team that gives up the 4th most DREB and the 6th most OREB to opposing teams. I think Rob sees 20+ minutes tonight and therefore has a solid chance at getting 9+ rebounds.

Joe Harris (+0.5 Threes) MORE made threes than CJ McCollum

For starters, the over/under for BOTH of these guys is 2.5 Made threes, meaning you’re getting a slight advantage by picking Harris, who would win this contest if they hit the same number of threes. Regardless of the statistical reasons why you should pick Harris, though, I like him because I think he’ll take a ton of threes tonight without Harden and KD in the lineup. Although Kyrie could easily score 40+, he could also choose to be more of a facilitator today (which he often does), which would bode very well for Harris’ shot attempts.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!