NBA DFS Analytics: April 2nd


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Quick Hitters (4/02)

- Today's main slate features 10 games. CHA, GSW, ATL, NOP are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIL v POR at 239 points. The game with the lowest over/under is DAL v NYK at 212 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Cauley-Stein, Reddick, Porzingis Out, Kleber Questionable: With Porzingis out tonight, I think you have to get Kleber ($4,100 DK and $4,400 FD) into your lineup (if he plays) due to the lack of front court depth for the Mavs. I also like Melli ($3,000 DK and $3,500 FD), who’s the price minimum and should get a lot more minutes without Porzingis in the lineup. If Kleber also doesn’t play, I like Melli even more. Oh, and I also LOVE Luka ($10,600 DK and $10,400 FD), who’s playing against a WAS team that plays at the fastest pace in the league, gives up the most points, and is TERRIBLE at guarding players like Luka.

Beal Questionable, Gafford, Bryant Out: If Beal sits, Russ ($11,100 DK and $11,000 FD) becomes tough to look away from; he absolutely goes off when Beal rests and he’s been playing extremely well as of late. If Beal plays, I don’t really like anyone on the Wizards tonight; I think WAS tries to slow the pace down.

Nance, Allen, Windler Out: Without Nance and Allen again, the Cavs will be scrambling for big men; that’s why I like Wade ($4,800 DK and $4,600 FD) and Hartenstein ($4,300 DK and FD) tonight, who are both very cheap and are locked in for solid minutes tonight.

Rubio, Beasley Doubtful: If Beasley and Rubio sit, I like Anthony Edwards ($7,300 DK and $7,900 FD), who should see an increase in both his minutes and usage. Edwards is also in a solid matchup against a PHI team that plays at the 5th fastest pace in the NBA, so he should be able to take advantage of his excellent athleticism.

Sabonis Out, Brogdon, Lamb Questionable: With Sabonis out tonight, I think McDermott ($4,000 DK and $4,300 FD) is a must-play; he probably gets the start in Sabonis place, and even if he doesn’t, he’ll see more minutes than normal. If Brogdon also sits, Levert ($7,200 DK and $7,100 FD) becomes a must-play. He’s cheap and would be the go-to guy.

Carter-Williams, Ross, Porter, Mane, Birch Questionable: You’ll have to keep an eye on the ORL injury report tonight, because basically half the team is questionable. I think virtually every Magic guy gets a boost if these guys decide to sit, but I still worry about playing them against the Jazz in what will likely be a blowout. 

Conley Out: Without Conley, I’m going back to Ingles ($5,700 DK and $5,400 FD) tonight. He usually gets the start when a Jazz starter is out, and tonight should be no different. Make sure you keep an eye on the starting lineup, though, in case he somehow doesn’t start.

*SGA, Bazley, Dort, Muscala, Horford Out: The prices have adjusted for the most part to these guys being out, but you can still find some value on this OKC team. I like Aleksej ($5,100 DK and $5,600 FD) tonight; he went for 20-4-5 last night and he led the team in minutes with 33.

*The OKC injury report hasn’t come out yet, but I’m assuming all of these guys will be out (like they were last night). Nothing we can do about OKC holding the injury news until later on…

4/2 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Lou Williams ($4,400 DK & $4,800 FD)

Trae Young and Danilo Gallinari combined for 71 minutes last night. With them both out tonight, a ton of value should open up for the Hawks. I really like both Bogdanovic and Huerter tonight, but I think the biggest benficienairy is Lou Williams. Williams thrives in high usage roles, and has the ability to create shots for himself at any point. I think he becomes the primary ball handler for the Hawks tonight and plays around 30 minutes. At just $4,400, he is an excellent player to consider locking into cash lineups before optimizing.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Doug McDermott* ($3,800 DK & $3,700 FD)

I still think this is an okay GPP play if Sabonis plays. But if Sabonis sits it becomes my favorite play of the night. In just 23 minutes last time out, McDermott went for 14-3-1, which would easily be enough to get you 5X value on his 3.8K price tag. If Sabonis were to sit, McDermott would likely be looking at 25+ minutes, and should have no problem smashing 5X value against a Charlotte team that ranks worst in the NBA in 3 pointers allowed per game.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/02 AC Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Willie Cauley-Stein (DAL)

  • JJ Redick (DAL)
  • Romeo Langford (BOS)
  • Semi Ojeleye (BOS)
  • Tristan Thompson (BOS)
  • Eric Gordon (HOU)
  • David Nwaba (HOU)
  • Lamelo Ball (CHA)
  • Malik Monk (CHA)
  • Jaren Jackson (MEM)
  • Justise Winslow (MEM)
  • Juwan Morgan (UTA)
  • Marvin Bagley (SAC)
  • PJ Tucker (MIL)
  • Nassir Little (POR)
  • Abdel Nader (PHO)
  • Frank Kaminsky (PHO)

      Questionable Players:

      • John Wall (Q) - HOU

      • Grayson Allen (Q) - MEM
      • Josh Okogie (Q) - MIN
      • Joe Ingles (P) - UTA
      • Hassan Whiteside (Q) - SAC
      • Bobby Portis (Q) - MIL
      • Jeff Teague (Q) - MIL
      • Torrey Craig (Q) - PHO

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        Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!