NBA DFS Analytics: April 28th


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QUICK HITTERS (4/28)

- Today's main slate features 10 games. BOS, CHA, and POR are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is POR v MEM at 240 points. The game with the lowest over/under is CHI v NYK at 209.5 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Young, Snell, Hunter Out, Huerter Doubtful, Goodwin, Bogdan Questionable: Assuming Huerter sits, there will be a starting spot opened in the Hawks lineup. Goodwin and Bogdan sitting would also open up 2 more starting spots. I definitely like Galinari ($5,300 DK and $5,500 FD), who would probably get one of the starting spots and would see higher usage than normal if these guys sit. 

Windler, Stevens, Sexton, Nance, Hartenstein, Prince, Dellavedova Out: These guys were out last game, so the prices have somewhat adjusted. I definitely still like Garland ($7,700 DK and FD) at this price tag considering he’s the go-to guy offensively and should continue to see very high usage.

Kemba Out: Without Kemba, I think you have to take a hard look at Pritchard ($4,000 DK and $4,100 FD), who scored his career high 28 last night and should continue to see good minutes.

Herro, Nunn Questionable: Both of these guys sat out the last game, and the only thing that would happen if they return is that some value would be taken away from Dragic and Vincent. If they don’t play, I wouldn’t have a problem looking at Jimmy ($9,500 DK and FD), who should play hard and well given the playoff push they must make. 

Batum, Coffey Questionable, Kawhi Doubtful: Even though PG ($9,800 DK and $9,900 FD) played really poorly last time out without Kawhi, I think he has a bounce back game against the Suns on ESPN tonight. This is a super important game for playoff seeding, and I think PG13 tries to rid his reputation of disappearing in important games.

Bagley Doubtful, Barnes, Fox Out: Without Fox last game, Barnes put up 19. Now, without him, there is a lot of opportunity in this lineup. I like a bunch of guys: Haliburton, Hield, Davis, Wright, Whiteside, etc. My favorite is Wright ($4,900 DK and $5,500 FD), who is too cheap given the opportunity he should get tonight, even against a tough UTA defense. 

Conley, Mitchell Out: Without Conley tonight, I bet Clarkson ($6,900 DK and $6,300 FD) will get the start and see more minutes than normal. Clarkson is a professional scorer and will definitely have a chance to do a lot of that tonight against the worst defense in the NBA. The other Jazz players also get a slight value boost from Conley being out.

4/28 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPPOptimizers & Player Projections, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Buddy Hield ($7,300 DK and $6,500 FD)

With both Fox and Barnes out tonight, there was no question I was going to look towards someone from SAC. I like both Haliburton and Harkless a lot tonight, but I went with Hield because I think his three point shooting makes him impossible to pass on. Not only is he shooting a ridiculous amount of threes (37 in his past 4 games), but he’s hitting them at an extremely high rate (over 50% during that same 4 game stretch). He should be even more involved tonight, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s forced to take 10+ threes with the lack of other offensive options the Kings have on the court tonight.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Derrick Rose ($5,400 DK & $6,200 FD)

Maybe you’ve noticed, but I am putting a serious emphasis on players from teams that are beginning to play extremely meaningful games. Derrick Rose and the Knicks fall into the category tonight. Although currently the 4th seed, the Knicks are just two games ahead of the 7th placed Heat, and every win is critical at this point in the season. Even though he hasn’t been starting, Rose has taken over the PG position for NY, playing over 30 minutes in 4 of the past 5 games. He continues to show he can still be extremely effective in this league and in a plus matchup against his old team tonight I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go for 40+ DK points.

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TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/28 AC Projection Tables

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Unbelievably excited to be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Jaylen Brown MORE than 23.5 Points

Jaylen was about as vocal as I’ve ever seen him after yesterday’s loss to the Thunder. He used some explicit language and talked about how the Celtics need to play harder and with more of a sense of urgency. I think Jaylen leads the charge for the Celtics tonight and comes out ultra aggressive. All of these games moving forward are must-wins for the Celtics (as they’re battling to get out of the play-in tournament), so I expect them to turn on the switch at some point. I think Jaylen could turn his switch on tonight.

Buddy Hield MORE than 18.5 Points

Buddy only scored 16 points last game without Fox (which was surprisingly low), but I think he  bounces back tonight with 19+. In addition to Fox sitting out, Barnes will be taking the night off, which will surely open up more usage and shots for Buddy, who should be the clear go-to guy for SAC tonight. Even though they’re playing against the Jazz, who give up the 4th fewest points in the NBA, they’ll be missing Conley (in addition to Mitchell), so I could envision this game going down to the wire.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!