NBA DFS Analytics: April 26th


Announcements

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- Each days newsletter will also include writeups/roundups, MLB MKF plays of the day, and quick hitters!

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QUICK HITTERS (4/26)

- Today's main slate features 11 games. ATL, CLE, MEM, ORL, PHO, SAC, and WAS are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is SAS v WAS at 229 points. The game with the lowest over/under is CHI v MIA at 205 points.

NEED TO KNOW

AD, KCP, Gasol Probable, Schroder Questionable: If Schroder sits, I would consider playing whoever starts in his place. However, I would still be concerned about playing whoever starts because the Magic have actually developed into a very sound defensive team; they give up the 2nd fewest points in the NBA!

Dort Out, Bradley Questionable: Dort being out opens up some opportunity at the guard position for OKC. I definitely like a guy like Kenrich Williams ($4,500 DK and $5,200 FD), who should see more minutes and shot attempts tonight without Dort in the lineup.

Embiid, Simmons, Harris, Korkmaz, Green Questionable: TONS of news here, but it all depends on who plays between Simmons/Embiid/Harris. If only one of them plays, definitely get that guy into your lineup. If none of them play, I like virtually all of the remaining players on PHI (Curry, Milton, Howard, etc). My favorite is probably Milton ($4,900 DK and $4,700 FD), who would have a chance to smash his price tag if the stars sit.

Avdija Out, Westbrook, Lopez Questionable: If Westbrook sits tonight (which probably won’t happen), you need to get Beal ($9,700 DK and $9,400 FD) into your lineup; he becomes the CLEAR primary scoring option and will see far higher usage than normal. I would also probably like Neto ($5,200 DK and $4,500 FD) at his price tag if Russ sits.

Sexton, Hartenstein, Stevens, Dellevadova Out: You should play Garland ($7,500 DK and $7,600 FD) as a result of Sexton sitting for the 2nd night in a row. Darius put up 28-9-4 last night and should be ultra aggressive again tonight. I also think Allen ($7,000 DK and $5,700 FD) should see some more minutes without Hartenstein and Stevens playing, making him a solid play.

Boucher, Trent Out: The prices have adjusted for the most part to these two guys being out. TOR’s rotation is very limited these days, but I’m not sure who out of Lowry, FVV, Siakam, and OG has the big game tonight. Each of them scare me, and I think there’s enough other value out there to fade the Raps.

Nunn, Herro Questionable, Iggy Out: If both Nunn and Herro sit, I would really like Dragic ($5,000 DK and $5,300 FD) at his price tag on both sites. He would probably get the start and see more minutes/usage than normal.

Leonard, Kennard Out, Rondo Questionable: Paul George ($9,600 DK and $10,000 FD) is a must play tonight without Kawhi in the lineup and against the NOP. If Rondo sits, I would also like Reggie Jackson ($5,800 DK and $6,000 FD), who would be locked in for a good number of PG minutes and should be a secondary scoring option without Kawhi and Kennard.

Steven Adams, James Johnson Questionable: If Adams sits, I would definitely look VERY HARD at Jaxson Hayes ($3,300 DK and $3,600 FD), who would likely get the start and would see significantly more minutes than normal. He would have a chance to smash his price tag.

Barton, Murray, Morris Out: Without these guys last game, Dozier ($5,200 DK and $4,600 FD) got the start and put up 23-3-7. At this price tag, and with the minutes and opportunity he has earned, I really like PJ tonight. He’ll only get more and more confident as he gets more minutes under his belt.

Luka, Richardson, Kristaps, Kleber, Finney-Smith, Reddick Questionable: TONS of news here, but it all depends on these questionable guys. If Luka/Porzingis don’t play, it would open up A LOT of shots and usage for the rest of the team, meaning I would like a lot of guys. My favorite would be Tim Hardaway ($4,300 DK and $4,100 FD), who would have a definite chance to smash his price tag if Luka and Porzingis sit, and an even better chance if Josh sits as well.

SAC not yet submitted: Fox will likely be out again, and I could also see Holmes, Hield, Barnes, etc taking a rest day as a result of the B2B. Keep an eye out for this injury news.

4/26 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPPOptimizers & Player Projections, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Paul George ($9,600 DK and $10,000 FD)

I’ve written about George in the cash core quite a bit recently, but as long as Kawhi continues to sit i’m going to continue going right to PG. The man has been simply unstoppable without Kawhi on the floor, going for 50+ Dk points each of the previous 5 times it’s occurred. He gets a solid matchup tonight against New Orleans and I don’t see any reason he scores less than 50 DK points again tonight.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Dennis Schroeder ($7,000 DK and FD) 

I’m really looking for some off the radar plays tonight, and I think one of them could be Dennis Schroeder. What makes me really excited about him is the Lakers are coming off 4 straight games against some incredibly tough defensive teams at the PG position (Jazz, Jazz, Mavs, Mavs). He finally gets an awesome matchup tonight against an Orlando team that’s given up over 130 points in back to back games, and has struggled mightily against the PG position this year (5th worst in the NBA). Even in those tough matchups, Schroeder was brilliant, averaging nearly 45 DK points across the 4 games. He’s questionable right now, but if he plays, I think he has huge potential and needs to be considered in GPP lineups.

Since he's questionable, we'll give a second GPP core play here!

Julius Randle ($9,900 & $10,100)

I’m looking at Julius primarily for ownership reasons (we have him projected at 6.4%) but I think he could be a sneaky strong play tonight. Apart from Luka/Westbrook, none of the high tier options are too enticing for me tonight, and I think there’s a legitimate chance Julius ends up as one of the top 3 scorers of the night. People will be scared off by the Suns, but they actually haven’t been THAT good defensively in their past 5 games, and I don’t know who on their roster sticks with Julius tonight. Finally, Julius is gonna need to come and play one of his best games for the Knicks to compete, and with the way he’s been playing this year, I wouldn’t bet against it.

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TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/26 AC Projection Tables

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Unbelievably excited to be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Paul George MORE than 30.5 Points

I’m aggressively hitting the over on this line tonight. Without Kawhi and Kennard, and against a NOP team that gives up the 5th most points in the NBA to opposing teams and plays at the 11th fastest pace, I really like PG’s chances of going off tonight. It should also be noted that PG13 has been on an absolute tear recently; he’s scored 30 in 6 of his last 7 games, and I expect him to do so again tonight with all the shots he should get against a bad defensive team.

PJ Dozier (+5.5 Points) MORE points than Dillon Brooks

Dozier got the start a couple nights ago (because Barton, Morris, and Murray are out) and he scored 23 points. He’s a very talented offensive player, and I think he only continues to get more confident and shoot more shots as he becomes a larger part of the offense. On the other side of the ball, Dillon Brooks should score fewer points than he has been as of late as a result of JoVal coming back into the lineup. With the 5.5 point cushion that Dozier has, I’ll find it very tough not to pick him tonight.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!