NBA DFS Analytics: April 25th


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 NBA DFS Wheel of Fortune - Episode 1 


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- Today's main slate features 4 games. IND and MIL are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is SAC v GSW at 230.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is IND v ORL at 224.5 points.


Winder, Prince, Sexton Out: Without Sexton, Garland ($7,200 DK and $7,300 FD) becomes the clear primary playmaker for CLE, and he’s also in a matchup with WAS, who plays the worst defense in the NBA and plays at the fastest pace. Finally, WAS is TERRIBLE at guarding PG’s like Garland, so I doubt they hold him down at all. Look for a big night from Darius.

Young, Snell, Hunter Out, Capela Questionable: If Capela sits, I would like Okongwu ($3,800 DK and $3,900 FD), who would likely get the start and see 25+ minutes. I also continue to like Goodwin ($4,200 DK and $5,000 FD) at his price tag given the minutes he gets without Young.

Turner, Sabonis Out, Bitadze, Lamb, McDermott Questionable: If Bitadze sits again, I would have a hard time not playing Jakar Sampson ($3,000 DK and $4,200 FD) on DK. Otherwise, I would go right back to Brissett ($4,800 DK and $5,300 FD), who’s been getting TONS of minutes and has made good use of them. I also continue to like Levert/Brogdon.

Carter, Ross, Ennis Questionable, MCW, Porter Out: ORL is a crapshoot, but there might be some value opened up here if these guys sit. I would like Gary Harris ($4,200 DK and $4,100 FD) if all of these don’t play.

Bagley, Fox Out, Holmes Questionable: Without Fox, I really like Buddy ($7,300 DK and $6,500 FD), who should lead the Kings in shots and be in a good position to smash his price tag, especially on FD. I also like Haliburton ($6,200 DK and $5,800 FD), who should get the start for Fox and see more minutes/usage.


This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPPOptimizers & Player Projections, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!


In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Darius Garland ($7,200 DK and $7,300 FD)

Similar deal here, no Sexton means Garland immediately steps into the primary ball handling role tonight against an AWFUL Washington defense. Even with Sexton, Garland has been pretty special lately, and has scored over 38 DK points in each of his last 5 games. He’s a definite cash lock, and maybe even worth throwing in GPP lineups despite his high ownership just because of his 50+ point upside tonight.


Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Kevin Huerter ($6,400 DK and $5,700 FD)

Huerter is coming off an impressive 35.5 DK point performance, and although he did secure 5 steals in that one, the amount of minutes he plays gives him so many opportunities to pile up fantasy points throughout the course of a game. No Trae tonight means he should continue to see slightly higher usage, and he’s taken at least 7 three point shots in each of his last 4 games.

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Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/25 AC Projection Tables

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!


Unbelievably excited to be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Buddy Hield MORE than 18.5 points

Buddy is in the main MORE/LESS contest for SAC v GS (paired with Steph Curry), and I think his 18.5 points line is just ridiculously low. Buddy went for 29 points last game and should see even higher usage and more shots tonight with De'Aaron out. Not only that, GS is a great matchup for him and this game should be a shootout. This line may move up a bit during the day, but I think Buddy goes for 20+ tonight. 

Giannis Antetokoumpo MORE than 10.5 rebounds

You can find this line in the Star Shootout early games MORE/LESS section. And it's is another line I'm a bit confused by. Giannis has grabbed 30 rebounds in his past 2 games, and gets a really solid matchup against a Hawks team he absolutely burned (and grabbed 14 rebounds against) earlier this year. I guess there is definitely a bit of a blowout worry in this one, but as long as Giannis plays 30ish minutes I don't think he has any problem grabbing 11+ boards tonight.  

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!


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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!