NBA DFS Analytics: April 24th


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QUICK HITTERS (4/24)

- Today's main slate features 6 games. DEN, HOU, and MIA are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIN v UTA at 230.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is CHI v MIA at 204 points.

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Unbelievably excited to be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Mason Plumlee MORE than 8.5 Rebounds

The IND Pacers are once again without their star big men Sabonis and Turner. Additionally, Goga Bitadze is Questionable, so he could be sitting out as well. As a result, I really think the Pistons will try to exploit the glass tonight. The Pacers are a better offensive team, so I think their best bet is to win the rebounding battle; Plumlee would obviously be a big part of this. IND will get back Jakar Sampson tonight, but at 6’7, I don’t see him being able to battle with Plumlee in the paint. 

Jimmy Butler (+1.5 Points) MORE points than Nikola Vucevic

Jimmy should be in line for a big scoring game tonight. MIA is fighting for a playoff spot, and Jimmy has been adamant that they have to play harder on a nightly basis, something I think he’ll take the lead on. Additionally, both Dragic and Herro will sit tonight, which should give a slight bump to Butler’s minutes and usage rate. On the other side of the ball, Vucevic has struggled in his past two games. He’s only taken 12 and 13 shots in these games and has scored 9 and 18 points respectively. He’s clearly taken on more of a playmaking role, and I think that continues tonight.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

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NEED TO KNOW

Sabonis, Turner Out, McDermott, Lamb, Bitadze Questionable: Without any big men last game, Oshae Brissett ($4,200 DK and $5,200 FD) got the start at the 5 and played 42 minutes, putting up 23-1-12. I would like him again if Goga sits. If McDermott and Lamb sit again, I would like both Levert and Brogdon.

Dragic, Herro, Oladipo Out: Without Dragic and Herro, I think Jimmy, Duncan, Nunn, and Igoudala all get value boosts. My favorite is Jimmy Butler ($9,500 DK and $9,400 FD), who should see a slight uptick in his minutes and will see even more usage than he normally does tonight. MIA is fighting for a playoff spot, so I expect them to treat this like a playoff tilt.

Derozan, Gay Questionable: Even if these guys sit, it’s still very difficult to predict what happens with the Spurs. If both sit, I would take a flyer on Lonnie Walker ($4,000 DK and $3,600 FD), who put up 18-3-1 last game and led the Spurs in minutes.

Kleber, Porzingis, Richardson Questionable: If all of these guys sit, there would be some major minutes opened up in this lineup. If both Kristaps and Maxi sit, I would definitely like Cauley-Stein ($3,100 DK and $4,300 FD), who’s way too cheap on DK and should see 30+ minutes. If Richardson sits, I would like Hardaway ($4,200 DK and $4,100 FD), who would see more shots and minutes as a result. 

Schroder, AD, Drummond, Morris Probable, Gasol, KCP Questionable: The probable guys will probably all play, making KCP the only relevant news here. If he sits, I would like whoever takes his spot in the starting lineup… but that’s it.

DEN not yet submitted: DEN played last night, so look out for potential rest candidates. Also, Barton got injured yesterday and will definitely be sitting, so take a look at whoever starts in his place.

HOU not yet submitted: There has been a report that Wood will sit tonight, making Olynyk ($6,700 DK and $5,000 FD) a great play (especially on FD). Keep an eye out for other news out of HOU as well, since they’re playing in a B2B.

4/24 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPPOptimizers & Player Projections, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Caris Levert ($8,100 DK and $8,200 FD)

Indiana will once again be missing Sabonis and Turner, and also might be without both Lamb and McDermott. As a result, Levert and Brogdon become the very clear go-to guys for IND, and I think they carry the scoring load tonight. I like both guys, but the reason I went with Levert is that he gets TONS of value from his player profile. DET is really bad at guarding players who attack the rim aggressively and can finish with contact; I expect Levert to take advantage of the lack of rim protection on DET and have a big night in the paint.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Rudy Gobert ($8,300 DK and FD) 

I haven’t been high on Gobert in a while, but he couldn’t ask for a better matchup tonight against the hapless Timberwolves. The T-Wolves have given up over 116 points in each of their last 10 games… No, that's not a typo. They simply do not play defense and the Center position is no exception. Expect Gobert to flirt with a 20-20 tonight if he gets his usual 30-35 minutes.

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TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/24 AC Projection Tables

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!