NBA DFS Analytics: April 21st


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QUICK HITTERS (4/21)

- Today's main slate features 12 games. ATL, BKN, LAC, MIN, NYK, POR, and SAC are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIN v SAC at 238.5   points. The game with the lowest over/under is CHI v CLE at 210 points.

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Unbelievably excited to be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Joe Harris MORE than 2.5 3 Pointers Made

With the number of 3 pointers that Joe Harris should take tonight, I think you have to think that he'll make 3+. He took 6 last night, and I actually think there’s a chance he takes more than that tonight without KD and Harden. Kyrie put in tons of energy last night, so I think he could opt to be more of a facilitator tonight as a result which would be very good for Harris’ chances to get a lot of threes off.

Moses Brown MORE than 8.5 Rebounds

The Pacers have one of the most depleted front courts I’ve seen tonight. Sabonis, Turner, and Sampson are all Out, and Bitadze is questionable. If Bitadze sits, I legitimately have no clue who the Pacers will start at the Center position. Whoever it is, Moses Brown should be able to dominate that player on the glass. Even if Bitadze plays, there would likely be times throughout the game where Brown is on the floor without Goga, leaving him with an excellent opportunity to suck up the boards in those scenarios.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

Promo Code: AC 
NEED TO KNOW

Claxton, KD, Harden, Tyler Johnson Out: These are the same exact guys that were out yesterday, so nothing new here. After watching the game yesterday, I’m definitely a lot more confident about Blake Griffin ($5,100 DK and $5,500 FD) than Deandre Jordan; even if Jordan gets the start, the Nets have made it clear they prefer to play with BG at the 5. I also think you have to consider Shamet ($4,600DK and $4,800FD), who ascends  to one of the primary playmakers without KD and Harden playing. 

Sabonis, Turner, Jakar Sampson Out, Bitadze, Lamb, McDermott Questionable: Without Sabonis and Turner, I think you have to strongly consider Bitadze ($4,200 DK and $5,400 FD) if he plays, who would be the starting Center and should get a large number of minutes with no other bigs available. I also don’t hate Oshae Brissett ($3,100 DK and $3,800 FD), who might have to play some small-ball 4/5 if Bitadze sits tonight.

Dort Questionable, Roby, Muscala, SGA Out: If Dort comes back, all it’ll do is make me even less excited about virtually every player on the Thunder. I do like Tony Bradley ($4,100 DK and $4,900 FD), who should be able to dominate on the boards against a depleted IND frontcourt.

Tobias Harris, Simmons, Seth Curry, Embiid Questionable: If any one of these guys plays, I would definitely get them in your lineup; they would be the primary playmaker and would see tons of shots/usage. If none of them play, I would definitely look at both Shake Milton ($4,300 DK and $4,800 FD) and Tyrese Maxey ($3,000 DK and $3,500 FD), who would have to take on playmaking/scoring roles with everyone out and would be far too cheap in that situation. 

Oladipo Out, Bam, Jimmy, Herro, Dedmon Questionable: TONS of news here, and it all depends on who plays and who sits. If all of these guys sit (which is very possible), I would really like Achiuwa ($3,400 DK and $4,000 FD), who would be virtually the only big on MIA and would therefore get tons of minutes. I would also really like both Dragic ($5,200 DK and $5,600 FD) and Nunn ($5,300 DK and $5,400 FD), who become the go-to playmakers without Jimmy/Bam/Herro/Oladipo playing. 

JoVal Out, Brooks, Jackson Jr Questionable: With JoVal Out again, Xavier Tillman ($4,200 DK and $5,000 FD) becomes an increasingly interesting option; he got the start last game and put up 18 and 14 (!). I also like Ja ($7,200 DK and $6,800 FD), who’s usage rate increases as a result of JoVal sitting. Jackson Jr would be on a minutes restriction if he somehow played (which makes him unplayable), and Brooks coming back would only impact a guy like Bane. 

POR not yet submitted: I’m assuming Damian Lillard continues to sit, and there are some definite rest candidates on POR tonight as a result of the back-to-back (McCollum, Powell, etc). I also expect Nurkic to sit. Keep an eye out.

LAC not yet submitted: Similar situation here with the Clippers. I could see multiple guys sitting tonight because of the B2B, so make sure you keep an eye out for the news. Kawhi will definitely sit, so PG continues to be a good play if he plays on the B2B.

MIN not yet submitted: MIN is also on a B2B, so I could see people sitting from here as well. Keep an eye out. Probably fewer rest candidates on MIN than on LAC and POR.

SAC not yet submitted: SAC is on a B2B, so I could see certain guys sitting. But, at the moment, I have no reason to believe that anyone besides Bagley and Holmes will be out.

4/21 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Landry Shamet ($4,600 DK and $4,800 FD) 

I wrote about Shamet last night, and I think he is a strong play again tonight. Despite going for over 30 DK points at 4.4K yesterday, his salary only bumped up to 4.6K tonight. I think he finds himself taking 10-12 shots again and should have no problem scoring 30+ DK points in a solid matchup against the Raptors.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Caris Levert ($7,600 DK and $8,200 FD)

Levert is a bit pricey tonight, but I think he makes for a really interesting GPP look with Sabonis out and against the Thunder. He takes a ton of shots (averaging ~19/game over his last 4 games) and does a solid job on the boards and passing the ball. What i’m most interested in about him though is his ownership, which I expect to be around the 10% mark in a game where he has 40-50 DK point potential.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today! 

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/21 AC Projection Tables

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!