NBA DFS Analytics: April 1st


 

Announcements

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Quick Hitters (4/01)

- Today's main slate features 7 games. BKN, DET, MIA, SA are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is WAS v DET at 222 points. The game with the lowest over/under is ORL v NO at 213 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Allen, Nance Out, Dellevadova, Love Questionable, Windler Doubtful: Without 2 starting big men, Hartenstein ($3,700 DK and $4,000 FD) becomes an excellent value play. He had 5-7-14 last time out, and he’s locked in for 25+ minutes with the lack of front court depth that CLE has tonight.

Diallo, McGruder Out, Smith, Ellington Questionable, Doumbouya Probable: With Diallo out, there are some bench minutes opened up as a result. If both Smith and Ellington don’t play, I think a good amount of those minutes go to Cory Joseph ($4,200 DK and $4,500 FD). However, if Smith and/or Ellington play, I think they are the ones that get those minutes.

Gafford, Bertans Out, Neto, Beal Questionable: Wow, what a shocker. Beal is questionable, and I’m telling you that if he doesn’t play, you have to get Westbrook ($11,000 DK and $11,300 FD) into your lineup. Westbrook has been going off without Beal in the lineup, and I don’t think tonight is any different (if Beal sits), despite a tough matchup against a solid defense in DET.

Harden, Griffin, Durant Out: Without Harden tonight, Kyrie ($9,800 DK and $10,000 FD) basically becomes a must play; I could see him having a 40-10-5 night without the usage and shots of Harden. I also like Harris ($5,500 DK and $4,800 FD), who’s very cheap and is the second highest priced player on BKN tonight. Against a high-pace, poor defensive CHA team, I like both of these guys a lot tonight.

Lonzo, Zion Out, Ingram Doubtful: With all of these guys out, I’m liking virtually every guard on the Pels (Lewis, Walker, Bledsoe, Hart); they should all see increased minutes, and without their two top scorers, they should all get more shots up and have higher usage ratings. My favorite is definitely Lewis ($3,700 DK and $4,100 FD), who’s extremely cheap and should get around 25+ minutes tonight.

Hunter Questionable, Collins Out: With Collins out, I would like whoever starts in his place to get the biggest value boost. My guess would be Gallinari ($5,200 DK and FD), who can go off on any given night as we’ve seen. If somehow it’s Solomon Hill ($3,200 DK and $3,500 FD) who gets the start, you should definitely consider getting him into your lineup tonight given his miniscule price tag on both sites.

Beverley, Ibaka, Rondo, George Out, Morris Questionable: Without George tonight, I think Kawhi ($9,300 DK and $9,600 FD) is primed for a big night, especially in a national TV game against a DEN team that is 3rd worst in the NBA at guarding SF’s.

4/1 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Kyrie Irving ($9,800 DK & $10,000 FD)

With James Harden out, Kyrie is an extremely clear top tier play tonight. The only situation where I could see myself going in a different direction is if Beal is ruled out (in which case I’d look hard at Westbrook). Even then, I think I’d still find some room for Kyrie in my lineup. He went for 31-12-6 last game after Harden went down early, and shouldn’t have too much trouble against a Charlotte team that ranks below average this year defending the PG position.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Saddiq Bey ($5,100 DK & $5,700 FD)

I took a long look at every single Detroit player tonight, because as usual I LOVE targeting guys against the Wizards. I’ll definitely have some Plumlee and Stewart in my lineups tonight, but by far my favorite play from the game is Saddiq Bey. Bey is coming off a season worst performance, going 0/8 and 0/7 from deep. What makes me feel good about him is his projected ownership percentage of 4.4%, and that he’s shot at least 6 threes in each of his last 8 games. As we’ve seen already, he has the potential to get red hot on any given night, and I like his chances even more in a pace up matchup. Keep an eye on the injury news here, but if either Dennis Smith or Wayne Ellington sit this one out, Bey becomes one of my favorite GPP plays on the slate.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/01 AC Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Joel Embiid (PHI)

  • George Hill (PHI)
  • Killian Hayes (DET)
  • Thomas Bryant (WAS)
  • Ish Smith (WAS)
  • Lamelo Ball (CHA)
  • Eric Paschall (GSW)
  • KZ Okpala (MIA)
  • Gary Harris (ORL)
  • Karim Mane (ORL)
  • Kris Dunn (ATL)
  • Cam Reddish (ATL)
  • Lonnie Walker (SAS)
  • Keita Bates-Diop (SAS)
  • Monte Morris (DEN)

      Questionable Players:

      • Malik Monk (P) - CHA

      • Kendrick Nunn (Q) - MIA
      • Gorgui Dieng (Q) - SAS
      • Trey Lyles (Q) - SAS

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