NBA DFS Analytics: April 19th


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QUICK HITTERS (4/19)

- Today's main slate features 9 games. HOU, IND, MIA, OKC are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is PHO v MIL at 233.5   points. The game with the lowest over/under is CLE v DET at 213.5 points.

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Unbelievably excited to finally be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Nikola Jokic MORE than 25.5 Points

Jokic is going up against a MEM team that’s missing their star big man, JoVal. I think Jokic definitely looks to take advantage of the lack of size that MEM will have down low. He’ll probably have Xavier Tillman start on him, and then will see time from guys like Clarke, Tillie, and others. This is probably one of his best matchups of the season from a man-to-man matchup perspective, so I definitely think that benefits the probability of Jokic scoring a lot of points tonight.

Nikola Jokic MORE than 9.5 Assists

For virtually the same reasons as I described above, Jokic will be able to do whatever he wants on the court tonight. Once he backs down the bigs a few times, they’ll start sending a double team, at which point Jokic will be in an excellent spot to get tons of assists. I expect Jokic to have one of his most productive games of the season, and that will show up in the scoring column AS WELL AS the assist column.

Duncan Robinson LESS than 3.5 Threes Made

Conventional logic would say that you should pick the over on Duncan tonight; MIA is missing Bam and Herro (and potentially Jimmy and Dragic), which should give Duncan a lot more opportunities to get shots up. However, we can’t overlook the presence of Bam, and how that impacts Robinson’s game. Duncan comes off TONS of dribble handoffs with Bam, and that’s how he gets a lot of his open looks from three. Without Bam tonight, I’m not sure how he’ll get those looks, and I could actually see Duncan having a very tough game.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

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NEED TO KNOW

Smith Jr, Plumlee, McGruder, Doumbouya, Grant, Ellington, Joseph Out: Without all these guys playing tonight, there is A LOT of value to be found on this DET team. I really like Stewart ($5,200 DK and $4,800 FD), who always plays well without Plumlee playing. I also like Josh Jackson ($5,100 DK and $5,500 FD), who becomes one of the go-to guys offensively for DET with all these inactives.

Williams, Fournier Out, Smart, Kemba Questionable: If Smart and/or Kemba sit, I don’t think there is too much value to be found on the BOS bench. Maybe Pritchard gets some extra burn, but who knows if he’ll make anything of it. I think Jaylen ($8,400 DK and $8,300 FD), who’s coming off a game of rest and is going up against a bad CHI defense, would get more usage/shots than normal if Kemba/Smart sit.

Wiseman, Paschall, Toscano-Anderson Out, Curry, Oubre Questionable: If Curry sits, there is a lot of value opened up on the GSW team. My favorite would be Poole ($4,500 DK and $4,000 FD), because he is a great scorer who can score tons of points on any given night. I would also like Wiggins ($7,000 DK and $6,800 FD), who becomes the go-to guy offensively for the Warriors.

Seth Curry, Harris, Howard, Simmons, Hill Questionable: You’ll need to keep an eye on this, but if these guys sit, I would LOVE Embiid ($10,700 DK and $10,400 FD), who should get up even more shots than normal. I would also like some of the periphery guys like Korkmaz and Milton, who would both see more shots and usage than normal.

Bam, Herro, Oladipo Out, Butler, Dragic, Iguodala Questionable: SO much news here. With Bam Out, I like Dedmon ($3,000 DK and $3,900 FD), who put up 10 and 10 in 15 minutes yesterday. If Butler/Dragic sit, Nunn ($4,300 DK and $4,800 FD) would be a solid play as he would see a major increase in his minutes and usage.

Dort, SGA, Muscala, Roby Out: Even though Dort and Roby being out opens up some shots and usage for the rest of the Thunder team, I don’t know which one of them it’ll be. There are SO many potential guys, but Aleksej ($5,500 DK and $4,800 FD) is probably my favorite, because he’s shown he can really get it going from three.

Hachimura Out, Len Questionable: Without Hachimura, I like whoever starts in his place to get the biggest value boost tonight. If Len sits, I would love Gafford ($4,100 DK and $4,000 FD), who could get the start and would be in a potential smash spot.

Lamb, McDermott, Sabonis, Turner Questionable: SO much news here once again. If both Sabonis and Turner sit, the front court would be extremely depleted and Bitadze ($3,900 DK and $5,000 FD) would probably get the start. I think if one of them plays (and the other sits), you should play the one that plays.

JoVal Out, Winslow, Melton, Clarke, Brooks Questionable: Without JoVal, Tillman ($3,400 DK and $3,500 FD) should get the start and get a lot more minutes/touches than normal, making him a great value play. If Brooks sits, I think Bane ($4,000 DK and $3,900 FD) would probably get the start, and would be in a great position to potentially smash his low price tag.

4/19 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Isaiah Stewart ($5,200 DK and $4,800 FD) & Josh Jackson ($5,100 DK and $5,500 FD)

I couldn’t decide between these two, so I decided to put both of them. With all of the guys out for DET, I think both of these guys are excellent plays. Stewart should get the start at the C position, and he almost always is very productive when Plumlee is out. I also like Jackson, who should be the go-to guy offensively for the Pistons. At these price tags, both of these guys should be strong considerations for your cash lineups.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Dewayne Dedmon ($3,000 DK and $3,900 FD)

I have very little idea what Dedmon’s ownership will look like, but I doubt most DFS players know too much about him. However, he was the 1st big man off the bench yesterday and put up 10 and 10 in 15 minutes, making him the likely beneficiary of Bam’s absence tonight. Furthermore, he’s in an excellent matchup against a HOU team that plays terrible defense, plays at a fast pace, and is terrible at guarding Centers.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today! 

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/19 AC Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Larry Nance (CLE)
  • Zach Lavine (CHI)
  • DJ Augustin (HOU)
  • Sterling Brown (HOU)
  • Danuel House (HOU)
  • Abdel Nader (PHO)
  • Trey Lyles (SAS)
  • Monte Morris (DEN)
  • Jamal Murray (DEN)
  • Anthony Davis (LAL)
  • Lebron James (LAL)
  • Donovan Mitchell (UTA)

Questionable Players:

  • Andre Drummons (P) - LAL
  • Marc Gasol (P) - LAL
  • Markieff Morris (P) - LAL
  • Dennis Schroder (P) - LAL
  • Mike Conley (P) - UTA
  • Rudy Gobert (P) - UTA
  • Derrick Favors (Q) - UTA
  • Ersan Ilyasova (Q) - UTA

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!