NBA DFS Analytics: April 17th


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QUICK HITTERS (4/17)

- Today's main slate features 5 games. CHI, MEM, SAS, UTA, WAS are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MEM v MIL at 237.5   points. The game with the lowest over/under is CLE v CHI at 212 points.

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Unbelievably excited to finally be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Jayson Tatum LESS than 2.5 Threes Pointers Made

Tatum hasn’t taken more than 7 threes in each of his last 3 games. In the 7 games before that, he took more than 7 threes in every single one of those games. To put it plainly, Tatum is moving away from the three ball and is being far more aggressive as of late. And… it’s been working. The Celtics are going for their 6th straight win tonight, and I don’t see Tatum going away from what’s been winning them these games. 

Bradley Beal LESS than 28.5 Points

Beal played 42 minutes yesterday in an overtime win. With the injury he’s been battling (which has made him sit multiple games as of late), and on a back-to-back, I just don’t see Beal going for 30+ for the 2nd straight night. It should also be noted that last game, Beal put up 30 points in 42 minutes (more minutes than he’ll get tonight) against the NOP (a worse defensive team than DET). I could actually see Beal sitting (which would mean the MKF bet is cancelled), but I’m still liking the <28.5 points if he plays.

Chris Paul MORE than 8.5 Assists

CP3 has only had 8 or fewer assists once in his past 9 games, and I don’t see why the Spurs would make him any more likely to have one of those games tonight as opposed to any other night. The Spurs are breathtakingly average; they play at an average pace, give up an average number of points, and allow an average number of assists. I think, for those reasons, there is a better than 50% chance that CP3 has more than 9+ assists tonight.

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NEED TO KNOW

Satoransky Questionable, Lavine Out: Satoransky sat out yesterday and Coby White went off in the start, but I don’t love him with a 5k+ price tag on DK tonight against a slow-paced, good CLE defense. I would instead go to Vucevic ($9,800 DK and $9,000 FD), who should continue to be the go-to guy for CHI as a result of Lavine’s absence.

Smith Jr, McGruder, Hayes Out, Jackson Questionable, Doumbouya Probable: The Pistons are getting Grant and Plumlee back tonight, so there is no more value to be found among the really cheap DET guys. DET is playing WAS, though, which is why I really like Grant ($6,500 DK and $7,100 FD) at his mid-tier price tag tonight.

Fournier, Williams Out, Jaylen Brown Questionable: If Jaylen sits, I’m going right to Tatum ($9,500 DK and $9,400 FD), who becomes the clear go-to option and likely sees more shots and usage. I also like Thompson ($4,500 DK and $4,300 FD), who will get the start again and is going up against a GSW team that plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the NBA and gives up the 10th most points.

Paschall, Wiseman Out, Oubre Questionable: No news here, because all three of these guys have been out for a couple games at least. If Oubre plays, it takes away some value from Bazemore, Toscano-Anderson, Jordan Poole, etc.

SAS not yet submitted: SAS also played last night, and therefore also has some rest candidates. Make sure you keep an eye out.

4/17 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Jeremi Grant ($6,500 DK and $7,100 FD)

Jeremi Grant is coming off a game of rest, and he’s in a great matchup tonight against the Wizards; WAS plays at the fastest pace in the NBA, gives up the most points to opposing teams, and is REALLY BAD at guarding players like Grant. Jeremi should be fresh and ready to go in probably his most promising matchup of the season.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Daniel Gafford ($3,500 DK and $3,800 FD)

Gafford has established himself as the go-to WAS big. Although he doesn’t get the start, he finishes games and is clearly a larger part of the Wizards future than is Alex Len or Robin Lopez. At this price tag, and against a DET team that is the worst team in the league against Centers, I really like Gafford’s chances to return value, and he even has a decent chance to smash his price tag. We only have Gafford at 3.9% ownership, making him a GREAT contrarian play tonight.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today! 

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/17 AC Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Damyean Dotson (CLE)

  • Dylan Windler (CLE)
  • Davis Bertans (WAS)
  • Donte Divincenzo (MIL)
  • Abdel Nader (PHO)

Questionable Players:

  • Brandon Clarke (D) - MEM

  • De’Anthony Melton (D) - MEM
  • Justise Winslow (D) - MEM

    Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!