NBA DFS Analytics: April 15th


Announcements

1)First day of our MKF Plays of the Day Section yesterday: 3/3! Hopefully we can continue that momentum today! Read more about our partnership hereand be sure to check out the brand new ‘MKF Plays of the Day’ section below!

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QUICK HITTERS (4/15)

- Today's main slate features 4 games. CLE, GSW, MIL, SAC are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is PHO v SAC at 234.5  points. The game with the lowest over/under is BOS v LAL at 212.5 points.

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Unbelievably excited to finally be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

We started off 3/3 yesterday, so hopefully we can continue that today!!

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Jaylen Brown MORE than 22.5 points

This number just simply seems too low for Brown tonight. Last game, Tatum showed an increasing willingness to get his teammates involved; it’s likely that he’s coming to the realization that the best thing for BOS long term would be for himself to become a better facilitator. I think he continues this trend tonight, and it likely results in his scoring numbers being very similar to Brown’s. These guys should be ready to play on national TV tonight and against the Lakers, a staunch rival of theirs.

Steph Curry MORE than 33.5 points

I think Curry pops off again tonight for 35+. He’s been on a ridiculous tear lately, and I just don’t see it stopping tonight (or for that matter anytime soon); he’s scored more than 32 points in his last 6 (!) games. There’s no one in the NBA that’s playing at Curry’s level right now, and even though this line is a bit aggressive, I simply cannot bring myself to go against him. 

Chris Paul MORE than 9.5 Assists

The Suns are coming off a day of rest while the Kings played a tough game down to the wire last night, so that definitely plays to Veteran CP3’s favor. I think CP3 comes out with an emphasis on getting his teammates involved; he tends to save his large scoring outbreaks for times where he REALLY needs to put the team on his back (this tends to be in important games or in the 4th Quarter in close games). Additionally, he’s going up against the worst defense in the NBA that allows the 10th most assists to opposing teams.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

Promo Code: AC 

NEED TO KNOW

Collins, Hunter, Reddish, Young, Gallinari Questionable: Collins, Hunter, and Reddish have been out for awhile, so nothing new there. If Young ($9,100 DK and FD) plays, I will definitely be playing a lot of him tonight; he’s gotten some solid rest and is playing against a MIL team that is DREADFUL at guarding players like himself.

Giannis, Donte Questionable: If Giannis were to sit, I think Middleton ($8,300 DK and $7,800 FD) would get the largest value boost and would become a very solid play. I would also like whoever takes Donte’s starting spot if he were to be inactive.

Windler Out, Sexton Questionable: If Sexton sits again, I’m going right back to Garland ($6,600 DK and $6,700 FD), who becomes the go-to guy offensively when Sexton sits. Garland is also facing a GSW team that plays at the 3rd fastest pace in the league and gives up the 10th most points.

Fournier Out, Rob Williams Questionable: If Rob sits, you have to get Tristan Thompson ($4,100 DK and $4,200 FD) into your lineup; he would probably get the start and see a SIGNIFICANT uptick in his minutes and workload.

AD, Lebron Out, Drummond, Schroder, Kuzma, Matthews, Gasol Probable, Morris Questionable: A lot of news here, but it all boils down to a bunch of nothing (unless the probable guys sit). There’s not much value on LAL tonight.

SAC not yet submitted: SAC played last night, so I could definitely see some guys sitting. Keep an eye out for this news throughout the day.  

4/15 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Steph Curry ($10,600 DK and $10,500 FD)

After Giannis and Curry, there’s a very significant drop off in both price and ceiling opportunity. I think you have to go with either Curry or Giannis tonight, and I feel a lot more confident in Curry, even though he’s in a tough matchup against CLE. Giannis hasn’t played in a few games and could definitely have a minutes limit, while Curry has scored 42, 53, and 38 in his last three games. I don’t expect Steph to slow down tonight, either; he’s in such a special groove right now that I literally think nothing can stop him.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Cam Payne ($3,500 DK and $3,900 FD)

At such a cheap price, I could definitely see Payne returning 6x-7x value tonight. He’s in the same great matchup against SAC as his other PHO teammates, but he has the benefit of likely playing a good number of minutes in a blowout as well. Payne also gets TONS of value from his player profile due to SAC having trouble with Guards who attack the paint with aggression. Payne could be a nice contrarian play tonight.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today! 

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/15 AC Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Kelly Oubre (GSW)

  • James Wiseman (GSW)
  • Eric Paschall (GSW)
  • Abdel Nader (PHO)

Questionable Players:

  • N/A

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!