NBA DFS Analytics: April 14th


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QUICK HITTERS (4/14)

- Today's main slate features 11 games. BKN, CHA, IND, LAC, MIA, OKC, and TOR are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is WAS v SAC at 236.5  points. The game with the lowest over/under is CHA v CLE at 213 points. 

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Unbelievably excited to finally be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

De’Aaron Fox MORE than 30.5 points

In his last 2 games, Fox has put up 30 and 43 against the Jazz and Pelicans, respectively. He’s been on an absolute tear as of late, and I don’t expect that to slow down against the Wizards, who play at the fastest pace in the NBA and give up the most points to opposing teams. SAC also plays at a very fast pace, which is why I think this game will turn into a track meet; it has the highest projected over/under of all the 11 games on tonight’s slate, so that bodes really well for Fox’s chances to go for 31+. 

Kyrie Irving MORE than 28.5 points

I’m truthfully a little bit confused about this one. Without Harden, Durant, Tyler Johnson, Aldridge, Griffin, and Chiozza, I’m not sure why Kyrie is projected for so few points. He will be the overwhelming primary option tonight, and he’s also coming off a few days of rest, so I expect him to get up 20+ shots tonight. It should also be noted that Kyrie has gotten a lot of flack recently for the number of games he’s sat out this season for “personal reasons”, and I think he’s the type of player to take it to heart. He’s heard the murmurs, and he’ll probably try to put on a show on ESPN tonight to shut everyone up.

Westbrook (+1.5) MORE rebounds than Jonas Valanciunas

*The +1.5 means that Westbrook will add 1.5 rebounds to his final rebound total and that will be his number*

Westbrook averages 10.7 RPG while JoVal averages 12.7 RPG, so it’s safe to say this line makes a lot of sense. What I think gives Westbrook the edge in this one is the matchup; while he gets to play against Kings, who play at the 11th fastest pace in the NBA and give up the 2nd most points, JoVal has a tough matchup against a DAL team that plays at the 3rd slowest pace in the NBA and gives up the 8th fewest points. Just like I mentioned for Fox, the WAS v SAC game has the highest projected total and thus should bode really well for Westbrook’s rebound number tonight.

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NEED TO KNOW

Aldridge, Tyler Johnson, KD, Harden, Griffin, Chiozza Out: Without all of these guys playing tonight, I find it extremely hard to look away from Kyrie ($9,800 DK and $9,900 FD). He’ll be the CLEAR number 1 scoring option, and he’s coming off a few days of rest as well, so he should be fully rested and ready to go. I also like Jeff Green ($4,600 DK and $5,200 FD), who should also see more minutes and usage as a result of all these inactives.

Windler Out, Allen, Nance Probable, Sexton Garland Questionable: Now that Nance and Allen are likely back, we have probably seen the end of the Love and Hartenstein days. In terms of the backcourt, I would play either Sexton or Garland if the other one sits. If both play, I just think either guy is at risk of letting the other one control that specific game. If one of them plays, that guy becomes the primary ball handler and playmaker.

Bembry, Lowry, Trent, VanVleet Out: The TOR backcourt is DEPLETED, and it’s going to open up extra room in the rotation for the likes of Flynn ($5,500 DK and $5,300 FD) and Hood ($3,100 DK and $3,500 FD); both guys are underpriced given what their workloads and minutes will look like tonight, so I’m really liking both of them a lot.

Beverley, Ibaka, Leonard, George Out: Virtually every remaining LAC player gets a value boost from Leonard and George being out, because it opens up TONS of usage and shots for everyone else. I probably like Terrence Mann ($4,900 DK and $4,800 FD) the most, though; he’ll play 25+ minutes tonight and should look to be far more aggressive than normal.

Bamba, Okeke Questionable, Porter Out: Not much injury news here, but it should be noted that Wendell Carter ($6,000 DK and FD) is playing against his old team that benched him right before he was traded. I could definitely see him coming out with some anger tonight, especially with the increased minutes he could get as a result of Bamba’s Q tag.

Oubre, Paschall, Wiseman Out: These guys have been out for at least a couple games now, so the prices of the other GSW guys have adequately adjusted, making none of them very attractive plays tonight in my opinion, besides Curry ($10,500 DK and $10,300 FD), who is always a potential 50+ point fantasy play.

OKC Thunder not yet submitted: The Thunder played yesterday, so they have some potential rest candidates tonight. Make sure you keep an eye on these updates.

IND Pacers not yet submitted: The Pacers played last night, so I could definitely see Brogdon and/or Sabonis sitting, as they’ve been banged up and have taken some rest games recently; they’re clear rest candidates. 

Jamal Murray Out: Super sad news about Jamal Murray here. I’m not sure who gets the start for DEN tonight; my guess would be either Compazzo or Morris, both of whom would be playable if they were to get the start.

MIA Heat not yet submitted: The Heat also played last night, so there are definitely a few rest candidates in this game. Make sure you stay updated.

Bagley Out, Hield Questionable, Holmes Doubtful: Most likely without Holmes, I assume Damian Jones ($3,000 DK and $3,500 FD) will get the start, as he was the primary backup Center last game. I could also see Whiteside ($3,600 DK and FD) getting some burn at the C spot.   

4/14 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Russell Westbrook ($11,000 DK and $11,200 FD)

Even though he’s the highest priced player on the slate, I think it’s pretty much impossible to fade Westbrook in cash tonight. He truly could not be in a better matchup against a SAC team that ranks 2nd worst in the NBA against PG’s, has been terrible against players with Westbrook’s same profile and gives up the second most PPG of any team in the league. This game has the highest projected point total of the night, and Westbrook has slate breaking 80+ fantasy point potential. He’ll be highly owned, so I don’t hate passing on him in a GPP lineup, but he’s a cash lock for me tonight. 

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Julius Randle ($9,400 DK and $9,500 FD)

With so many studs projected to be highly owned, I have absolutely no problem going to Randle tonight in GPP lineups. We currently have him projected at 6% ownership, and he draws a great matchup against a Pelicans team that gives up the 4th most points per game of any team in the NBA. He’s coming off an excellent performance against the lakers, and should be able to dominate again in this one with his size and shooting ability.  

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today! 

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/14 AC Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Lamelo Ball (CHA)

  • Gordon Hayward (CHA)
  • Malik Monk (CHA)
  • PJ Washington (CHA)
  • Gorgui Dieng (SAS)
  • Trey Lyles (SAS)
  • Rodney McGruder (DET)
  • Dennis Smith (DET)
  • Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NOP)
  • Josh Hart (NOP)
  • Mitchell Robinson (NYK)
  • Danuel House (HOU)
  • Sterling Brown (HOU)
  • D.J Augustin (HOU)
  • De’Anthony Melton (MEM)
  • Justise Winslow (MEM)

Questionable Players:

  • Terry Rozier (P) - CHA

  • Lonzo Ball (D) - CHA
  • James Johnson (Q) - NOP
  • Garrett Temple (P) - CHI

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!