NBA DFS Analytics: April 13th


Announcements

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Quick Hitters (4/13)

- Today's main slate features 6 games. UTA, PHO, and LAL are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is IND v LAC at 228 points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAL v CHA at 213 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Collins, Hunter, Snell Out, Young Questionable, Gallinari Doubtful: If Trae Young ($9,100 DK and $8,900 FD) plays, I think you have to strongly consider getting him into your lineup; he’s going up against a TOR team without their star backcourt, and I could see him playing a VERY large usage role tonight without the touches of Snell, Galo, and Collins. If Trae sits, Brandon Goodwin ($3,500 DK and $3,800 FD) will probably get the start again, and it would be tough not to play him at that price tag.

Lowry, VanVleet Out, Watson Questionable: Without the starting backcourt, I’m going right back to Trent ($6,000 DK and $6,200 FD), who should see an uptick in his usage and shot attempts. I think virtually every Raptors starter gets a boost from Lowry and VanVleet sitting, though (Siakam, Boucher, Bembry, etc).

Kawhi, Serge, Beverley Out: Without Kawhi, Paul George ($8,700 DK and $9,000 FD) is an extremely attractive play in a game against the 5th fastest paced team in the NBA (without Turner’s rim protection tonight). He should see tons of minutes, usage, and shots, and I expect him to take the lead for the Clippers again. Similar to TOR, I like a lot of the Clippers starters (Jackson, Morris, Kennard, Zubac) as a result of Kawhi being out and the Pacers being bad defensively.

Ball, Hayward, Monk, Washington Out, Rozier Doubtful: Without these guys in the lineup, Graham ($6,300 DK and $6,600 FD) should be the go-to scorer for CHA offensively, and even though he’s in a tough matchup against a very good LAL defense, his price tag and presumed high usage make him too appealing to pass up on. I also like Bridges ($5,800 DK and $6,200 FD) in a game where he should also see high minutes and usage.

Roby, SGA, Aleksej, Muscala, Deck Out: Not much news here. With Dort and Bazley back in the lineup in addition to a tough matchup against a good Jazz defense, I’m nervous about every OKC player tonight.

O’Neale, Ingles, Clarkson Out: With these 3 guys out, I’m going to all of the remaining Jazz starters (Conley, Gobert, Mitchell, and Bojan). They each get usage and minutes boosts as a result of these inactives, and I like their matchup against an OKC team that plays at an above average pace and plays below average defense. My favorite has to be Mitchell ($9,400 DK and $9,200 FD), who’s been on a tear recently and should continue that tonight.

PHO not yet submitted: PHO is on a back-to-back, so keep an eye out for certain guys sitting.

4/13 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Devonte Graham ($6,300 DK and $6,600 FD)

At this price, and with Rozier unlikely to play, Graham is one of my favorite plays of the night. He should see increased minutes, usage, and shot attempts as a result, and he’s a guy who has an extremely high ceiling (he’s scored 40 points before). He should be the primary scorer/playmaker for CHA tonight, and I love him even in a tough matchup against LAL.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Trae Young ($9,100 DK and $8,900 FD) OR Brandon Goodwin ($3,500 DK and $3,800 FD)

Trae is questionable, but I’m playing him if he plays tonight; without Snell, Collins, and Galo, and against a TOR defense that’s missing their two best on-ball guard defenders (Lowry and FVV), I really like Trae’s chances to have a ceiling game tonight. If he sits, I’m comfortable with Goodwin, who’s extremely cheap but put up 17-8-5 in 37 (!) minutes last time out in Trae’s absence. Who knows if he gets the same minutes again, but he wouldn’t even have to in order to return value on his price tag.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/13 AC Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Cam Reddish (ATL)

  • Deandre Hunter (ATL)
  • Myles Turner (IND)
  • Anthony Davis (LAL)
  • Lebron James (LAL)
  • Alfonzo Mckinnie (LAL)
  • Victor Oladipo (MIA)
  • KZ Okpala (MIA)

    Questionable Players:

    • Andre Drummond (Q) - LAL
    • Marc Gasol (Q) - LAL
    • Kyle Kuzma (P) - LAL
    • Dennis Schroder (P) - LAL
    • Wesley Matthews (P) - LAL
    • Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA

    Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!