NBA DFS Analytics: April 11th


Announcements

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Quick Hitters (4/11)

- Today's main slate features 8 games. CLE, DET, TOR, POR are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is IND v MEM at 233.5  points. The game with the lowest over/under is TOR v NYK at 215.5 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Tucker Out, Giannis Doubtful, Middleton, Holiday, Lopez, Divincenzo Probable: SO much news here, but I’m going to assume that Giannis sits and all of the probable guys play (even though that could easily not be the case as we’ve seen this season). In that case, I like both Middleton ($8,000 DK and $7,800 FD) and Jrue ($8,200 DK and $8,700 FD). Both should get tons of scoring and playmaking opportunities without Giannis. I especially like Khris, who’s coming off some bad games and should bounce back.

Allen, Nance, Windler Out, Sexton, Garland Questionable: A ton of news here as well. If one of Sexton/Garland plays and the other sits, I’m definitely playing the one that plays, because that guy becomes the primary ball-handler for CLE tonight. Besides that, there’s no value to be found on one of the worst offensive teams in the league.

Anunoby, VanVleet, Watson Out, Lowry Questionable: These injuries would normally open up TONS of value on this TOR team, but I must admit I’m a little concerned about the matchup against the Knicks, who play at the slowest pace in basketball and give up the fewest points to opposing teams. That being said, there is still a lot of value to be found. It’s tough to look away from Trent ($5,800 DK and $6,200 FD), who’s coming off a 44 point scoring performance and is still not highly priced. I also don’t hate Siakam/Boucher, although they are priced a little bit higher.

Pistons not yet submitted: Even if Grant and McGruder are still Out today (which I expect them to be), there is not a lot of value to be found on the Pistons, especially since they’re playing against the 2nd slowest-paced team in the league, who also give up the 6th fewest points to opposing teams (LAC).

Beverley, Ibaka, Kawhi Out, Rondo Questionable: Without Kawhi, I’m going right to Paul George ($8,400 DK and $9,000 FD), who should become the go-to option for the Clippers tonight. I also like Reggie Jackson ($5,100 DK and $5,300 FD), who played 30 minutes last time out and should get around the same number tonight if Rondo sits. Even if Rondo plays, I still like Jackson at that price tag.

Oladipo, Okpala Out, Herro Questionable: Without Oladipo (and potentially Herro), I like Jimmy Butler ($9,000 DK and $9,300 FD), who should get even more shots and playmaking opportunities than normal. I also would like whoever starts in Oladipo’s place (probably Dragic).

4/11 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups. For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Khris Middleton ($8,000 DK and $7,800 FD) *If Giannis (Doubtful) sits*

I know I wrote about Middleton recently on a night where Giannis was sitting, and it went quite poorly. I’m going right back to him tonight, though, as is the nature of NBA DFS. Even though he’s played badly as of late, his price tag simply makes him too hard to look away from in a game where he should be the go-to scorer. Middleton hasn’t played since Thursday, and I anticipate him coming ready to play today after coming off some bad games.

Note: Middleton is Probable, but I’m assuming he plays tonight. If somehow he doesn’t (which probably means Jrue and Donte also won’t play), I would definitely play Portis.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Jimmy Butler ($9,000 DK and $9,300 FD)

Without Oladipo (and potentially Herro), and against a POR team that gives up the 4th most points in the NBA and is ABSOLUTELY TERRIBLE at guarding players like Butler, I’m liking Jimmy a lot tonight. He’s locked in for 30-35+ minutes (barring a blowout), and he’s coming off 2.5 days of rest as well, so I’m going to Butler against the Blazers tonight.

For our full 3 player cores for both cash & GPP, start your 1 week free trial of our AC Plus membership today!

TODAY'S PROJECTION TABLES

Viewable top 10 tables for projected +- (value), projected points, projected ownership and price discrepancies. Tables available for both Draftkings and Fanduel.

4/10 AC Projection Tables

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Otto Porter (ORL)

  • Nickeil Alexander-Walker (NOP)
  • Josh Hart (NOP)
  • Lonzo Ball (NOP)
  • Malik Beasley (MIN)
  • Myles Turner (IND)
  • De-Anthony Melton (MEM)
  • Jaren Jackson (MEM)
  • Justise Winslow (MEM)
  • JJ Reddick (DAL)
  • Gorgui Dieng (SAS)
  • Trey Lyles (SAS)
  • Mitchell Robinson (NYK)

Questionable Players:

  • Mo Bamba (Q) - ORL
  • Karim Mane (Q) - ORL
  • Chuma Okeke (Q) - ORL
  • Garrett Temple (D) - CHI
  • Maxi Kleber (Q) - DAL
  • Willie Cauley-Stein (P) - DAL

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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!