NBA DFS Analytics: June 25th


Announcements

We're doing BOTH Classic AND Showdown competitions!

1) DraftKings is offering Classic Competition OVER 2 DAYS, so you can find our projections tables and Tier plays for that in Yesterday's Newsletter!

We will ALSO be providing you guys with our Playoff Showdown Blueprint, which contains our Captain/MVP plays, Dark horse plays, as well as a sneak peak of our ownership projections for Showdown!

2) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

3) Our AC+ MLB Newsletter/Membership is OUT NOW! Our tools have been tried and tested over the first month of the MLB season, and we truly can't wait for you guys to use them. Read more about the membership here!

Snake Drafts

Never played Snake Drafts before? They're super quick and easy, and we wrote an article that's an awesome introduction on how to win/what strategy to use!

QUICK HITTERS (6/25)

- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest and lowest over/under is ATL v MIL at 225 points.

Showdown Blueprint!
(MIL vs. ATL)

This section will provide you with my #2 and #3 favorite captain plays, my #2 and #3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy! To find our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

2. Khris Middleton ($10,200 DK and $12,000 FD)

Middleton shot quite poorly in game 1 (0-9 from 3), and I’m fairly confident they’ll go to him early tonight in an attempt to get him going. He can get hot at any moment, and I don’t think it means anything that he played poorly last game - he could easily turn it around tonight and probably will with the number of touches and early looks he’ll likely get. MIL is going to feed him early, just like they fed Jrue Holiday early last game to try and get him going.

3. Clint Capela ($7,800 DK and $11,500 FD) 

Capela put up 12 and 19 in game 1, and I think he could have an even better game tonight. Brook Lopez got ABSOLUTELY KILLED in the pick and roll in game 1; he played drop coverage and limited nothing in Trae Young’s game. Tonight, I expect him to get fewer minutes due to how the PnR defense went, and that should open up a size mismatch for Capela against whichever more mobile big they play tonight (probably Portis).

Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

2. Danilo Gallinari ($5,600 DK and $9,500 FD)

With Bogdan having looked like he did in game 1, I highly doubt he has a significant role tonight, which should open up minutes for Gallinari. Also, Trae is going to have more pressure on him tonight and is thus going to look to get off the ball early, which will open up some usage for Gallinari, who’s a guy they’ve really looked to in the post this playoffs. I even wouldn’t be surprised if Bogdan sits tonight (or comes off the bench) and Galo gets the start.

3. Pj Tucker ($3,600 DK and $8,500 FD) 

Pj Tucker is locked in for tons of minutes because of his defensive versatility, so that’s not something we ever have to worry about. I think tonight, though, he could get some more minutes at that small-ball 5, in which case he would be guarded by someone bigger on defense and could therefore get more open threes as a result. Either way, considering how cheap he is, I really like Pj Tucker’s floor.

Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

The biggest adjustment that’s made tonight WILL BE how the Bucks defend the pick and roll. If they stick in drop coverage tonight with Brook Lopez, I think coach Bud should literally be fired on the spot; it’s an obvious adjustment that needs to be made, and I fully expect them to make it tonight. That’ll have a DFS impact because I imagine Brook Lopez will get fewer minutes, which would mean that Bobby Portis and Pj Tucker are some of the beneficiaries of that coaching change. I also think that the Bucks will perform a lot better offensively tonight. Middleton will shoot way better, and Giannis will continue to dominate. They will tie the series at 1 tonight if I had to guess, which means there will likely be more of them (MIL players) than ATL players in the winning lineups. 

Showdown Ownership and Point Projections for DraftKings and Fanduel (sneak peak)

To view our datasheet, which provides point projections, minute projections, and ownership projections for every player on the slate, as well as to see our #1 captain and dark horse plays, start your 1 week free trial of our AC+ NBA dfs membership!

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!