NBA DFS Analytics: February 9th, 2021

- You can download the datasheet and lineup optimizer in Excel by clicking here.

- You can read our articles on advanced analytics Here. These include articles on how to define player value, how to understand advanced matchup statistics, and more.

- Find our YouTube tutorial on how to use the optimizer and datasheet Here.


- Today's main slate features 7 games, GS, SA, and HOU are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is PHI v SAC at 231.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is NY v MIA at 209 points.

 Need to Know:

Durant Out - With KD out, I thought it made sense to look at how the other 2 Brooklyn stars (Irving and Harden) have performed in his absence. In the past 3 games Durant has sat, Harden has went for 53, 61.5, and 43.5 DK points. Irving (Q) has went for 44.8 and 49.8, (he sat against PHI as well). All solid numbers for both guys, but less deviation from their respective averages of 53.8 and 45.9 then I had expected. A more interesting look may be someone like Bruce Brown, who has played 20, 24, and 23 minutes and averaged ~20 DK fantasy points per game in the previous three games Durant has missed, well above his 14.5 season average. He is going for $3800 on DK and $4200 on FD.

Oladipo and Wood Out - Just as with last night, the Rockets injuries are likely to create some strong value plays. Tonight Gordon is back and Oladipo goes to the bench. Gordon should see a ton of usage, as he already commands a 25% usage rate with Oladipo and Wood healthy. Tate saw 29 minutes and played great last night, and Nwaba (who I was high on) saw a ridiculous 32 minutes. Tough to guess which one of the role players has a big night but the minutes and usage will certainly be there. 

Fournier, Gordon Out - With Fournier and Gordon out last time, Dwayne Bacon and Cole Anthony both started and saw ~30 minutes, even in a blowout. In a game that should me much closer against a banged up trailblazers team, Bacon ($4100 DK & FD) and Anthony ($5900 DK, $5400 FD) are both incredibly cheap. Anthony will certainly command high ownership tonight, but its hard to pass on him given the usage it looks like he will have. Vucevic should also see extra touches tonight.

DFS Analysis:

In this section we will discuss one of the metrics we use in our models, highlighting its importance. 

Stop Using DvP

Imagine the Jazz were playing the Mavericks. We would have a point guard showdown of Luka Doncic and Mike Conley. If you're familiar with DFS basketball you know that Luka Doncic averages one of the highest fantasy point outputs of any player, as such, he is typically priced the highest (or close to it). You also might know that although sometimes a viable option, Conley typically averages far fewer points, and is thus priced much lower. For this scenario we will imagine the following salaries and outcomes for a Mavs vs. Jazz matchup. 

           Luka Doncic: $11,000, 31 fantasy points scored, season average of 55 points.

           Mike Conley: $6,000, 30 fantasy points scored, season average of 28 points.

Using standard DvP calculations, the Mavericks gave up 30 points to PGs that night, while the Jazz gave up 31 points to PGs. The Mavericks would be ranked ahead of the Jazz in a standard DvP calculation.

But wait a second, the Jazz held Doncic to 24 points below his season average, whereas the Mavericks gave up 2 more points to Conley then he typically scores. 

In order to account for this, we adjust DvP according to the player's salary. Through this, we can now see that if you played Luka Doncic against the Jazz, you would've spent ~351 dollars for each point he scored. Whereas if you played Mike Conley against the Mavericks, you would've spent ~214 dollars for each point he scored. This is an astronomical difference that was completely missed by the standard DvP calculations. By comparing the average $/Pt that teams have allowed to players in certain positions across the entire season, we can create a DvP metric that accurately reflects whether a player is in a plus matchup from a positional perspective. 

Note: You can read our full article on Salary Adjusted DvP Here. The full rankings for every player in tonight's games are available in the downloadable datasheet.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out players

  • De'Andre Hunter (O) ATL
  • Kevin Durant (O) BKN
  • Killian Hayes (O) DET
  • James Wiseman (O) GS
  • Avery Bradley (O) MIA
  • Goran Dragic (O) MIA
  • LaMarcus Aldridge (O) SA
  • Derrick White (O) SA
  • Marcus Smart (O) BOS
  • Mike Conley (O) UTA
  • CJ McCollum (O) POR
  • Jusuf Nurkic (O) POR

Questionable players

  • Kyrie Irving (Q) BKN
  • Delon Wright (Q) DET
  • Wayne Ellington (Q) DET
  • Gabe Vincent (Q) MIA
  • Josh Hart (Q) NO
  • Jaylen Brown (Q) BOS
Tonight's Top 10 Players, Projected Ownership (GPP)

FanDuel Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected Ownership
RNK Player Proj Own
1 DeMarcus Cousins 37.6%
2 John Wall 31.9%
3 Eric Gordon 30.1%
4 Dwayne Bacon 26.8%
5 James Harden 21.3%
6 Cole Anthony 21.0%
7 DeAndre Jordan 20.4%
8 Terrence Ross 20.4%
9 Nikola Vucevic 20.0%
10 Dejounte Murray 19.1%


DraftKings Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected Ownership
RNK Player Proj Own
1 DeMarcus Cousins 39.1%
2 John Wall 33.6%
3 Eric Gordon 30.9%
4 Dwayne Bacon 28.2%
5 James Harden 22.6%
6 Cole Anthony 22.1%
7 DeAndre Jordan 21.5%
8 Terrence Ross 20.4%
9 Dejounte Murray 20.1%
10 Nikola Vucevic 19.7%


Read about who we are and what we do here.

The best way to know about every newsletter is to follow us on Twitter here, where we will post every time we release the days newsletter. 

If you love basketball, we have an NBA blog here.

See you tomorrow ~2 hours before tipoff!