NBA DFS Analytics: February 8th, 2021


 

- You can download the datasheet and lineup optimizer in Excel by clicking Here.

- You can read our articles on advanced analytics Here. These include articles on how to define player value, how to understand advanced matchup statistics, and more.

- Find our YouTube tutorial on how to use the optimizer and datasheet Here.

QUICK HITTERS (FEB 8TH)

- Today's main slate features 8 games, WAS, CHA, and PHO are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is CHI v WAS, at 237 pts. The game with the lowest over/under is CLE v PHO, at 214 pts.

 Need to Know:

Wood, Wall, Gordon Out. With these three out, there is going to be an incredible amount of value found in some of Houston's role players tonight. Oladipo and Cousins will obviously step into expanded roles, but with so much usage (over 80 points) out, guys like Nwaba, Tate, and Brown are interesting looks as well.

Westbrook Resting. In the past 3 games Westbrook has rested, Beal has scored 51.5, 70.5, and 64 DK points respectively, all over his season average of 49.5. At only $9000 on DK, Beal would need just 45 points to meet his salary expected points. He's a bit pricier on FD at $10800, where he would require 54 points to meet his salary expectation. (Read more about how we define salary expected points here)

Anthony Davis Out with Achilles Injury. This is big for a couple reasons, first and foremost, it opens the door for Marc Gasol to likely start, and Montrezl Harrell to see an expanded role. Harrell has been great in limited minutes this year, so he makes for an interesting look tonight. Secondarily, AD is a great defender. The Lakers are 9th in salary adjusted DvP to the PF position, and 8th to the C position. Without AD and his 10.3 rebounds a game, you can expect guys like Horford and even Bazley to have a little more room to operate inside against what is typically a tough LAL defense. 

Player Spotlight:

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

Tonight's Player Spotlight is David Nwaba. Nwaba is coming off a 14-5-1 game against the Spurs, in which he scored 25 DK FPTS in 22 minutes. With Wall, Gordon, and Wood out tonight, Nwaba is expected to start and we have him projected to play 23 minutes and score 28.5 DK FPTS. At just $4100 on DraftKings, and $5,000 on Fanduel, Nwaba is simply too cheap for the amount of usage he should see tonight. In terms of his matchup, Charlotte has been average defensively against shooting guards (13th in our salary adjusted DvP rankings), and have given up 0.3 points less per dollar than the league average to player's with Nwaba's player profile (Guard_Paint_Other).

Note: Read about our player profiles here.

We have Nwaba projected at 42.3% ownership in GPPs, and it could very well be higher. Even so, his $4100 price tag on DraftKings is simply to cheap to overlook. His $5,000 tag on Fanduel and high projected ownership give me a little more pause, but still, even on Fanduel we have him at a projected +- of +4.3.

Note: Read about projected + - here

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

  • Devontae Graham (O) CHA
  • Brandon Clarke (O) MEM
  • De'Anthony Melton (O) MEM
  • OG Anunoby (O)TOR
  • Lauri Markkanen (O) CHI
  • Otto Porter Jr. (O) CHI
  • Wendell Carter Jr. (O) CHI
  • Lonnie Walker (O) SA
  • Lamarcus Aldridge (O) SA
  • Eric Paschall (Q) GS
  • Karl Anthony-Towns (Q) MIN
  • De'Angelo Russell (Q) MIN
  • Larry Nance Jr. (O) CLE
  • Kevin Love (O) CLE
  • Jae Crowder (O) PHO
  • Abdel Nader (O) PHO
  • Chris Paul (Q) PHO
  • PJ Dozier (O) DEN 
  • Jamal Murray (Q) DEN
  • Gary Harris (O) DEN
  • Alex Caruso (Q) LAL
  • Lebron James (Q) LAL

 

Tonight's top 10 Players, Projected Points

Everyday, we will show our a table of our projections for a select statistic here. For our full projections, download the datasheet.

 DraftKings Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Luka Doncic 54.5
2 Nikola Jokic 54.3
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo 54.1
4 Stephen Curry 54.0
5 Bradley Beal 51.4
6 Karl-Anthony Towns 50.8
7 LeBron James 48.3
8 Zach LaVine 48.0
9 Fred VanVleet 46.2
10 Andre Drummond 45.7

 

Fanduel Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected PTs
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Nikola Jokic 53.6
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo 52.6
3 Luka Doncic 51.8
4 Stephen Curry 50.4
5 Bradley Beal 50.1
6 Karl-Anthony Towns 49.9
7 Fred VanVleet 47.4
8 LeBron James 46.0
9 Zach LaVine 45.4
10 Pascal Siakam 44.7

 

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