NBA DFS Analytics: February 10th, 2021

DFS Analytics

- You can download the datasheet and lineup optimizer in Excel by clicking here.

- You can read our articles on advanced analytics Here. These include articles on how to define player value, how to understand advanced matchup statistics, and more.

- Find our YouTube tutorial on how to use the optimizer and datasheet Here.


- Today's main slate features 9 games, BKN and NO are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is BKN v IND at 235 points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAL v OKC at 217.5 points.

 Need to Know:

SGA, Hill, Maledon Out. With 9 players on the injury report, every healthy body playing in OKC tonight can expect to see big minutes. The obvious looks are Diallo, Bazley and Horford, and one if not two of them are clear cash plays, but I expect all three of these guys to be heavily owned tonight, which makes for an interesting look at potential GPP plays. Justin Jackson ($3,900 DK & $3700 FD) should see big minutes tonight (we have him projected for 26.4) and is coming off a strong 22.5 DK point performance. He is also blowout proof and should play down the stretch if OKC are down big. On the other side, the Lakers are 12 point favorites, if the game gets one sided early you could see a guy like Talen Horton-Tucker ($4100 Dk & $4500 FD), who is averaging ~24 DK points over his past 3, to get close to the 30 minute mark, where I love his chances of being a high value play. 

George Out, Beverley Questionable: I discussed this in a previous newsletter but if both these guys sit, Lou Williams and Reggie Jackson become strong plays. In the previous game with this setup against the Kings, Williams went off for 39.8 DK points. We have him returning value at 27.2 DK FPTS tonight with Beverley questionable, and if he sits that number improves to 29.3. 

Jrue Holiday Out: Bucks players often get overlooked in DFS due to the pure dominance of the team this year (and thus starters getting limited minutes) but Holiday has been incredibly impactful. He has averaged nearly a nearly 20% usage rate and 35.7 DK points per game. In his absence on Monday, the Bucks went with a starting 5 of Giannis, Middleton, Forbes, DiVincenzo, and Lopez. Although the Suns are a tough fantasy matchup (they rank top 10 in salary adjusted DvP to all positions expect PF), this should be a competitive game and we project Giannis to be the 2nd highest point scorer on FD and 3rd on DK, returning value and then some on both sites.

Player Spotlight

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

Tonight's player spotlight is Zion Williamson. Zion ($8,100 DK & $8,400 on FD) is coming off an incredibly strong performance against the Rockets. After getting into foul trouble early, Zion played just 21 minutes, but went for an incredible 38.3 DK points last night, returning nearly 2 points per minute. Amazingly, his price actually decreased. We currently project him to play 33.7 minutes and score 48.6 points, which would give him a projected +- of +6.6. 

The Bulls present a great matchup for Zion. They rank 24th in salary adjusted DvP to the PF position, and players with Zion's profile have been on average, 24 dollars cheaper per point than the league average when playing the Bulls (read about our player profiles here). To top it off, both Markkanen and Carter Jr. are out tonight. 

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.
Out players
  • Kevin Durant (O) BKN
  • De'Andre Hunter (O) ATL
  • Rajon Rondo (O) ATL
  • Jarrett Culver (O) MIN
  • Otto Porter Jr. (O) CHI
  • Wendell Carter Jr. (O) CHI
  • Lauri Markkanen (O) CHI
  • De'Anthony Melton (O) MEM
  • Brandon Clarke (O) MEM
  • DeVonte Graham (O) CHA
  • Larry Nance Jr. (O) CLE
  • Kevin Love (O) CLE
  • Gary Harris (O) DEN
  • PJ Dozier (O) DEN
Questionable players
  • OG Anunoby (Q) TOR
  • De'Angelo Russell (Q) MIN
  • Karl Anthony-Towns (D) MIN
  • LeBron James (P) LAL
  • Anthony Davis (Q) LAL
  • Alex Caruso (Q) LAL

Tonight's Top 10 Players, Projected +- 

 Note: You can read about projected + - here.

DraftKings Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected + -  
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 James Harden 61.8
2 Russell Westbrook 51.8
3 Alex Len 30.0
4 Isaiah Roby 26.4
5 Denzel Valentine 34.0
6 Zion Williamson 47.9
7 Lonzo Ball 40.1
8 Damyean Dotson 21.6
9 Josh Hart 28.1
10 DeAndre Jordan 29.0


FanDuel Top 10

  Top 10 Players, Projected + -  
RNK Player Proj PTs
1 Denzel Valentine 34.5
2 Al Horford 39.3
3 Zion Williamson 48.6
4 Josh Hart 27.0
5 Andre Drummond 44.8
6 Alex Len 32.3
7 Cody Zeller 32.2
8 Terry Rozier 36.1
9 Doug McDermott 28.1
10 James Harden 58.2


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See you tomorrow ~2 hours before tipoff!