Analytic City Plus 3/3

March 3rd Banner


1) There is a TON of injury news tonight, maybe the most there's been all season. We will aim to reupload our datasheet/optimizer around 6pm to account for as much of the injury news as possible. Remember, you can also always update player injuries in live time through the 'injury updates' tab in the worksheet. I will post on our Twitter once the new datasheet has been uploaded.

2) Our 'DFS Dives' series begins Friday, March 5th!! The first question we will explore is "Does pace really matter in NBA DFS?" To do this I will take a look at player stats over the first half of the season and take a deep dive into how pace has effected their performance. Have players playing against teams that play at a high pace outperformed expectations? Have the results been different for stars vs bench players? What about for expensive players vs cheaper players?

This series will aim to take an in depth and analytical look at popular DFS statistics to see if they REALLY make a difference in player performance. 

Have a stat or question you want answered about NBA DFS? Email us and we will select our favorite question to cover in an edition of our 'DFS Dives' series! Exclusive to AC Plus members!

One Final Thing, if you're enjoying using our optimizer, send us a Tweet (or DM) @CityAnalytic! We want to show off the lineups you've been building!

Today's Optimizer And Datasheet

3/3 Excel Optimizer/Datasheet

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

3/3 Google Sheets Optimizer

Quick Hitters (3/03)

- Today's main slate features 10 games, NY & CHI are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is CHI v NO at 238.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is TOR v DET at 213.5 points.

Need to Know:

Tonight is one of the most exploitable DFS NBA nights I’ve personally ever seen. With so many guys questionable (who’s statuses will likely be given out only about 30 minutes before the game), there are going to be a TON of great value plays with lower ownership than they should have. If you put in a little extra effort tonight by keeping an eye on the injury report right up until tipoff and adjusting your lineup accordingly, you could find yourself with a ton of value plays in your lineup, and a HUGE edge on the rest of the field. It can get stressful during those last few moments before tip-off, so try to plan out who you might pivot to and how you would make them fit into your lineup if certain players were ruled out!

Lebron James Out: Without Lebron, I like so many guys on the Lakers (as will most DFS users). Schroder, Kuzma, KCP should all have no problem returning value. But by far my favorite play from this game is Talen Horten-Tucker ($3,400 DK and $3,900). He’s unbelievably cheap, and without the scoring of Lebron and AD, they’re going to need someone else to step up. I think it could definitely be THT who is a PROFESSIONAL SCORER and is just waiting to be unleashed. In fact, he had 16 points in just 19 minutes last night against the Suns. If his ownership weren't projected to be so high (over 35%), you would be reading about him in our player spotlight section.

Luka Doubtful: If Luka were to miss this game, which it looks like he will, I absolutely LOVE Jalen Brunson ($5,300 DK and $5,200 FD) tonight. He’s going to see high ownership (we currently have him projected at 22.5%), but I think he simply brings too much upside to your lineups to pass up on. He’s averaging just over 1.1 DK PPM, and has been excellent whenever given an opportunity. He likely gets the start and plays 30+ min tonight if Luka sits.

OG, Siakam, Vanvleet Out: With all of these guys out for the Raptors, there should be a lot more minutes to go around. Obviously Norman Powell ($6,700 DK and $6,800 FD) and Kyle Lowry ($8,100 DK and $8,200 FD) definitely see the biggest value boosts; without the playmaking of Siakam and Vanvleet, someone is going to have to pick up the scoring and find a way to put the ball in the hoop. I expect Powell, who is a dominant scorer, and Lowry, who has had to put the team on his back before, to both return value. Apart from that I would keep an eye on the starting lineup. If a guy like Terence Davis ($3,300 DK & $3,500 FD) finds himself starting, I have no problem using him as a cheap filler in cash/GPP lineups.

Delon Wright, Blake Griffin Out, Jerami Grant Questionable: The Pistons have already been without Wright and Griffin for a few games now, so not much changes there. However, If Jerami Grant doesn’t play, I like whoever starts in his place to see the biggest value boost. It really could be anyone out of Svi, Lee, Ellington, Jackson, or Sekou. The Pistons have tried so many different starting lineups, so it’s very tough to know who will replace Grant if he doesn’t play. Tonight could also definitely be a night for Dennis Smith Jr. ($4,900 DK and $5,500 FD) to see increased usage and playmaking opportunities if Grant were to sit. He’s coming off an all around game in which he had 7-7-4 as well as 3 steals and a block. It really all depends on Grant, so keep an eye out on his status here.

Lamb, McDermott, Sabonis Questionable: This is another one where you’ll have to keep an eye on the injury report until right before tipoff. If McDermott and Sabonis were to both sit, that would open up tons of opportunities for whoever starts in their places. Edmund Sumner ($3,200 DK and $3,700 FD) would likely be a great value play if one or both of Sabonis and McDermott are out; he played 28 minutes last game and put up 18 points. Brogdon ($7,900 DK and $7,400 FD) would also be a solid play if Sabonis were to sit; He would definitely have to pick up a lot of the playmaking duties.

Tobias Harris Questionable: Without Harris last game, Shake Milton ($5,000 DK and $4,200 FD) picked up a lot of the usage load with 26-4-4. If Tobias sits, I expect him to be a good value play again (especially on FD where he is just way too cheap). It’s also super unlikely Joel Embiid ($10,400 DK and FD) has another bad game. People will probably be scared off by him because they’re playing Gobert and the Jazz, but I think Embiid tries really hard to show the reigning DPOY who’s boss. If you’re looking for a highly contrarian play as your star, we have Embiid projected at 7.6% ownership, which would be one of his lowest percentages of the year.

Eric Gordon, House Questionable, Nwaba Out: Without the playmaking of Gordon last game, Wall ($8,300 DK and $8,600 FD) put up a huge performance with 32-5-3. I expect him to play a large usage role again if Gordon were to sit. Also, if House were to sit, whoever jumps in the starting lineup should return a lot of value; My guess would be either Tate or Brown.

Clint Capela Questionable: If Capela were to sit, I would expect the Hawks to go small with John Collins ($6,900 DK and $7,700 FD) at the 5 for the majority of the game. Collins has been dominant lately and would be a fantastic play with Capela out. His absence would also likely result in Gallinari, Hill, and Bogdan seeing increased minutes.

Evan Fournier Questionable: If Fournier sits, I like Vucevic ($10,300 DK and $9,900 FD) and Ross ($6,300 DK and $5,500 FD) to see the largest boosts; these two would have to pick up the scoring load without Fournier in the lineup.

Player Spotlight

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

To see our full results and the criteria we use to select player spotlights, check out our Player Spotlight Tracker!

Steph Curry ($9,900 DK and FD) 

I like Steph tonight in a GPP lineup for a few reasons. 

  1. This game should be a high scoring and fast paced game with two high powered offenses. Both teams rank bottom 10 in points allowed per game and the Warriors play at the 2nd fastest pace in the NBA. This matchup, especially because it’ll be the late game on ESPN, just has the feel of an up and down track meet with some crazy stat lines. Last time these two teams played, the score was 137-122 (in regulation) and Steph had 75.75 (!) fantasy points.
  2. Curry has been playing really poorly lately (37 fantasy points last game), so that, combined with the RIDICULOUS amount of value on tonight's slate, should tank his ownership. Curry is averaging just over 17.5% ownership in GPP contests this year, and there won’t be many opportunities to grab a player with 75+ fantasy point potential at around the 10% ownership mark he should see tonight.
  3. This last point is more of a gut feeling, so take what you will from it, but it’s simply time for Steph to have a pop-off game. It’s on national TV. It’s against Damian Lillard. He hasn’t had a vintage Steph performance in a while and is slipping down the MVP rankings. I just feel it.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • Devonte Graham (CHA)
  • Luke Kornet (CHI)
  • Otto Porter (CHI)
  • Hamidou Diallo (OKC)
  • Tyrese Halliburton (SAC)
  • Hassan Whiteside (SAC)

Questionable Players

  • Taureen Prince (Q) - CLE
  • Gordon Hayward (Q) - CHA
  • Cody Zeller (Q) - CHA
  • Lauri Markkanen (D) - CHI
  • Willie Cauley-Stein (Q) - DAL
  • Kelly Oubre (Q) - GS
  • Buddy Hield (Q) - SAC
  • Jabari Parker (Q) - SAC 

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!