Analytic City Plus 3/2


ACP3-2

Announcements

1) We have introduced a 'Team Exclusions' table to our Advanced Lineup Optimizers! You can find these to the right of your optimal lineup tables. By adding teams to the team exclusions table, you can limit your player pool to players from only the early games, late games or really any set of games you like! Perfect if you're playing a smaller slate.

2) It was brought to our attention that we had been using a function introduced in Excel version 2016 in our Excel optimizers. this has been substituted for an older function. If you have an old Excel version and were having trouble after adding an "X" to the GPP/Cash boxes, try it again today!

3) Our 'DFS Dives' series begins Friday, March 5th!! The first question we will explore is "Does pace really matter in NBA DFS?" To do this I will take a look at player stats over the first half of the season and take a deep dive into how pace has effected their performance. Have players playing against teams that play at a high pace outperformed expectations? Have the results been different for stars vs bench players? What about for expensive players vs cheaper players?

This series will aim to take an in depth and analytical look at popular DFS statistics to see if they REALLY make a difference in player performance. 

Have a stat or question you want answered about NBA DFS? Email us and we will select our favorite question to cover in an edition of our 'DFS Dives' series! Exclusive to AC Plus members!

One Final Thing, if you're enjoying using our optimizer, send us a Tweet (or DM) @CityAnalytic! We want to show off the lineups you've been building!

Today's Optimizer And Datasheet

3/2 Excel Optimizer/Datasheet

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

3/2 Google Sheets Optimizer

Quick Hitters (3/02)

- Today's main slate features 6 games, DEN & SA are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is WAS v MEM at 238.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is SA v NY at 215 points.

Need to Know:

Grayson Allen Out, Kyle Anderson Questionable: With Allen out last game, Desmond Bane (3,400 DK and 3,500 FD) got the start and had a really solid night, putting up 15 pts and 7 reb, so I expect him to get the start again and be a great value play tonight. If Anderson also sits, it’ll be very interesting to see who starts in his place; my guess would be Brandon Clarke (4,900 DK and 5,800 FD) who put up 16 and 12 in his last outing and is too cheap on DK. In general,  there’s lots of good value plays on the Grizz tonight even if Anderson plays; Washington plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and lets up the second most points per game.

Jimmy Butler Questionable: Without Butler 2 nights ago, Kendrick Nunn had a massive game (24-7-3). However, his price has adjusted accordingly and with his likely high ownership (assuming Butler sits), I don’t think he brings nearly as much value to your lineup tonight. I do think Tyler Herro (6,000 DK and FD), who is moderately underpriced and would definitely see more usage and scoring opportunities if Butler sits, could be an interesting play tonight. He took 10 shots and had a 14-2-4 line in his first game back last time out. You need to keep an eye on the Butler news, though, because if he plays, there isn’t much value to be found on this Heat team tonight.

Jaylen Brown Questionable: Without Jaylen Brown last game, our Player Spotlight Jayson Tatum (9,400 DK and 9,300 FD) had a large outing (51 fantasy points) in which he essentially put the Celtics on his back during crunch time. If Brown doesn’t play again, I expect both Tatum and Walker (7,300 DK and 6,800 FD) to pick up the usage and scoring role that Brown normally brings. If Brown does come back, I don’t like any Celtics players tonight. The Clippers play at the second slowest pace in the NBA and give up the 5th fewest points per game to opposing teams. Once again, you’ll have to keep an eye out for the Jaylen news. On the other side of the ball, Kawhi Leonard ($8,800 DK & $9,700 FD) makes for an interesting look against a Celtics team that has really struggled defensively as of late. If Brown sits especially, I don't hate paying up for Kawhi in Draftkings GPP contests at all.

Elfrid Payton Doubtful: As has been the case for the past 3 games, Payton is unlikely to play. Derrick Rose (5,900 DK and 6,200 FD) is still underpriced, and he’s going up against a Spurs team who is terrible at guarding players with Rose’s player profile and is thin at the guard position. Look for Rose to continue his solid play tonight.

Player Spotlight

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

To see our full results and the criteria we use to select player spotlights, check out our Player Spotlight Tracker!

Player Spotlight: Ja Morant (7,000 DK and 7,100 FD)

There are a few reasons why I think Morant is a really interesting play tonight.

  1. Matchup: The Wizards play at the fastest pace in the NBA and let up the second most points in the NBA. This bodes well for all Grizzlies players, but especially Ja, who absolutely excels in transition.
  2. Coming off a bad game: He’s coming off of a game against the Rockets where he barely played due to a blowout, so that should bring down his ownership a bit. I also think he looks to bounce back after putting up 6 points and 7 rebounds, tied for his worst fantasy performance of the year.
  3. Price Point: This is Ja’s lowest DK price of the entire year, and he’s playing in probably his best matchup. That doesn’t make sense to me, and it shouldn’t make sense to you either. 
  4. 3 Pointers: Although Ja isn’t much of a 3 point shooter, I could see him getting a lot of open looks from there tonight. Washington is terrible at guarding 3 pointers (worst in the NBA), but they are effective at guarding players with Ja’s player profile. I think Ja is a little more aggressive from behind the arc tonight which could be HUGE for his fantasy owners if he’s knocking down shots.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • Cam Reddish (ATL)
  • Taj Gibson (NY)
  • Mitchell Robinson (NY)
  • Facundo Compazzo (DEN)
  • Gary Harris (DEN)
  • Paul Millsap (DEN)
  • Anthony Davis (LAL)
  • De'Andre Hunter (ATL)
  • Rudy Gay (SA)
  • Derrick White (SA)
  • La'Marcus Aldridge (SA)

Questionable Players

  • Bogdan Bogdanovic (Q) ATL
  • Kevin Huerter (P) ATL
  • Gabe Vincent (P) MIA
  • Lebron James (P) LAL
  • Damian Jones (P) LAL
  • Jared Dudley (P) LAL
  • Kyle Kuzma (P) LAL
  • Dario Saric (Q) PHO

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!