Analytic City Plus 3/1


ACP 3/1Announcements!

We have three major announcements today! 

1) We will now be including all relevant DFS sections on the AC Plus page. This includes the addition of the 'Quick Hitters', 'Need to Know' & 'Questionable/Out' Lists. We want the AC Plus page to be the ONLY page members need to use on our site to access all our DFS content. 

2) We have introduced a "Total Ownership Cap" to the Advanced Lineup Optimizers. You will notice this next to your optimal lineup table on every optimizer (FD/DK & Excel/Google Sheets). By entering a percentage into the box, your optimal lineup will not exceed that level of projected total ownership after you optimize.

3) Our 'DFS Dives' series begins Friday, March 5th!! The first question we will explore is "Does pace really matter in NBA DFS?" To do this I will take a look at player stats over the first half of the season and take a deep dive into how pace has effected their performance. Have players playing against teams that play at a high pace outperformed expectations? Have the results been different for stars vs bench players? What about for expensive players vs cheaper players?

This series will aim to take an in depth and analytical look at popular DFS statistics to see if they REALLY make a difference in player performance. 

Have a stat or question you want answered about NBA DFS? Email us and we will select our favorite question to cover in an edition of our 'DFS Dives' series! Exclusive to AC Plus members!

One Final Thing, if you have success using our optimizer, send us a Tweet (or DM) @CityAnalytic! We want to show off the lineups you've been building!

Today's Optimizer And Datasheet

3/1 Excel Optimizer/Datasheet

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2016 or later to use AC recommended Cash/GPP settings)

3/1 Google Sheets Optimizer

Quick Hitters (3/01)

- Today's main slate features 7 games, HOU & CHA are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is CHA v SAC at 238.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is DET v NY at 214 points.

Need to Know:

Malcolm Brogdon, Jeremy Lamb both Questionable: Brogdon didn’t play last game, and TJ. Mcconnell ($6,100 DK and FD) got the start in his place. He played 46 (!) minutes and put up a 17-12-6 statline. I expect him to get the start again if Brogdon sits, and he should get even more minutes if Lamb sits as well. TJ is also going up against the Sixers (his old team) who are terrible at guarding players with TJ’s player profile; I expect him to come out aggressive and put up some big numbers if Brogdon sits. Make sure you stay updated on Brogdon and Lamb’s statuses tonight.

Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris Questionable: Tobias sat last game as well, and Embiid absolutely went off. In general, I like playing any of the Sixers big three (or both of them) if one of them is out. But I especially love the Embiid/Tobias start/sit pivot; Embiid ($10,600 DK and $10,800 FD) is again a strong play if Tobias sits and Tobias ($7,900 DK and $7,100 FD) a strong play if Embiid sits. If both sit, it should open up TONS of shot attempts and usage for basically every other Sixers player, but especially Simmons ($8,800 DK and $9,000 FD). Make sure you keep an eye out for this news because it could potentially be the biggest of the night.

Gay, Johnson, Vassell, White Out again: This is pretty old news, so prices have basically adjusted, except for Patty Mills ($4,700 DK and $3,900 FD). He’s still extremely underpriced and is in a very positive matchup against a Brooklyn team that is terrible at guarding players with Mills’ player profile. Also, Brooklyn plays at the 6th fastest pace and allows the 4th most points to opposing teams, so this should be a high scoring game. I like Mills on Fanduel especially, where he is simply too cheap at $3,900.

Eric Gordon Questionable: The rockets have been struggling mightily lately, and Eric Gordon being questionable definitely does not help their cause. If Gordon doesn’t play tonight, I think Oladipo ($7,700 DK and $7,600 FD) and John Wall ($8,300 DK and $8,600 FD) could be decent plays. They’re both in positive matchups against a CLE team that isn’t good at guarding players with their player profiles. Also, Wall has been vocal about his frustration with the Rockets struggles, and I think tonight could be a turning point for them. IF it does turn out to be a turning point, it’ll be Wall and Oladipo that lead the charge.

Hayward/Zeller Doubtful: Same as last night, it looks unlikely that Hayward or Zeller will play. And same as last night, Malik Monk ($5,500 DK & $4,900 FD) and PJ Washington ($6,200 FD & DK) would become extremely strong plays (albeit popular ones) if they do. I think another really interesting look with this news is Terry Rozier ($8,000 DK & $6,800 FD) on Fanduel. We all know what he can do and he should see pretty low ownership coming off a season worst 8pts. 

In general, tonight needs to be a night where you monitor injury news down to tip-off.

Player Spotlight

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

To see our full results and the criteria we use to select player spotlights, check out our Player Spotlight Tracker!

Jarrett Allen ($8,500 DK and $7,900 FD)

Jarrett Allen feels like a great play tonight for multiple reasons:

1) Matchup: Houston is terrible at defending players like Allen, so he gets TONS of value from his player profile. In fact, players with the same player profile as Allen have been an average of $23.4 dollars cheaper per point when facing Houston compared to the league average; that’s a big deal! Houston is also dreadful at rebounding the ball; they rank 28th (third worst) at DREB allowed per game and 22nd (8th worst) at OREB allowed per game, so Allen should be able to take advantage of them there.

2) Last game against HOU: On Wednesday against the Rockets, Allen played 37 minutes and put up a massive 26-18 stat line, scoring over 60 DK points. Houston often forces teams to go small, but that didn’t happen last game, and Allen took advantage. Same thing could happen today.

3) Minutes: Still without Drummond and Nance, Allen is really the only true big on the Cavs that gets any minutes besides Javale Mcgee. Perhaps the Cavs occasionally go small tonight with Wade or Okoro at the 5, but I doubt they do that for any meaningful minutes.  

4) Ownership: Typically this would be a night where Allen would see high ownership. He’s in a smash spot against an awful Houston team that he just dominated a few days ago. But, there are a ridiculous amount of good options at the Center position on tonight’s slate: Embiid, Jokic, Vucevic, and even Sabonis/ Zion with their dual position eligibility. I think this serves to bring down Allen’s ownership to around 20%. Another thing that may scare people off is the blowout factor; Houston got crushed last night and Valanciunas hardly played. Getting Allen at anything under 20% ownership would feel like a steal tonight in a game where he has legitimate 60 point potential.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players

  • Lauri Markkanen (CHI)
  • Otto Porter (CHI)
  • Gary Harris (DEN)
  • Paul Millsap (DEN)
  • Kevin Durant (BKN)

Questionable Players

  • Kristaps Porzingis (P) DAL
  • JJ Redick (Q) NO
  • Timothe Luwawu-Carrabot (Q) BKN
  • Jeff Green (Q) BKN
  • Tyler Johnson (P) BKN
  • Cedi Osman (Q) CLE

 

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!