Our 'DFS Dives' series begins tomorrow!! The first question we will explore is "Does pace really matter in NBA DFS?" To do this I will take a look at player stats over the first half of the season and take a deep dive into how pace has effected their performance. Have players playing against teams that play at a high pace outperformed expectations? Have the results been different for stars vs bench players? What about for expensive players vs cheaper players?
This series will aim to take an in depth and analytical look at popular DFS statistics to see if they REALLY make a difference in player performance.
Have a stat or question you want answered about NBA DFS? Email us and we will select our favorite question to cover in an edition of our 'DFS Dives' series! Exclusive to AC Plus members!
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Today's Optimizer And Datasheet
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
Quick Hitters (3/04)
- Today's main slate features 9 games, DET, GS, IND, OKC, POR, SAC & TOR are on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is SAC v POR at 236.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is NY v DET at 209.5 points.
Need to Know:
Kawhi Questionable, Marcus Morris Doubtful: Last game without Kawhi, Paul George ($8,600 DK and $7,900 FD) picked up a lot of the scoring load for the Clippers. I expect him to do so again, especially if Marcus Morris won’t be able to add in his shot making ability to the mix. He’s a really strong look on Fanduel where his price has dipped below 8K. I also like a lot of the Clippers periphery players; Ibaka, Zubac, Reggie Jackson (who had 25-7-3 last game), and others should be solid plays (assuming Kawhi sits) against a Washington team that plays at the fastest pace in the league and gives up the second most points per game.
Steph, Draymond Out: Without these two, the Warriors will really need to find other ways to score. I could honestly see it coming from a ton of different places on this team, so for that reason alone I like some of the cheap options of this team: Paschall, Bazemore, etc. However, PHX is great defensively and I could see the Warriors getting absolutely killed tonight. Three really strong (and probably popular) plays from this game tonight are Damion Lee ($3,600 DK & $3,700 FD), Brad Wanamaker ($3,000 DK and $3,900 FD) (who is the minimum on DK) and Kelly Oubre ($7,100 DK and $7,200 FD) who should see a lot of scoring opportunities and should be rested and ready to play after sitting last night. Keep an eye on the Warriors starting lineup tonight to see who fills Curry and Green's places.
Cam Johnson Out: With Johnson out, it should open up a bunch of additional minutes for Dario Saric ($3,900 DK & $4,600 FD). Saric has been fantastic in his last 2 games, and had already begun to see his minutes creep towards the 25 minute mark. I think tonight he sees 25-30 minutes and has easy 30+ fantasy point potential against a Golden State team without Curry or Draymond.
OG, Siakam, Vanvleet out again: Without these three last night, Lowry ($8,400 DK and $8,500 FD) and Powell ($7,000 DK and $7,400 FD) picked up a large chunk of the scoring load for the Raps. I expect the same to happen tonight; look for Lowry in particular to come out firing after losing to the Celtics in game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals last year.
Delon Wright, Blake Griffin out, Grant Questionable: Without Grant last night, the Pistons had a great win against a Raptors team in which 3 players scored over 20 points and another 3 scored over 10. It’s unlikely that this happens again, especially Wayne Ellington’s 8 threes. It should also be noted that the Knicks play at the slowest pace in the league and let up the fewest points, so this game has the potential to be very low scoring. That being said, Dennis Smith ($4,800 DK and $5,500 FD) is still ridiculously underpriced, coming off a 50 (!) point fantasy game, and is playing against his old team that never gave him a chance, so I bet he comes out ready to play.
Ntilikina, Rose, Payton Questionable: This is completely up in the air and you’ll have to pay attention to the later injury reports. I like whichever one of these guys that plays and/or starts. If none of them play, Quickley ($5,300 DK and $5,100 FD) is an extremely strong play, as he would likely get the start and play a ton of minutes. He put up a ridiculous 21 shots last game with Rose and Payton out.
Sabonis, Lamb Questionable: Both Sabonis and Lamb played last night, but the show was stolen by Tj Mcconnell’s insane triple double with steals. I doubt TJ does anything of the sort again even if Sabonis/Lamb sit. If both sit, I could see Sumner ($3,100 DK and $3,900 FD), who’s extremely underpriced, returning 6-7X value. I also really like Brogdon ($8,000 DK and $6,700 FD) if Sabonis sits, especially on Fanduel where he is ridiculously underpriced and I like him regardless of whether or not Sabonis plays.
Halliburton, Whiteside Out: Without these two the past few games, basically everyone on this team has played well. For that reason along with their plus matchup, I honestly like nearly every Kings player this game due to the fact that most of them are underpriced; Barnes, Hield, Holmes, Bagley, and Fox all have a solid chance at returning value, and I expect them all to continue playing well against a Portland team that gives up the 6th most points in the NBA. My favorite plays out of these guys are the bigs, Holmes ($6,400 DK and $7,000 FD) and Bagley ($6,700 DK and $6,800 FD); Kanter should have a lot of trouble dealing with their athleticism in the paint.
Bam, Butler Questionable: If neither of these guys play, I would like all three of Herro, Robinson, and Dragic. Although the Heat put up only 80 points last game without Jimmy, I expect them to play a lot better tonight if he sits. I specifically Like Herro ($6,100 DK and $6,000 FD), who played poorly last game, would see close to 0% ownership, and should have a bounce back game while being a lot more aggressive if these two stars don’t play. Make sure you stay updated.
In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.
To see our full results and the criteria we use to select player spotlights, check out our Player Spotlight Tracker!
We are bringing AC Plus members 2 player spotlights today! The first is from our collaboration with Heating Up DFS. They provide a daily writeup on EVERY single NBA matchup and a favorite play from every game. Really impressive content and I highly recommend checking them out if you haven't yet: heatingupdfs.net
Anyways, Heating Up DFS's player spotlight is Kyle Lowry ($8,400 DK & $8,500 FD)
"I don't envision the Raps getting blown out again like they did last night and I think Lowry will be a big reason for that. He should get an insane amount of usage with Siakam, OG and VanVleet out. With Powell and Davis being guarded by Brown and Tatum, I think those guys could struggle. That should lead to Lowry having to do it all on his own, which provides a ton of upside. I think for his role right now, he is just too cheap. The Celtics have allowed the most points to PGs over the last two weeks at just over 25 PPG. Kemba will be guarding him most of the game and he has a -1.04 DRPM this season. That is below average for PGs, so Lowry should be efficient with his minutes. With this being the last game before the All-Star break, Lowry should be full go and put it all out on the table. He has tremendous upside and should have a high usage in a good matchup. What more is there to ask for?"
Player Spotlight #2
Rodney Hood (3,000 DK and 3,500 FD)
Since, we already have the higher priced Lowry on your radar, let's talk about a guy who almost definitely isn't. Rodney Hood is the minimum price on both sites, so if you’re looking for a shot in the dark play who could potentially return a lot of value, Hood could be a very interesting low ownership look in GPP lineups.
- Hood is going up against the Kings, who are terrible at guarding wings (2nd to last in the league in salary adjusted DvP), and who let up the most points in the league to opposing teams. They also play at the 10th fastest pace. I expect this to be a high scoring game.
- Hood is a great scorer who has shown consistent flashes throughout his career that he can go for 20 in a game. Similarly to Wayne Ellington last night, you could grab Hood as a diamond in the rough and hope that he does enough to return value. He has definite pop-off game capability. It’s obviously not likely, but I could see a world where Hood puts up a 20-5-3(assists) statline tonight.
- Opportunity. Hood only put up 5 points last night, but he did it while taking 5 threes and playing 27 minutes. If he gets hot, the opportunity for a big night is there.
Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.
- Taj Gibson (NYK)
- Mitchell Robinson (NYK)
- Facundo Compazzo (DEN)
- Grayson Allen (MEM)
- Lamarcus Aldridge (SAS)
- Rudy Gay (SAS)
- Devin Vassell (SAS)
- Derrick White (SAS)
- Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
- JJ Redick (Q) - NOP
- Kelly Oubre (TBD) GS
- Al Horford (Q) OKC
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!