AC+ NBA 3/31


1) Tonight is the final night of our AC+ Member Contest! For the full rules and current standings, click here: AC Plus Member Contest Rules/Standings.

2) You may have noticed that this newsletter title (and your plan name) has been changed to AC+ NBA. That's because we will be providing our datasheets, optimizers & player projections for MLB DFS this season! Our expected launch date is mid-late April! Be sure to follow us on Twitter for updates!

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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets

3/31 Excel Optimizer/Datasheet

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

- Today's main slate features 10 games. PHO is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is HOU v BKN at 231 points. The game with the lowest over/under is CHI v PHO at 217 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Doumbouya Questionable, Ellington Doubtful, Smith Jr. Out: With Ellington unlikely to play, I think you should strongly consider getting whoever starts in his place into your lineup; my guess would be Diallo ($4,600 DK and $5,800 FD), who’s coming off a 19-3-10 game and is in a great matchup against a POT team that’s terrible at guarding athletic wings.

Brown, Langford Questionable, Semi, Tristan Out: If Jaylen sits, Tatum ($8,700 DK and $9,000 FD) becomes a solid option, as he becomes the clear primary scorer tonight for BOS. I don’t love anyone on the Celtics if Brown plays, due to the fact that DAL plays at the 3rd slowest pace in the NBA and gives up the 12th fewest points.

Gordon, Nwaba Out, Wall Questionable, Wood, House Probable: If Wall sits, I think you have to look at getting Wood ($8,300 DK and $7,700 FD) into your lineup; he’s coming off a lot of rest, playing against a BKN team that plays at the 9th fastest pace in the NBA, gives up the 5th most points, and is the 8th worst team at guarding Centers. 

Bazley, Dort, SGA, Horford, Aleksej, Muscala Out, Jerome Questionable: The Thunder are EXTREMELY thin tonight, which is why I like most of the players on the team to return value. I probably like Kenrich Williams ($4,400 DK and FD) the most out of anyone, though, because I could see him getting into the starting lineup and getting way more minutes than normal. I think virtually every guard/wing on OKC gets a boost from the injuries tonight.

Bembry, McCaw, Watson, Harris, Lowry Out: Without Lowry in the lineup tonight, I think every starter (Pascal, Fred, OG, Trent) gets at least a slight value boost. I really like Fred ($7,700 DK and $7,400 FD), who becomes the primary ball handler and gets TONS of value from his player profile tonight due to the fact that OKC is terrible at guarding players like Fred (and they’re missing their best perimeter defender - Dort). I could also see Trent ($5,100 DK and $4,700 FD) having a breakout game for the Raps with what should be increased usage tonight.

Winslow Out, Allen Questionable: If Grayson sits (which I bet he does), I think Bane ($3,700 DK and $3,600 FD) becomes a must play. He’s extremely cheap and got the second half start last night because of Allen’s injury. He played well in his minutes, too, putting up 17-3-4. Bane has smash potential tonight.

Donovan Mitchell Out: Without Mitchell tonight, it’s likely Ingles ($5,600 DK and $5,500 FD) who gets the biggest value boost; he almost always starts when a starter is missing, and he usually plays well in those games with his increased offensive role. Tonight should be no different, especially against a fast-paced, below average defense (MEM).

Bagley Out, Whiteside Questionable: If Whiteside sits again, Holmes ($7,500 DK and $8,000 FD) once again becomes a great play. He’s locked in for 30+ minutes and had 23-3-12 last game.

Lavine, White Questionable, Temple Doubtful: If Lavine sits, I like Vucevic ($9,100 DK and $8,800 FD), who would theoretically become the primary scorer for the Bulls. White was out last game, so if he sits it wouldn’t be that big of a deal, but make sure you keep an eye on him because if he plays, he probably slightly decreases the values of guys like Satoransky and Arcidiacono.

3/31 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Joe Ingles (5,600 DK and 5,500 FD)

Without Mitchell in the lineup tonight, it’s virtually a foregone conclusion that Ingles will get the start; he always gets the start whenever any of the starters (besides Gobert) sit. In addition to the fact that he should see increased minutes and usage, he’s going up against a MEM team that plays at the 8th fastest pace in the NBA and gives up more points than average to opposing teams.

Kenrich Williams (4,400 DK and FD)

Without Aleksej tonight, I think there’s a good chance that Kenrich gets his starting spot. Even if he doesn’t, though, I still like his chances of returning value. He got 21 minutes last game and should get far more tonight (whether he starts or not), and he’s going up against a TOR team that isn’t great at guarding players like himself, plays at the 12th fastest pace in the league, and gives up the 11th most points to opposing teams.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Andre Drummond ($7,800 DK & $5,200 FD)

I’m not really sure what Drummonds ownership will look like tonight, (He projects at ~13% on DK and ~25% on FD) but I absolutely love taking a risk on him in his first game back. On FanDuel, I think the $5,200 price tag is just ridiculous for a guy who was routinely priced between 8-9K when he was playing. Even at $7,800 on DK, I like Drummond enough tonight and think he has a high enough ceiling to take the risk in a GPP contest. His usage rate on the Cavs was 31%, only 1.5% lower than Nikola Jokic’s current rate of 32.5. Without Lebron and AD, I think he becomes one of the primary options for the Lakers and gets his usual double-double while putting up 10-15 shots. 

DeJounte Murray ($7,000 DK & $7,600 FD)

PG’s against the Kings have been $$ this entire season, and i don’t see tonight being any different. This pace up matchup bodes well for Murray, who is coming off three straight games with at least 39.5 DK points. Just two nights ago, he went for 23-8-7 against the Kings and I don’t see any reason tonight is much different. He has 45+ point upside and shouldn’t be too highly owned on a slate with Harden, Luka, Irving, Lillard, and some chalkier PG plays like Conley/Maledon. (Projected 8.6% ownership)

Gary Trent Jr. ($5,100 DK & $4,700 FD)

There’s a chance Trent Jr. is my favorite play on the slate tonight. He was already the runaway leader in minutes last time out for the Raptors (38 minutes & 32.5 DK points), and should only see additional usage tonight with Lowry being ruled out. He draws an excellent matchup against a beat down OKC team, and the Raptors are in MUST WIN territory if they want to start making a playoff push. At $5,100 Trent feels like both a solid GPP & Cash look tonight in a game where he likely sees 30-35 minutes and puts up 10-15 shots.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Victor Oladipo (MIA)

  • KZ Okpala (MIA)
  • Killian Hayes (DET)
  • Rodney McGruder (DET)
  • Nassir Little (POR)
  • Willie Cauley-Stein (DAL)
  • JJ Redick (DAL)
  • Lamarcus Aldridge (BKN)
  • Kevin Durant (BKN)
  • Mitchell Robinson (NYK)
  • Jaren Jackson (MEM)
  • Juwan Morgan (UTA)
  • Keita Bates-Diop (SAS)
  • Trey Lyles (SAS)
  • Lonnie Walker (SAS)
  • Abdel Nader (PHO)
  • Frank Kaminsky (PHO)
  • Anthony Davis (LAL)
  • Lebron James (LAL)
  • Rodions Kurucs (MIL)
  • Bobby Portis (MIL)
  • PJ Tucker (MIL)

    Questionable Players: 

    • Jeremy Lamb (Q) - IND

    • Doug McDermott (Q) - IND
    • Kendrick Nunn (Q) - MIA
    • Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
    • Landry Shamet (Q) - BKN
    • Josh Okogie (Q) - MIN
    • Derrick Rose (Q) - NYK
    • Jahmi’us Ramsey (Q) - SAC

      Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!