AC Plus 3/30


 

Announcements

1) We are extremely excited to announce our first ever AC Plus Member contest! Compete for a chance to win a FREE LIFETIME AC PLUS Membership! For the full rules and current standings, click here: AC Plus Member Contest Rules/Standings.

Remember, ONLY ENTER 1 OF THE CONTESTS OR YOUR ENTRY WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED IN THE FINAL STANDINGS!
Contest Link #1 (only 1 link tonight)

2) Check out our most recent blog post which proposes 3 changes to DraftKings scoring!

3) Let us know if you're having any trouble with any of our tools! The best way to reach us is Twitter DM! You can also find our full tutorial video on how to use our datasheet & optimizer here

4) If you're looking for an NBA DFS Discord server, we have our very own channel in a group with nearly 1,000 active DFS members! Join here: DFS Coach/Analytic City Discord!

Today's Optimizers and Datasheets

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

Quick Hitters (3/30)

- Today's main slate features 4 games. LAC and WAS are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is CHA v WAS at 228 points. The game with the lowest over/under is ORL v LAC at 215 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Today is not only a small slate, but it has perhaps the fewest number of impactful injuries that I’ve ever seen on an NBA main slate. Make sure you keep an eye on the injury news throughout the evening, though, because that could definitely change.

Beal, Neto Questionable, Gafford, Bertans Out: You’ll have to keep an eye on the injury report for the Wizards tonight just like you had to last night, but if Beal sits again, Westbrook ($10,900 DK and $11,000 FD) would be primed for yet another big performance (he put up 35-21-14 last night) against a below average CHA defense. 

Paul George Questionable: I wouldn’t be shocked if we were to find out at around 6:00-7:00pm that Kawhi is sitting tonight for rest (on a back to back). At the moment, though, I would play either George ($8,600 DK and $8,700 FD) or Leonard ($8,800 DK and $9,600 FD) if the other one doesn’t play; these are the 2 go-to guys, and if only one of them plays, that guy becomes the primary playmaker.

3/30 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Russell Westbrook (10,900 DK and 11,000 FD)

I’m going right back to Russell tonight, even though he’s on a back to back. He absolutely went off last night (35-21-14), and he’s in a pace up matchup (14th fastest pace) against a CHA team that gives up the 12th most points to opposing teams. I like Westbrook a little less if Beal plays, but I would still find it hard to fade him in a cash lineup.

Devonte Graham (6,100 DK and 5,300 FD)

Virtually every statistic points towards Graham having a big night tonight. He’s playing against the Wizards, who play at the fastest pace in the NBA and give up the most points. WAS is also TERRIBLE at guarding players like Graham, and when you combine that with Devonte coming off a 30 point performance, I really like his chances of returning value tonight.

Gordon Hayward (7,600 DK and 7,000 FD)

I like Hayward tonight for basically the same reasons I like Graham (and a lot of other CHA players): he’s playing against WAS, who is the fastest-paced team in the league and gives up the most points to opposing teams. Hayward, like Graham, gets tons of value from his player profile against a team that isn’t good at guarding players like himself.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Cody Zeller (3,800 DK and 4,600 FD) 

You probably get the idea now, but I LOVE the Hornets guys tonight. Zeller is underpriced and I could see him getting slightly more minutes than normal as it’s likely the pace of the game makes Bismack fatigue easily. In addition to WAS’s pace and poor defense, they are the third worst team in the NBA at defending Centers. We currently have Zeller at 9.7%, which would be an absolute steal if that stands.

Deni Avdija (3,700 DK and 3,600 FD)

Deni, who’s only $100 above the price minimum on FD, is a great value play tonight. You’ve probably noticed that every single CASH and GPP core play tonight comes from the WAS v CHA game, and it’s because of the projected scoring. CHA is also the 2nd worst team in the NBA at guarding SF’s, and they give up the second most 3 pointers in the NBA, so I could see Deni smashing his price tag tonight and getting a lot of shots up from three. We also have him projected at only 3.5%!

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Lamelo Ball (CHA)

  • Thomas Bryant (WAS)
  • Ish Smith (WAS)
  • Monte Morris (DEN)
  • Joel Embiid (PHI)
  • George Hill (PHI)
  • Kris Dunn (ATL) 
  • Cam Reddish (ATL)
  • Abdel Nader (PHO)
  • Cole Anthony (ORL)
  • Gary Harris (ORL)
  • Jonathan Isaac (ORL)

    Questionable Players: 

    • Malik Monk (Q) - CHA

    • Greg Whittington (Q) - DEN
    • Deandre Hunter (Q) - ATL
    • Serge Ibaka (Q) - LAC
    • Patrick Beverley (Q) - LAC
    • Rajon Rondo (Q) - LAC
    • Karim Mane (Q) - ORL
    • Terrence Ross (P) - ORL

      Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!