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2) Check out our most recent blog post which proposes 3 changes to DraftKings scoring!
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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
- Today's main slate features 11 games. TOR is on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIN v BKN at 240 points. The game with the lowest over/under is MIA v NY at 207 points.
NEED TO KNOW
Beal Questionable, Bertans Out: If Beal sits tonight, you have to strongly consider getting Russ ($11,000 DK and FD) into your lineup. Westbrook usually channels his OKC days when Beal is out, and I expect him to do so tonight (if Beal rests) against an IND team that plays at the 8th fastest pace in the league and gives up the 10th most points to opposing teams.
Robinson Out, Randle, Bullock Questionable: With Robinson Out, Nerlens Noel ($4,800 DK and $5,400 FD) should get the start and play a solid number of minutes tonight at the Center position. I don’t love him, though, against a MIA team that is one of best defenses in the league. If Randle sits, RJ ($7,200 DK and $7,700 FD) could be a solid play; he would be the primary playmaker for the Knicks and would likely see an uptick in his shots and usage.
Jaylen, Semi, Tristan Out: Without Jaylen, I really like both Tatum ($8,600 DK and $8,500 FD) and Kemba ($6,800 DK and FD) tonight. Kemba is coming off a game of rest and is playing against a NOP team that isn’t good at defending guards like Walker, and Tatum should be the go-to scorer tonight without Brown. NOP gives up the 6th most points to opposing teams, so there is A LOT of value to be found on this BOS team tonight.
SGA, Dort, Bazley, Muscala, Horford Out: The Thunder have really committed to playing their young guys a lot of minutes, which is why I love Maledon ($5,800 DK and $5,100 FD) tonight; he led OKC is minutes last game (37), and put up 22-4-8, and I expect him to play well again tonight against a DAL team that is DREADFUL at guarding players like Maledon.
Dennis Smith Out, Grant Probable, McGruder Doubtful: Without Smith and McGruder last game, Wayne Ellington ($4,300 DK and $3,900 FD) led the team in scoring with 15 points. At such a low price, I really like Ellington’s potential to smash his value tonight, especially against a TOR team that is the worst in the NBA at guarding SG’s.
Bembry, McCaw, Watson Out, Lowry Questionable: If Lowry plays, I don’t LOVE anyone from the Raps tonight as they’re playing against a slow-paced, good defensive DET team. However, if Lowry sits, I think Fred Vanvleet ($7,900 DK and $7,400 FD) gets a solid value boost; last night (with Lowry sitting), Fred went for 20-8-5 in 38 minutes.
Bagley Out, Whiteside Questionable: If Whiteside sits (in addition to Bagley), I think you have to get Holmes ($7,600 DK and $7,900 FD) into your lineup; he would likely be locked in for 35+ minutes and should kill the Spurs on the glass tonight (SAS is 29th in DREB allowed and 16th in OREB allowed).
Allen, Love, Dellavedova Out, Prince Questionable: Without Allen in the lineup 2 nights ago, Dean Wade ($4,800 DK and $3,800 FD) played 31 minutes and put up 13-2-6. With his low price tag and his great chance to get 25+ minutes, Wade becomes a solid cheap option in your lineup.
3/29 CORE PLAYS
This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups
In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups.
Malcolm Brogdon (7,000 DK and 6,500 FD)
It wouldn't be a complete writeup without looking at someone from the team the Wizards are playing. Tonight, that player is Malcolm Brogdon. His price has slipped all the way down to 7K, and he finds himself against a Wizards team that ranks dead last in salary adjusted DvP to PGs, plays at the fastest pace in the NBA, and gives up the most points per game of any team in the NBA. Brogdon has quietly continued to be a solid performer since Levert's return (36 DK points last game), and should be an extremely safe play in a spot where he only needs 35 points to return 5X value.
Moses Brown ($6,500 DK & $6,800 FD)
Brown is a fairly obvious cash play tonight. Until he shows you otherwise, there is no reason to expect anything less than 15-15 from this guy on a nightly basis. he is an absolute rebound machine and with Horford officially done for the Thunder, he should step into a starting and high usage role for the forseeable future.
Russell Westbrook ($11,000 DK & FD)
I don't really think there is a truly safe high tier option tonight aside from Westbrook. I could see Harden taking a bit of a backseat to Kyrie in his first game back, the Mavs seem happy to rest Luka as much as they can, Giannis has been slow coming back from injury, KAT could lose a bit of usage to Beasley, and Randle is questionable. Now, I'm not saying any of these guys are bad plays, but I do think there is significantly more risk with every other high price option on the slate tonight. Russell is in a pace up matchup against the Pacers (who play at the 8th fastest pace in the NBA) and has the added benefit of Beal being questionable. He has just been so ridiculously consistent that it's hard to imagine him not putting up 50+ points tonight. I don't love his upside for GPPs as much as some of the other guys, but he's a cash lock for me tonight.
Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.
Daniel Gafford (3,200 DK and 3,800 FD)
On a slate with so many excellent center options (Moses Brown, Rob Williams, KAT, etc) my favorite GPP play of them all might just be Daniel Gafford. He is a points per minute MONSTER and went for a ridiculous 26.25 DK points in just 14 minutes last game (his first with the Wizards). Against a Pacers team that will keep both Sabonis and Turner on the court for 30+ minutes, I think the Wizards look to Gafford more than they normally would tonight. If he plays ~20 minutes (projected 17.8) I like him to smash his 3.2K price tag and return somewhere in the range of 25-30 DK points.
Jonas Valanciunas (7,700 DK and 7,300 FD)
I know I'm giving you a lot of centers here, but Gafford is PF eligible on FanDuel, so you should be able to fit them all in. JoVal is just ridiculously underpriced on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and gets a Houston team that just got obliterated by KAT in back to back games. Jonas has 50 point DK potential in this one, especially if the game stays close, and on a slate where Moses Brown and Rob Williams will likely command high ownership, you should be able to get him at 5-10%.
Kemba Walker ($6,800 DK & FD)
No Jaylen and Kemba on some rest against the Pelicans? Sign me up. I LOVE Kemba tonight and think he has 40+ fantasy point potential. Kemba has been really good fantasy-wise recently, going for over 35 DK points in each of his last 2 and putting up a combined 35 shots (!) He should get his usual 30+ minutes tonight and see a usage boost without Jaylen in the lineup.
Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.
Kendrick Nunn (MIA)
- Victor Oladipo (MIA)
- Lamarcus Aldridge (BKN)
- Kevin Durant (BKN)
- Landry Shamet (BKN)
- Josh Okogie (MIN)
- Willie Cauley-Stein (DAL)
- JJ Redick (DAL)
- Eric Gordon (HOU)
- David Nwaba (HOU)
- Jaren Jackson (MEM)
- Killian Hayes (DET)
- Keita Bates-Diop (SAS)
- Gorgui Dieng (SAS)
- Lonnie Walker (SAS)
- Patrick Beverley (LAC)
- Serge Ibaka (LAL)
- Rajon Rondo (LAC)
- Bobby Portis (MIL)
- PJ Tucker (MIL)
- Rodions Kurucs (MIL)
- Doug McDermott (Q) - IND
- Goran Dragic (P) - MIA
- Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
- Lonzo Ball (Q) - NOP
- Jaxson Hayes (Q) - NOP
- Avery Bradley (Q) - HOU
- Christian Wood (Q) - HOU
- Justise Winslow (Q) - MEM
- Zach Lavine (P) - CHI
- Lauri Markannen (P) - CHI
- Stephen Curry (Q) GSW
- Eric Paschall (Q) - GSW
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!