1) We are extremely excited to announce our first ever AC Plus Member contest! Compete for a chance to win a FREE LIFETIME AC PLUS Membership! For the full rules and current standings, click here: AC Plus Member Contest Rules/Standings.
Remember, ONLY ENTER 1 OF THE CONTESTS OR YOUR ENTRY WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED IN THE FINAL STANDINGS!
Due to DraftKings only allowing contests with 20 entries or fewer to be resized, 2 separate contests will be created each night to ensure they run. Don't worry, all scores will be aggregated in an Excel Sheet regardless of which contest you enter. The maximum number of participants for tonight's 2 contests is 40!
3) If you're looking for an NBA DFS Discord server, we have our very own channel in a group with nearly 1,000 active DFS members! Join here: DFS Coach/Analytic City Discord!
Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
Updated at 6:45pm to account for injury news.
Quick Hitters (3/27)
- Today's main slate features 9 games. BOS, CLE, DAL, DET, HOU, MEM, MIL, MIN, NO & UTA are on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is DAL v NO at 229.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is BOS v OKC at 218.5 points.
NEED TO KNOW
Bertans Out, Beal Questionable: If Beal were to sit, I think you have to lock in Westbrook ($11,000 DK and FD) to your lineup. He would be the clear primary playmaker and scorer and would likely have a classic Russ Westbrook triple-double night. If Beal plays, I think apart from him and Russ there isn’t too much value on this Wizards team against a solid DET defense.
Zach Lavine Questionable, Theis Out: With Lavine questionable, it makes Vucevic ($9,500 DK and $9,700 FD) a very interesting look. It could be a risky play as it’s his first game in a Bulls uniform, but he would theoretically be the primary scorer for the Bulls team if Zach sits.
Kemba, Thompson, Semi Out, Fournier Out: Without Kemba (rest) and Teague (traded), Pritchard ($3,200 DK and $3,500 FD) seems like he could be due for a solid workload; he’s the price minimum on FD and 200 above it on DK, so he doesn’t have to do much tonight to return value. I also think Rob WIlliams ($6,600 DK and $5,600 FD) continues to be an obvious play without Thompson and Theis. He put up 40+ DK points last night and he has a great opportunity to do it again tonight against an OKC team that is 5th to last in the NBA at guarding Centers.
SGA, Bradley, Bazley, Rivers Out: Without these guys in the lineup, Horford ($6,300 DK and $6,100 FD) could be a solid play. He’s going up against his old team (Celtics), and more importantly an old teammate/backup of his (Rob Williams), so I bet he comes to play. Boston is also really bad at guarding players like Horford, so he could be due for a big night.
Luka, Kristaps Questionable: If these guys sit tonight, it would open up tons of shots and opportunities for the other guys. If one of either Kristaps/Luka sits, I would get the other one into your lineup; Kristaps put up 31-18-3 last night in Luka’s absence. If both sit, Hardaway ($5,500 DK and $5,400 FD) and Richardson ($5,400 DK and $5,100 FD) would presumably have significantly higher usage than normal, and both would be solid plays. Brunson ($4,200 DK and $4,800 FD) would also be tough to look away from (if Luka sits) despite his mediocre performance last night in the same situation.
Prince, Love Out, Sexton Questionable: If Sexton sits again, I think Garland ($6,900 DK and $6,500 FD) bounces back from his rough performance yesterday and plays well against a SAC team that is the 2nd to worst team in the NBA at defending Point Guards.
Beverley, Ibaka Out, Kawhi, Morris Questionable: If Kawhi sits, Paul George ($8,300 DK and FD) becomes a solid look. He would become the clear primary playmaker and would likely get tons of shots up. If Morris were to also sit, that would only further boost his value. Mann ($3,900 DK and FD) would also be a solid play if Morris sits; he had 10-3-12 in 32 minutes last game and seems to get a solid workload when some of the starting wings are out.
Mike Conley Out: Without Conley in the lineup, I think Ingles ($5,800 DK and $5,400 FD) will likely get the start and return value in his minutes. He went off last time he got the start, so he think has a chance to do so again tonight.
3/27 CORE PLAYS
This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups
In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups.
Robert Williams ($6,600 DK & $5,600 FD)
In the starting role last night, Williams played 27 minutes and scored over 40 DK points. Honestly, I think that’s not even his ceiling in a new role where he should be playing 25-30 minutes a night. He is absolutely electrifying and I think tonight is probably one of the last nights this season you can get him for under 7K. He’s a cash (and probably even GPP) lock for me tonight against a Thunder team that ranks 5th worst in the NBA defending the center position.
Russell Westbrook ($11,000 DK & $11,000 FD)
After seeing what Harden did to the Pistons last night, I don’t mind going with either Westbrook or Beal in lineups tonight. I think Beal is just a bit overpriced, but I will definitely find myself paying the 11K for Westbrook given how unbelievable he has been as of late. He has a 70+ point ceiling in this game, and that along with his expected high ownership (projected 27.6% in GPPs) make him hard to fade in cash lineups.
Ben McLemore ($3,200 DK & $4,000 FD)
McLemore admittedly did all of his damage from three last night (he was 7-14 from downtown), so perhaps he doesn’t have the safest floor. But at just 3,200 on DraftKings, I think he’s really tough to pass on, especially on a slate where there isn’t a ton of cheap value as of yet. He should draw another start tonight and play somewhere around 30 minutes, making him a really strong look for both cash and GPP lineups.
Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.
Bradley Beal ($9,200 DK & $9,100 FD)
I said earlier that I like both Beal and Westbrook tonight, but seeing Beal projected at right around 5% ownership makes him an extremely interesting GPP look (if he plays). He took 23 shots last game, and has clearly been frustrated with his recent string of performances. Although I do think he’s a bit overpriced and he doesn’t project well given his recent play, that may actually serve to drive his ownership down more than anything in a game where I think he has 55+ fantasy point potential.
Jerami Grant ($7,600 DK & $7,300 FD)
I’ve mentioned this before, but I LOVE stars against the Wizards. This game doesn’t actually project for as high a game total as Wizards games usually do, but the opportunity to get Grant at 7.6K just feels too good to pass up on. The Wizards have been terrible against players with Grant’s same player profile this year, and they play at the fastest pace in the NBA. I like Grant’s chances to go for something like 25-8-5 tonight, smashing his price tag.
Dennis Smith Jr. ($4,800 DK & $4,700 FD)*
I’m throwing an asterisk on this one because i’m not certain DSJ will play, but if he does, I LOVE him tonight at under $5,000. No Delon Wright means he should see 25-30 minutes, and he has been an excellent points per minute performer this season when given the chance. We saw him have a 4 game stretch earlier this year where he went for 30+ DK points in every game. He’s one of my favorite plays on the entire slate if he’s in the lineup tonight.
Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.
- Killian Hayes (DET)
- Ish Smith (WAS)
- Thomas Bryant (WAS)
- Kevin Porter (HOU)
- David Nwaba (HOU)
- Eric Gordon (HOU)
- Josh Okogie (MIN)
- Rodions Kurucs (MIL)
- Terrence Furgeson (NYK)
- Keita Bates-Diop (SAS)
- Lonnie Walker (SAS)
- Marqueese Chriss (SAS)
- JJ Redick (DAL)
- Willie Cauley-Stein (DAL)
- Jaren Jackson (MEM)
- Matthew Dellavadova (CLE)
- Marvin Bagley (SAC)
- Joel Embiid (PHI)
- Dennis Smith (Q) - DET
- Danuel House (Q) - HOU
- Kelly Olynyk (Q) - HOU
- PJ Tucker (Q) - MIL
- Bobby Portis (Q) - MIL
- Reggie Bullock (Q) - NYK
- Nerlens Noel (Q) - NYK
- Elfrid Payton (P) - NYK
- Julius Randle (P) - NYK
- Mo Wagner (Q) - BOS
- Lonzo Ball (D) - NOP
- Jaxson Hayes (Q) - NOP
- Matt Thomas (Q) - UTA
- Isaiah Hartenstein (Q) - CLE
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!