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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
Quick Hitters (3/24)
- Today's main slate features 11 games. BKN, DEN, ORL & PHO are on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is ATL v SAC at 233.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is PHO v. ORL at 215 points
NEED TO KNOW
Brogdon, Turner Questionable: If Brogdon and Turner sit again tonight, I think you have to look at Sabonis ($9,400 DK and $8,800 FD); he should get a lot of minutes at the big man position, and he’s playing against a DET team that is the worst in the NBA at guarding PF/C. I think he’ll be a lot more aggressive tonight than he was against the Bucks.
Giannis, Forbes Questionable, PJ Tucker Probable: Last game without Giannis, Jrue Holiday went off, but I doubt he does the same tonight against a Celtics team that is excellent at guarding players like Jrue. I think you have to look at Connaughton ($5,100 DK and $4,500 FD) as well (if Giannis sits), who got the start last time out and had 20-2-9 in 33 minutes. If Giannis plays, I don’t like anyone on the Bucks - they’re in a very tough matchup against the Celtics, who play at the 10th slowest pace in the NBA and are an above average defense as of late.
Lamelo Ball Out: The prices have essentially adjusted to Lamelo sitting, but I still really like Graham ($5,300 DK and $5,000 FD) tonight; he’s coming off a poor performance and should have tons of opportunities against HOU, who is the 6th fastest-paced team in the NBA and is AWFUL at guarding players like Devonte. I also like Rozier ($7,100 DK and $7,000 FD); He put up 24-6-3 in 39 (!) minutes last time out, and I think he has a very large workload tonight as well.
Gordon, Nwaba Out, Porter Questionable: The Rockets have fewer guys out tonight than normal, but I definitely still like John Wall ($7,600 DK and $8,000 FD), who’s in a very positive matchup against a CHA team that plays at an above average pace, is the 9th worst defense in the league, and is bad at guarding players like Wall.
Bazley, SGA Out: Without SGA in the lineup, the Thunder will have to look to someone else to be the primary playmaker and scorer. I think Al Horford ($6,100 DK and FD), who’s coming off multiple days of rest (missed last game) could definitely be a contender for that role. He’s also in an excellent matchup against a MEM team that is really bad at guarding players like himself.
Reddish Out, Gallinari Questionable: If Gallinari sits, that would open up some bench minutes for both Bogdan ($4,000 DK and $4,200 FD) and Hunter ($5,200 DK and $6,300 FD), who are cheaper than they should be and are going up against a SAC team that lets up the second most points in the NBA.
KD, Kyrie, Shamet Out, Harden Questionable: It’s truly baffling that Harden ($10,900 DK and $11,300 FD) isn’t the most expensive guy on both sites tonight (assuming he plays). Without Kyrie and Durant, and against the best team in the NBA on ESPN, I expect James to absolutely pop off. It’s tough to imagine him putting up less than 30-10-10 to be completely honest. He’s gonna have the highest usage of any player on the slate tonight, and hopefully the questionable tag will throw some people off and make his ownership lower than it should be.
3/24 CORE PLAYS
This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups
In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups.
James Harden ($10,900 DK & $11,300 FD)
I'm going right back to Harden again tonight in cash lineups. He simply commands too much usage with Kyrie out to pass up on. Even in a tough matchup against the Jazz he is essentially a lock for 25-10 and has strong triple double potential. If he sits (currently questionable), I love Tyler Johnson, who looked good last night in 23 minutes of action and would become one of my favorite value plays on the slate.
Tyrese Haliburton ($5,700 DK & FD)
Haliburton played a ridiculous 38 minutes last game (his first off a minutes restriction). He now draws an Atlanta team that ranks 4th worst in the NBA against PGs and has been terrible against players with Haliburton's player profile this year. In a game that is projected for the highest point total of the night, I think he is one of the strongest plays on the slate.
Theo Maledon ($4,900 DK & $4,600 FD)
Maledon has seen 32 and 33 minutes in the last 2 with various Thunder players out. With SGA out tonight, I expect a similar number of minutes tonight against a Memphis team that plays at the 21st fastest pace in the NBA. He is simply too cheap and has too safe of a floor to pass on in cash lineups for me tonight.
Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.
Mason Plumlee ($5,900 DK & $6,500 FD)
Plumlee has such incredible potential that it feels impossible to overlook him in GPP lineups tonight, especially with his ownership projected at ~5%. He went for 42 DK points last game out and now draws a matchup against a Pacers team that surprisingly ranks below average (17th) at defending centers this year. I like him to smash value tonight, especially at his 5,900 price tag on DK.
Trae Young ($8,700 DK & FD)
Trae has been mediocre recently, but seeing his price tag under $9,000 in a matchup against the Kings screams must play to me. The Kings are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA from a fantasy standpoint, and play at an above average pace (20th). I think Trae has a ridiculously high ceiling tonight and for that reason alone will have him in a bunch of GPP lineups.
Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.
- Hamidou Diallo (DET)
- Rodney McGruder (DET)
- Tristan Thompson (BOS)
- Romeo Langford (BOS)
- Rodions Kurucs (MIL)
- Gary Harris (DEN)
- Monte Morris (DEN)
- Patrick McCaw (TOR)
- Kevin Love (CLE)
- Taureen Prince (CLE)
- Malik Beasley (MIN)
- George Hill (OKC)
- Cole Anthony (ORL)
- Abdel Nader (PHO)
- Patrick Beverley (LAC)
- Serge Ibaka (LAC)
- Lamarcus Aldridge (SAS)
- Rudy Gay (SAS)
- Keita Bates-Diop (SAS)
- Lonnie Walker (SAS)
- Marvin Bagley (SAC)
- Wayne Ellington (Q) - DET
- Cody Zeller (P) - CHA
- Garrett Temple (Q) - CHI
- Jordan McLaughlin (Q) - MIN
- Mo Bamba (Q) - ORL
- Chasson Randle (Q) - ORL
- Terrence Ross (Q) - ORL
- Chimezie Metu (Q) - SAC
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!