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Today's Optimizer And Datasheets
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
Quick Hitters (3/20)
- Today's main slate features 4 games. MEM, GS, SAC & SA are on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is CHA v LAC at 232.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is GS v MEM at 220.5 points.
NEED TO KNOW
Paschal, Wiseman, Looney Out, Curry Doubtful: Without Curry last night, Andrew Wiggins ($6,300 DK and $5,200 FD) absolutely went off for 40-4-8. I like him again tonight without Curry and with a banged up Oubre. I also think Draymond Green ($7,400 DK and $6,600 FD) gets tons of big-man minutes today; without Looney and Wiseman, GS will need Draymond to step up tonight.
Seth Curry, Joel Embiid Out: Without Embiid in the lineup, I like Dwight Howard ($6,000 DK and $5,000 FD) to get most of the big-man minutes tonight, and I really like his matchup against the second worst defense in the NBA. I also like Tobias ($8,800 DK and $8,300 FD) to pick up the scoring load for the sixers; he should have a big night against a SAC team that isn’t great at guarding players like Harris. I also like whoever starts in Seth Curry’s place tonight - very up in the air who that’ll be.
Marvin Bagley Out: I like Richaun Holmes ($7,300 DK and $7,100 FD) again tonight; he should get the majority of the big man minutes against a depleted PHI front court. I also like Fox ($9,500 DK and $9,200 FD) a lot tonight, who’s going up against a PHI team that is TERRIBLE at guarding players like Fox.
Cody Zeller Out: Without Zeller, I think Bismack ($3,300 DK and $3,600 FD) probably gets the start and plays a solid amount of minutes. I don’t think he’s a great play, though, because he’s playing against an excellent Clippers defense that plays at a very slow pace.
3/20 CORE PLAYS
This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups.
In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100 DK & $11,400 FD)
I don’t really like this matchup at all for Giannis from a matchup standpoint, the Spurs allow the 8th fewest points in the NBA and play at a below average pace. That being said, I do think they should manage to keep this game close, and if they do Giannis is essentially a lock for 50-60 fantasy points. On a slate where the second highest priced (healthy) player is De’Aaron Fox, I feel the most confident building my cash lineups around a guy who hasn’t scored fewer than 55 DK points in any of his last 5.
Andrew Wiggins ($6,300 DK & $5,200 FD)
If Curry sits again tonight (currently doubtful) I’m going right back to Wiggins, ESPECIALLY on FanDuel. He is just way too cheap after what he did last night. In GPP lineups, I like fading him because of his high projected ownership, but I think he’s tough to pass on in cash lineups when he would only need ~30 fantasy points to 5X value.
Grayson Allen ($3,700 DK & FD)
Grayson Allen was excellent last night in this exact matchup. At $3,700, he feels one of the safest value plays of the night. I don’t love his ceiling with his minutes seemingly capped around 25, but I do think fitting him in your lineup opens up a lot of salary for some higher end players and he should have a pretty safe floor of 15-20 DK points tonight.
Damion Lee ($3,400 DK & $3,500 FD)
Lee went absolutely off last night, and if Curry sits, he comes in as probably my favorite play on the slate. It’s not often you can find a guy who just put up 14 shots and scored 21 points at $3,400, and barring any significant injury news, I see no reason his role should change tonight.
Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.
Paul George ($8,300 DK & $7,60 FD)
George is probably my favorite top tier play of the night. He went for 28-7-5 while taking 20 shots last time out, and now draws an amazing matchup against a Charlotte team that ranks 4th worst in the NBA at defending SG’s. The fact that he is $1,000 cheaper than Leonard means he should see some pretty high ownership (we have him projected at 32%), but I think he absolutely has the potential to be one of the night's top scorers and is drastically underpriced.
Furkan Korkmaz ($4,600 DK & $3,500 FD)
I’m having a pretty tough time finding value I feel confident in tonight, but I think your best bet is probably Korkmaz. He’s played 23 and 20 minutes in his last 2 games, and should see an extended run tonight with Seth Curry out. He’s a no brainer on Fanduel as the site minimum, and still a solid look at $4,600 on DK if late value doesn’t open up closer to lock.
Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.
- Patrick Beverley (LAC)
- Rodions Kurucs (MIL)
- Serge Ibaka (LAC)
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!