AC Plus 3/15


M15th

Announcements

1) We are in full swing this week/weekend! Let's do some winning!

2) We want to reiterate that there is LOTS of value to be had in our Need To Know section. The bolded players are some of the best value plays of the night. This section shouldn’t be glossed over as it has some of the players who we think bring the most value to your lineups each night!

3) We also want to highlight an important difference between the Need To Know and Player Spotlight sections. Unlike the Need To Know section (which is described in announcement number 2), the Player Spotlight section aims to find a “diamond in the rough”, or a player that we expect to have relatively low ownership (a seasonal average of under 20%), best suited for a GPP lineup. 

If you're enjoying using our optimizer, send us a Tweet (or DM) @CityAnalytic! We want to show off the lineups you've been building! 

Today's Optimizer And Datasheet

3/15 Excel Optimizer/Datasheet

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

3/15 Google Sheets Optimizer/Datasheet

Quick Hitters (3/15)

- Today's main slate features 8 games, GS, LAC, SA & MEM are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is SAC v CHA at 239 points. The game with the lowest over/under is SA v DET at 221.5 points.

Need To Know

Bertans, Neto Questionable: This isn’t huge news, but it has potential to open up some value for the Wizards players. Westbrook ($10,500 DK and $10,200 FD) is coming off a monster performance (42-12-10) and would likely see a slight uptick in his minutes if Neto were to sit. Both the Bucks and Wizards play at a very fast pace and are poor defensive teams, so this should be a shootout. 

Rose, Rivers, Robinson Out, Payton Doubtful, Quickley probable: Lots of news coming out of New York today, but it all boils down to the Kicks being really slim in the backcourt. This bodes well for Quickley ($5,600 DK and $4,600 FD) and Bullock ($3,500 DK and $3,500 FD), who should both see solid minutes and scoring opportunities against a fast-paced, poor defensive BKN team. On a night where there aren’t a ton of cheap value plays, I don’t hate reaching for a guy like Bullock, who played 37 minutes last game and went for 14-2-1. 

Smith, Diallo, Hayes Out, Ellington Doubtful: Likely without Ellington, I really like Rodney McGruder ($3,400 DK and $3,500 FD) tonight; he’s very underpriced, and with the minutes (and possible start) he’ll get without Ellington in the lineup, I think he has a great chance of returning value and is one of the best cheap plays on the slate. Our model currently has McGruder ranked as the second best projected +- play. 

Aldridge, Derozan Out: This has been the case for a few games now, and the prices have adjusted for the most part. Truthfully, I would be scared of a lot of the Spurs guys tonight; they’re playing a slow-paced and defensively strong DET team, and they have seemed to develop one of the more confusing rotations in the league, with different guys performing nightly and frequent opportunities being given to deep bench guys.

Monte Morris Out: Without Monte Morris, there are some minutes opened up in the guard spots for DEN. Will Barton ($5,300 DK and $5,500 FD) is a guy who intrigues me; he’s really picked up the scoring load for the Nuggets while Murray has been struggling, he’s underpriced, and he’s playing against an IND team who is poor at guarding players like himself. Barton has breakout potential tonight in my opinion.

Beverley Out, Ibaka Questionable: If Ibaka sits tonight, you might want to get Zubac ($4,600 DK and $4,400 FD) into your lineup, who would probably get the start for Ibaka like he did in the second half last night. But, the Clippers (2nd slowest pace in NBA) are in a tough matchup against a DAL team which plays at the 6th slowest pace in the league. Needless to say this should be a slow-paced, and therefore probably low scoring game.

Lebron, Kuzma Probable, Gasol, Caruso, AD Out: There’s a solid amount of value to be found on this LAL team tonight. They’re playing against a Warriors squad that plays at the second fastest pace in the league and is coming off a 12 point win against the Jazz. So, I think the Warriors will look to keep up that high scoring trend and push the pace against the Lakers, which bodes well for a bunch of the LAL guys. A guy I really like is Kuzma ($6,000 DK and $5,600 FD); he’s coming off a great performance where he had 24-13-1 in 30 minutes, and since he’s a big confidence player, I expect him to keep it going (by “confidence player”, I mean a guy who plays A LOT better when he is confident and aggressive).

Player Spotlight

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

To see our full results and the criteria we use to select player spotlights, check out our Player Spotlight Tracker!

Harrison Barnes (6,600 DK and 6,300 FD)

I like Harrison Barnes for a few reasons tonight. 

  1. Matchup: This game has the highest projected point total of the night. Barnes is playing against a CHA team that is terrible at guarding players with his profile. Charlotte also plays at an above average pace (12th highest) and gives up the 9th most points to opposing teams, many of which are threes (they allow the most threes to opposing teams). Finally, they’re dreadful (league worst) on the glass. Barnes fills up the stat sheet w/ assists and rebounds as well as points, so I like his chances to have a large game tonight.
  2. Low ownership: If you couldn’t tell from the above paragraph, this is an amazing matchup for the Kings. I like virtually all of the Kings guys tonight, but we project Barnes to have the lowest ownership (9.3%) of them, which is what makes him my favorite in a GPP contest. He’s one of the least popular DFS players on the Kings and will likely be overlooked tonight despite his incredible consistency and significant workload.
  3. Last meeting: Last time out against the Hornets, Barnes played 42 minutes (led the team) and went for 28-6-6. He will likely play a lot again against a big Hornets team (PJ, Bridges, Bismack, Zeller, Hayward, etc), and in a game which could definitely be a close one (1 point game last time), I expect the Kings to go with “Mr. Steady” Harrison Barnes.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Thomas Bryant (WAS)
  • Ish Smith (WAS)
  • Hassan Whiteside (SAC)
  • Kevin Durant (BKN)
  • Blake Griffin (BKN)
  • Keita Bates-Diop (SAS)
  • Gary Harris (DEN)
  • RJ Hampton (DEN)
  • Cam Johnson (PHO)

Questionable Players:

  • Timothe Luwawu-Cabbarot (P) - BKN
  • Jeremy Lamb (Q) - IND
  • James Johnson (Q) - DAL
  • Tyrell Terry (Q) - DAL

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!