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Today's Optimizer And Datasheet
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
Quick Hitters (3/14)
- Today's main slate features 6 games, ATL, MIN, OKC, POR & TOR are on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIN v POR at 235 points. The game with the lowest over/under is MIA v ATL at 211.5 points.
Need To Know
Bam, Leonard Out: Without Bam in the lineup, Jimmy Butler ($9,400 DK and $10,300 FD) has been on an absolute tear. Last night, he put up 28-8-3. He’s been the clear number 1 scoring option for the Heat while Bam has been out, and I don’t think that changes tonight. I also like Olynyk ($6,100 DK and $4,500 FD), who is underpriced on FD and has been getting the start for Bam. He is in a great matchup tonight against a Magic team that’s bad at defending bigs like Kelly.
Fournier, Gordon Out, Ross Questionable: Without these guys, Vucevic ($9,900 DK and FD) should see a large scoring and playmaking role. He is in a tough matchup tonight, though, against a Heat team that allows the 4th fewest points in the NBA. I don’t see too much other value in this game; I could see it being a blowout and I think the Magic will struggle mightily, so be careful about Vuc and the other ORL players.
Capela, Okongwu Questionable, Young Probable: If Capela were to sit, Collins ($6,400 DK and $5,900 FD) would presumably pick up some of the big-man minutes. If both Capela AND Okongwu are out, I think Collins could see a massive uptick in his minutes tonight and would be a must play. Other than that, there isn’t much value to be found on the Hawks tonight unless Trae also somehow sits out.
Drummond, Prince Out, Garland Questionable: I really like Sexton ($7,800 DK and FD) tonight, ESPECIALLY if Garland sits; he would get even more opportunities than normal without Garland in the lineup, but either way the Hawks are really bad at guarding players with Sexton’s player profile, so I expect him to have no problem scoring tonight.
Gordon, House, Wall, Tucker Out, Nwaba Questionable: The Rockets have been struggling a lot recently, and it could continue tonight against a tough Celtics defense. I like Oladipo ($8,400 DK and $7,700 FD) tonight, as he should be the go-to option offensively for HOU. Patton (5,400 DK and 5,000 FD) should be another solid play tonight, as he’s playing against a BOS team that is terrible at guarding Centers with his player profile. Finally, Porter Jr. ($5,000 DK & $6,000 FD) will continue to be a popular play and has looked NBA ready since his step-up from the G league.
Pat Bev Out: There is lots of value on this Clippers team tonight; I could see a bunch of guys playing well against a NOP team that gives up the 4th most points to opposing teams. I would feel confident starting whoever takes Beverley’s place in the starting lineup; my guess would be Jackson ($4,600 DK and $4,900 FD), who should see increased minutes without Bev.
OG, Pascal, Fred still Out: The prices for Powell ($7,400 DK and $7,800 FD) and Lowry ($8,600 DK and $8,400 FD) have adjusted accordingly, but I still think they’re good plays tonight against a CHI team that plays at the 5th fastest pace in the league and allows the 7th most points. You can also expect to see a dip in ownership after their underwhelming performances last night.
In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.
To see our full results and the criteria we use to select player spotlights, check out our Player Spotlight Tracker!
Thaddeus Young ($5,700 DK and $6,800 FD)
Thad Young looks to be a solid play tonight for multiple reasons:
- Starting lineup: Billy Donovan told the media that he’s making a lineup change and will start Young and Satoransky instead of White and Carter. This change should mean more minutes and opportunities for both of them, especially Young.
- Underpriced: You’ve probably noticed that Young is oftentimes in our optimal lineup or is one of our top-10 plays of the day. He’s been underpriced virtually all season, and the same is the case tonight.
- Matchup: TOR is a below average defensive team and plays at an above average pace, so this should be a solid matchup for CHI to score some points. CHI is also a terrible defensive team, so this should be a high scoring game in general.
- Ownership: We project Young at just under 13% ownership. There are no injuries or glaring matchup advantages in this game, so people won’t be looking at Young unless they know about the lineup change, which you wouldn’t know unless you are very on top of NBA DFS or the Bulls.
Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.
- Avery Bradley (MIA)
- Cole Anthony (ORL)
- James Ennis (ORL)
- Deandre Hunter (ATL)
- Cam Reddish (ATL)
- Christian Wood (HOU)
- Jordan McClaughlin (MIN)
- Harry Giles (POR)
- CJ McCollum (POR)
- JJ Redick (NOP)
- Garrett Temple (CHI)
- Patrick McCaw (TOR)
- Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
- Jarrett Culver (Q) - MIN
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!