AC Plus 3/11

ACP 3/11


We are in full swing this week/weekend! Let's do some winning!

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Today's Optimizer And Datasheet

3/11 Excel Optimizer/Datasheet

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

3/11 Google Sheets Optimizer

Both sheets reuploaded at 5:42pm

Quick Hitters (3/11)

- Today's main slate features 11 games, DAL is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is NO v MIN at 239 points. The game with the lowest over/under is ORL v MIA at 214.5 points.

Need to Know:

Anunoby, Siakam, Van Vleet still Out, Davis Questionable: With this trio out for the past few games on Covid Protocols, Lowry ($8,600 DK and $8,500 FD) and Powell ($7,200 DK and $7,500 FD) have really picked up the scoring load for the Raps. Both of these guys will likely have somewhere around 20% ownership, though, so if you want a deeper pick for the Raptors you could go for a guy like Baynes (4,200 DK and 3,900 FD), who’s underpriced and is playing against an Atlanta team that isn’t great at guarding players like Baynes.

Delon Wright Questionable: Even if Wright plays, I bet he’s on somewhat of a minutes restriction since he’s been injured for a while. While Wright’s been out, Dennis Smith ($4,900 DK and $5,500 FD) has gotten starting PG duties and has filled up the stat sheet on a number of occasions. His price still hasn’t adequately adjusted and I think he has a solid chance to return value tonight.

KD, Griffin Out, Green Questionable, TLC Doubtful: Since TLC and Green have already been out for some games, the other guys prices have adjusted. I don’t see too much value in this game as the Nets are playing against a very solid defensive team in Boston. 

Beasley, McLaughlin Out, Culver Doubtful: Without Beasley, the Wolves will need to find someone at that wing position who can pick up some of his scoring load. I think Edwards ($6,700 DK and $6,500 FD) is primed to step into that role; rookies tend to improve in the second half of their first season, and I think Edwards will really look to be aggressive against a Pelicans team that isn’t good defensively (5th most points to opposing team in the NBA).

Rivers, Rose, Robinson all Out: Without Rose in the lineup, I like Elfrid Payton ($5,600 DK and $4,900 FD), especially on FanDuel where he is VERY underpriced. He’ll likely get the start in Rose’s place and will see an increased playmaking and scoring role; last game he put up 20-4-6 while getting the start.

Bam, Bradley, Leonard Out: Without Bam’s scoring and playmaking, Jimmy Butler ($9,500 DK and $9,600 FD) should see a larger playmaking and scoring role; without Bam last game, Butler put up 29-9-3. A sleeper in this game could be Precious Achiuwa (3,400 DK and 3,500 FD), who should definitely see more minutes tonight without Bam in the lineup and is very underpriced. 

Fournier Out, Gordon, Ross Questionable: You’ll have to keep an eye on the injury report tonight, but if Ross doesn’t play, I expect a very large game from Vucevic ($10,400 DK and $9,900 FD); there’s not many other guys on this team that can score, and Vuc should be able to dominate without the defense of Adebayo. He’ll likely be going up against Olynyk and Achiuwa, two players that he should exploit extensively. 

Embiid, Simmons Out: Without these two guys in the lineup, Harris ($8,100 DK and $6,900 FD) should see the biggest boost, especially on FD where he’s ridiculously underpriced. He’ll need to score a lot of points tonight to keep PHI in the game, so I expect him to be super aggressive. I also love Shake Milton ($5,300 DK and $4,200 FD), who should see a lot more shots and opportunities to get fantasy points tonight. Overall, I like a lot of guys on this Sixers team (Howard Curry, and other included); their prices haven’t adjusted nearly enough to Simmons and Embiid being out, so a good number of them could return value.

Gordon Questionable, Wood, House, Nwaba Out: I think Oladipo ($8,200 DK and $7,700 FD) brings the most value tonight on this Houston team. The Kings let up the most points in the NBA to opposing teams and are absolutely terrible at guarding players with Oladipo’s player profile. I like his chances to return value even with Gordon in the lineup. Without Gordon in the lineup, Victor would see EVEN MORE scoring opportunities.

Devin Booker Questionable, Cam Johnson Out: The reports make it seem as if Booker will be in the lineup, and I would be shocked if he doesn't play tonight. If he doesn’t play, though, I would look to get whoever starts in his place into your lineup (my guess would be either Saric or Kaminsky).

Player Spotlight

In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.

To see our full results and the criteria we use to select player spotlights, check out our Player Spotlight Tracker!

Deandre Ayton (6,900 DK and 7,200 FD)

Here are some reasons I like Ayton tonight:

  1. Underpriced: Ayton has been underpriced virtually all year, and it’s likely because of the assumed situation of CP3 and DBOOK taking away scoring opportunities from him. However, Ayton still racks up boards and dunks regardless of how Paul and Booker are playing, so I think he has a pretty high floor, with an opportunity to be a leading scorer.
  2. Matchup: Portland lets up the 7th most points in the NBA to opposing teams, and they’re especially bad against Centers (bottom 4 in the NBA); Kanter will have a really hard time defending Ayton both on the block and in the pick and roll action with CP3, so I expect Ayton to have a large game.
  3. Ownership: We have Ayton projected at 6.5% ownership on DK and even lower on FD. With so many injuries and therefore great value plays around the league on teams like PHI, TOR, etc, people likely aren’t looking at the Suns guys, especially if Booker plays.
  4. Rebounding: This might be counterintuitive, but I think the unbelievable OREB ability of Kanter gets Ayton to be EVEN MORE engaged on the defensive glass; he knows Kanter is going to be crashing the boards, so he’ll make even more of an effort to box out and get defensive boards.

Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.

Out Players:

  • Devonte Graham (P) - CHA

  • Taj Gibson (Q) - NYK
  • Gabe Vincent (P) - MIA
  • Lauri Markkanen (Q) - CHI
  • Otto Porter (Q) - CHI

Questionable Players:

  • Kris Dunn (ATL)
  • Cam Reddish (ATL)
  • Patrick Mccaw (TOR)
  • JJ Redick (NOP)
  • Cole Anthony (ORL)
  • Jonothan Issac (ORL)
  • Hamidou Diallo (OKC)
  • George Hill (OKC)
  • Hassan Whiteside (SAC)
  • Cj Mccollum (POR)

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!