1) Two episodes of our 'DFS Dives' series are out! If you haven't given them a look yet, you can find them here. I PROMISE they will change the way you think about NBA DFS for the second half of the season!
Our DFS Dives series will aim to take an in depth and analytical look at popular DFS statistics to see if they REALLY make a difference in player performance.
Have a stat or question you want answered about NBA DFS? Email us and we will select our favorite question to cover in an edition of our 'DFS Dives' series! Exclusive to AC Plus members!
2) We have made a few adjustments to our models over the break! Most notably, we have improved (and backtested) the adjustments to points we make when you manually rule players out through the 'Injury Updates' tab in the workbook!
One Other Thing, if you're enjoying using our optimizer, send us a Tweet (or DM) @CityAnalytic! We want to show off the lineups you've been building!
Today's Optimizer And Datasheet
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
Quick Hitters (3/10)
- Today's main slate features 2 games, no teams are on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is WAS v MEM at 236.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is DAL v SA at 220.5 points.
Need to Know:
Since there’s only 4 teams back in action tonight after the all star break, there isn’t much injury or player news. However, there still is definitely some value to be had on this limited slate!
Grayson Allen Out: Without Allen in the lineup, Desmond Bane ($4,000 DK and $3,500 FD) and De'anthony Melton ($4,600 DK and $6,000 FD) have seen increased opportunities to play and score. Against a Wizards team that plays the fastest pace in the NBA and gives up the second most points to opposing teams, I could imagine both of these guys returning value. It’s also tough to look away from Ja Morant ($7,800 DK and $8,000 FD), even though we have him projected to be owned at 68.6%; He’s in a great matchup against a Washington team that’s terrible at guarding players like Morant (he went for 35-10-5 last time out against the Wiz).
Thomas Bryant, Ish Smith still Out: This is old news, but I wanted to highlight Robin Lopez ($3,400 DK and $4,200 FD), because I think he’s quite underpriced and has a solid chance to return value in what should be a very fast paced game tonight between the fastest paced team (WAS) and the 10th fastest pace team (MEM) in the NBA. Since he’s priced so low, Lopez doesn’t need to do too much to return value tonight.
Dallas Mavs: No injury news here, and not much great value either. The most value I can see is with the Point Guards, Luka ($10,700 DK and $11,000 FD) and Brunson ($5,700 DK and $5,400 FD), who are going up against a Spurs team that is the 5th worst team in the NBA at guarding opposing PG’s.
Devin Vassell Out: Not very impactful news here for SA. However, what is important in this game is that the Spurs are finally completely healthy. It’s unclear what the starting lineup will be tonight, but make sure you keep an eye on it and get a guy like Trey Lyles ($4,100 DK and $4,700 FD) into your lineup if he makes the start; he’s cheap and should have a great chance of returning value if he starts.
Ownership: Keep in mind that because tonight is such a small slate, the ownership numbers will be skewed. Don't be scared off by a guy with 30% ownership.
In this section we will spotlight a player we believe is in a plus matchup and has a positive projected +-.
To see our full results and the criteria we use to select player spotlights, check out our Player Spotlight Tracker!
Deni Avdija (3,100 DK and 4,000 FD)
Deni Avdija is underpriced and doesn’t need to do much to return value, which is why I like him as a deep flyer in your lineup tonight. Here are 3 reasons I like him:
- Experience: Oftentimes we see rookies make large jumps in the second half of their rookie seasons. I could see Deni getting more minutes and opportunities to show what he can do in this return from the all star break. He should be a lot more composed now that he’s had some time to get his feet wet.
- Pace: Washington plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and MEM plays at the 10th fastest. Last time these two teams played, the score was 125-111. Needless to say it should be a high scoring game.
- Matchup: Deni is in an excellent matchup against a Grizz team that is third worst in the NBA at guarding Small Forwards. He should be able to take advantage of the porous defense.
Questionable/Out List: These other key players are Questionable or Out. Make sure to check the status of anyone who is questionable right before tipoff. You never definitively know either way until then.
Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM)
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!