AC+ NBA 6/28


Announcements 

We're doing BOTH Classic AND Showdown competitions!

1) DraftKings is offering Classic Competition OVER 2 DAYS, so you can find our datasheet/optimizer and Tier plays for that below!

We will ALSO be providing you guys with our Playoff Showdown Blueprint, which contains our Captain/MVP plays, Dark horse plays, as well as ownership projections for Showdown!

2) We are hosting the Official Standings for the Clockwork Sports NBA Playoff Challenge on our website! Compete for a chance to win $25 cash, Clockwork sports VIP access for the NBA finals, or an NBA TopShot moment! Learn more here.

3) Our AC+ MLB Newsletter/Membership is OUT NOW! Our tools have been tried and tested over the first month of the MLB season, and we truly can't wait for you guys to use them. Read more about the membership here!

Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
(Optimizer is for DK Classic Slate, FD Datasheet is for Showdown)

 6/28 Excel Optimizer/Datasheet

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

 6/28 Google Sheets Optimizer/Datasheet

QUICK HITTERS (6/28)

- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest and lowest over/under is LAC v PHO at 214 points. 

Classic Blueprint

Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight and tomorrow's Classic Competition Contests. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!

Tonight's Lineup Construction: 

This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.

I really like the mid-tier on this slate, so I’ll probably go for a balanced strategy tonight/tomorrow. I’ll probably start by locking in each of my mid-tier plays, and will also try to get CP3 in my lineup. From that point, I’ll likely optimize and see what other guys I’m able to fit into my lineup. 

I think the other thing to keep in mind with this slate is how low scoring the PHO-LAC games have been compared to the MIL-ATL games. MIL-ATL is played at a much faster pace, with both teams excelling in transition. Conversely, the Suns have done a really good job slowing down the pace and playing in the half court, which I think they’ll continue to do tonight. So, skewing your lineup to the MIL-ATL game could make sense. I do think, though, that the PHO-LAC game will be higher scoring tonight, so I don’t love that strategy.

Finally, you have to think about the injuries on this slate. Trae Young and Ivica Zubac are both  questionable, so I would avoid getting them into your lineups.

Tier 1 ($8,000+)

Each of the following tiers will provide our top 2-3 value plays (depending on how many games there are) of the night from within the specified price range.

Note: We will be using DraftKings prices for the price-range classifications. 

1. Chris Paul ($8,300)

Chris hasn’t played at home in this series yet, so he’s going to have some fun tonight. This type of game is made for CP3; he’s going to slow the game down and be a game manager, he’ll have his ball in his hands during important minutes, and I think he’ll play very well tonight knowing that they’re up 3-1 so there’s not too much pressure on this game. He’s the cheapest player in this top tier, but I could see a world where he’s the leading point scorer on this slate.

2. Paul George ($9,700) 

If any team is going to respond to a 3-1 series deficit, it’s going to be this Clippers team. They really aren’t that much worse than PHO (they’ve lost some close games), so this one is definitely winnable, and I think Paul George will play quite well tonight. He’s been great with his back against the wall in these playoffs, and I really think he’s going to show out in this game 5 tonight. He deserves respect and he’ll earn it tonight.

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200)

I just don’t see myself going away from Giannis at any point during this series, unless his price rises to a ridiculous point, which it hasn’t yet. He’s getting whatever he wants in this series, and in a game 4 that I don’t expect Khris to play as well in, I’ll feel pretty solid about Giannis. If the defense shifts even an inch toward Middleton in game 4 (which they probably will), Giannis will most certainly take advantage.

Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)

1. Deandre Ayton ($7,500)

Ayton has shown some pretty phenomenal offensive flashes throughout this series, and it has made the Suns more confident in his ability to create for himself in the post. He’s also been an absolute beast on the boards and as a rim protector. The floor is pretty secure for Ayton, and we saw the type of ceiling potential he has in game 4. He’s only gaining confidence and should continue to play even better. 

2. Reggie Jackson ($6,400)

It is a foregone conclusion that Reggie Jackson will be in my mid-tier top 3 plays if he’s in this 6k range. He’s the number two scoring option for his team, and he’s shown an incredible array of shotmaking skills in these playoffs. I don’t see any reason why he won’t continue to play with an immense amount of confidence, and in an elimination game, I think he should be even more aggressive from the start.

3. Kevin Huerter ($5,600)

People keep talking about how Trae Young doesn’t have anyone alongside him to make plays for himself and others, but I would argue Huerter is that guy. He’s getting better literally every single game, and I really love the value you’re getting for him at 5.6k. He has potential to score 20+, and he gets assists, rebounds, and defensive statistics as well. I love both his floor and ceiling.

Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)

1. Bobby Portis ($3,700)

Portis put up 15-4-1 in 17 minutes in game 3, and I just don’t see him getting fewer than 20 minutes in game 4. He plays very well every time he gets in the game, so I just can’t imagine that he hasn’t earned a larger role off the bench. He adds an extra offensive threat, and he’s a versatile defender/athlete who can do lots of things on the court.

2. Jae Crowder ($4,800)

For a player in the low-tier, Crowder is locked in for tons of minutes, and that’s a big reason why I like him tonight. He should shoot the ball better at home, and as CP3 continues to play better, Crowder will start to see even more open looks. The floor is very consistent for Crowder, and he could always get hot from three and turn out a ceiling game.

3. Marcus Morris ($4,100)

If the Clippers are going to extend this series, they are going to have to rely on someone besides Reggie Jackson and Paul George to create their offense; I think Marcus Morris can be that guy despite the knee injury he’s been battling. He looked a bit more mobile last game, and I could see him having a breakout game tonight, especially considering he’s projected to start.

Showdown Blueprint!

This section will provide you with my 3 favorite captain plays, my 3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy!

Captain/MVP Plays

This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.

Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.

1. Paul George ($11,800 DK and $15,000 FD)

Despite his poor efficiency, PG has put up great numbers in the past couple games for the Clippers. Tonight, with his back up against the wall in a must-win situation, I expect George to have an excellent game. He’s going to take tons of shots early and often, and if anyone has it in them to respond like this, it’s the Clippers.

2. Reggie Jackson ($8,600 DK and $12,500 FD)

I’ve loved Jackson throughout these entire playoffs, and I continue to like him tonight. I think he’ll be super aggressive early and often, especially taking the ball to the hoop. He’s been shooting the ball so well, so he should be able to take advantage of the pressure that’s put on him, something he hasn’t done enough of up to this point. 

3. Chris Paul ($10,600 DK and $14,000 FD) 

Paul is priced behind Booker on DK and behind Ayton on FD, but I really like his chances to outscore both of those guys. He’s finally back at home and will be playing in front of his home crowd for the first time this series, and I think he’s the type of guy that’ll shine in a closeout game like this. It’s typical to come out with less energy when you’re up 3-1, but CP3 will do everything in his power not to let his team do that.

Dark Horse Plays

This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!

1. Luke Kennard ($2,800 DK and $7,500 FD)

The Clippers had a REALLY TOUGH shooting performance in game 4, and I think that could mean Luke Kennard will get more minutes tonight. LAC needs to find as many offensive weapons besides Jackson and George as they can, and Kennard is certainly a possibility for that role.

2. Marcus Morris ($4,400 DK and $8,500 FD) 

For a guy who started in game 4, I think you’re getting pretty solid value for Morris on both sites. Despite being very cheap, he’ll get decent minutes and if he shoots well (which he definitely has the potential to do), he could stay in for a lot longer. Morris is a guy I definitely like taking a chance on tonight, especially since the Clippers are looking for offense wherever they can get it.

3. Ivica Zubac ($6,800 DK and $12,000 FD) *Especially on DK*

Zubac is questionable tonight, but if he plays I will definitely really like him on DK. Despite being a really large human being, he’s well conditioned and can stay on the court for long stretches, which he’s done a lot of the past 2 games. He put up 13 and 14 last game, and he’s looked like an absolute double-double machine when he plays decent minutes (which he should tonight if he plays).

Lineup Construction Strategy

This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.

This game should be higher scoring than last, and I expect more guys to make shots. I think Zubac is a guy to look out for. If he doesn’t play, the Clippers definitely might go small, in which case I wouldn’t like Ayton, because he would be forced away from the rim and would therefore get less rebounds. If Zubac sits I would also definitely like Batum and Morris, 2 guys who should play far more minutes and would have an advantage being defended by Ayton (it would likely lead to more 3 point shots). Stay tuned for the Zubac news and adjust your lineup accordingly, that’s my number 1 advice tonight.

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!