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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
QUICK HITTERS (6/20)
- Today's main slate features 2 games. Nobody is on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is LAC v PHO at 220 points. The game with the lowest over/under is PHI v ATL at 215 points.
Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight's games. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!
Tonight's Lineup Construction:
This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.
Both of these series’ are in completely opposite situations, obviously. WIth PHI and ATL, we basically know what the rotations, matchups, and gameplans are going to look like, which means there isn’t much unknown from a DFS sense. Of course you never know what’s going to happen, but we basically know who will play and how much they will play, as well as approximately what their offensive usage will look like. LAC vs. PHO, on the other hand, is completely up in the air. There are two things I think you should keep in mind about this game 1, though, both of which I wrote about extensively in my write ups. Firstly, CP3 isn’t playing, which will change things for the Suns lineup; Dbook and others will have to take more of a role in the offense, and Cam Payne will likely get the start, which is very important information. The other thing to keep in mind is how LAC’s rotation will change; they’re going to play 10 guys today (according to Ty Lue), and that means that the scoring and usage should be more balanced across the board.
Tier 1 ($8,000+)
Each of the following tiers will provide our top 2-3 value plays (depending on how many games there are) of the night from within the specified price range.
Note: We will be using DraftKings prices for the price-range classifications.
1. Devin Booker ($8,900 DK)
Without Chris Paul today, Devin Booker will have to take over the team’s offense. Rather than CP3 running pick and roll to start their offense, Devin Booker will likely be the focal point. He’ll see more minutes, usage, and shots than normal, and that bodes really well for him returning value at only 8.9k. Booker is the cheapest player in this top-tier, but he could easily be the highest scoring player on this slate, so I’ll definitely start out tonight by locking in Booker to my lineups.
2. Trae Young ($10,100 DK)
Trae Young has been absolutely lights out in this series, and I really think he’ll come to play in game 7. He’s been able to get into the paint with ease and has either made plays for himself or others with tons of consistency, so he’s definitely going to continue to do so tonight. Additionally, I almost think he gets a slight boost by playing in PHI, because he’s so special when he has a bunch of people booing him. He’s made for the big moment, and he’ll get to prove it tonight.
3. Joel Embiid ($10,900 DK)
Rather than discuss why I like Embiid tonight, I would like to talk about why I don’t like Paul George. PG just came off of a really tough 7 game series, and I definitely think he’ll play fewer minutes in game 1, because they’ll have to save him for the rest of the series/playoffs. Ty Lue said that he’s going to have a 10-man rotation today, so I think the scoring and minutes will be a lot more balanced across the board, making PG a dangerous play tonight, especially considering he’s the 2nd highest priced player on the slate.
Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)
1. Deandre Ayton ($6,500 DK)
The Clippers are going to go small tonight (most likely), because it’s really been working for them in these playoffs. Unlike Gobert, Ayton is going to be able to take advantage of the lack of size for LAC in the paint; he’ll go to work in the post, and he’ll be able to take advantage of switches out of the pick and roll offense with Devin Booker today. I definitely think PHO will make a point to find Ayton in the paint today, so that should bode really well for his value tonight at only 6.5k.
2. Kevin Huerter ($5,200 DK)
Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable today, which means Huerter would see a few more minutes if he sits. Even if Bogdan plays, his knee injury should hold him back from being as effective as he usually is, which means Huerter will probably get more minutes anyway, especially late in the game in important minutes. Huerter has had a coming out party in these playoffs, and I think he’ll be ready to play in game 7 tonight.
3. Mikal Bridges ($5,400 DK)
Without Chris Paul tonight, the Suns will have to find some other guys to make plays for their offense. I don’t think Jae Crowder will be able to get shots by himself, but I could see Bridges being able to create a little bit, both from the post and by driving closeouts, so I definitely like the boost he’ll get tonight. He’s been excellent in these playoffs, and he’s going to see tons of minutes tonight, so I definitely like the value he brings at the bottom of this mid-tier.
Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)
1. Cam Payne ($4,000 DK)
Without Chris Paul, it’ll likely be Cam Payne that gets the start. He’s been great off the bench in these playoffs (and also filled in excellently when CP3 was too injured to be effective), and I think he’ll really relish the opportunity to get the start tonight. I don’t think he’ll be too large a part of the offense, but without CP3, Payne is going to get a lot more minutes than the vast majority of guys around his price range.
2. Terance Mann ($4,900 DK)
Obviously Mann isn’t going to do what he did in game 6 of the Jazz series, but he’s going to get the start tonight and should be the most confident he’s been in these entire playoffs. He should be a new player after his breakout performance last game, and I think that bodes really well for him returning value in this low-tier. Despite the fact that Ty Lue said he’s going to be playing a longer rotation tonight, I think that takes away minutes from guys like PG, Reggie Jackson, Batum, and Morris as opposed to a guy like Mann who’s young and energetic.
3. Dario Saric ($3,300 DK)
Despite the fact that I think Ayton will play super well while he’s in the game and will see far higher usage than normal, I could see him playing fewer minutes overall; he’s going to have to be running around the court guarding LAC’s small ball lineup, and that should tire him out quicker than usual. For this reason, I think the Suns could opt a bit earlier for Saric, who can guard multiple positions and stretch the floor.
NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY
Paul George LESS than 30.5 Points
As I’ve already talked about extensively, Ty Lue is going to make his rotation a lot longer tonight; the Clippers just came off of a really tough 7 game series, and they aren’t going to be able to play their starters for as many minutes early in this series. So, I think PG will play fewer minutes than he played in the latter part of the Jazz series, and that means he should score fewer points.
Deandre Ayton (+0.5 Points) MORE Points than Cam Payne
Deandre Ayton is going to take advantage of the lack of size that LAC has. Unlike Rudy Gobert, who didn’t post up once in the entire 6 game series against the Clippers (even though he had a huge height mismatch), Ayton is a skilled offensive player in the post and is almost definitely going to take more advantage of the size mismatch than did Gobert, which should bode super well for his points. They’re going to go to him early - trust me.
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