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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
QUICK HITTERS (6/2)
- Today's main slate features 4 games. Nobody is on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is PHI v WAS at 229.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is ATL v NYK at 208 points.
Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight's games. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!
Tonight's Lineup Construction:
This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.
Just as the Lakers were a game/team to exploit in yesterday’s slate, I feel the same way about the Sixers today. Without Embiid, PHI will have to rely on other guys to pick up the scoring load, which is why each of the 3 tiers today are highlighted by a Sixers player at that number 1 value spot. It’s not often during playoff time that there are injuries to exploit (because DK and FD haven’t adequately adjusted pricing like today/yesterday with the Sixers/Lakers), so we have to jump on one of those opportunities as soon as we see one. The playoffs are super unpredictable, so attacking these injuries is a way to feel some more confidence throughout the lineup-building process.
Tier 1 ($8,000+)
Each of the following tiers will provide our top 2-3 value plays (depending on how many games there are) of the night from within the specified price range.
Note: We will be using DraftKings prices for the price-range classifications.
1. Ben Simmons ($8,100)
Without Embiid tonight, the Sixers will have to refine their strategy a bit. They won’t be able to be as successful in the half-court without the offense of Embiid, so I think that means that they’ll try and beat the Wizards at their own game - getting up and down the court quickly for transition baskets. Simmons should be a far larger part of the offense than normal for that reason, and he should also take the chance to show everyone that he can respond well to his poor free-throw performance towards the end of game 4 by being aggressive early and often tonight.
2. Luka Doncic ($10,800)
I know I went to Luka last game and it didn’t pan out, but I have tons of confidence that he’ll turn it around tonight in game 5. He showed lots of frustration towards the end of the last game, and I think that bodes super well for him coming out tonight with tons of energy and intensity. Luka is literally the definition of a “gamer”, and there aren’t many people I would want in a situation like this over Luka. Unless we hear some information about Luka’s shoulder/neck that makes it seem like he’ll struggle to be himself tonight, I’ll be looking at Luka.
3. Kawhi Leonard ($9,600)
Kawhi has been the leading force in bringing the Clippers back from 0-2, and I think he’ll continue to be the focal point of the offense tonight. He’s looked like he’d had more of a green light in these past couple games than he did throughout the season, and that obviously should bode well for his fantasy numbers. In an extremely important game 5 that often dictates the winner of a 2-2 series, Kawhi will definitely bring it like he’s been bringing it the past 2 games, and in that case, I find it tough to go away from him even as his price continues to rise.
Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)
1. Tobias Harris ($7,800)
Without Embiid, Harris will essentially become the primary scoring option for the Sixers, and we know he can excel in that role. In addition to his scoring, Harris has been getting his teammates involved and has been a menace on the glass in this series, so I expect him to continue to fill up the stat sheet tonight with both assists and rebounds as well. He should take more shots and should see slightly more minutes than usual as well, and he therefore might be my favorite play of the night for those reasons.
2. Clint Capela ($7,600)
Capela’s price has steadily decreased throughout these playoffs, and I really like the floor that Capela has as well as the potential to have a large night. He’s had a double-double in his past two games, and he recently predicted a game 5 win by the Hawks, which makes me think he’s going to come and BRING IT tonight. With how Trae Young has been playing, I expect the Knicks to try to limit his floater game (which has killed them), which would result in more lob opportunities and putbacks for Capela.
3. RJ Barrett ($5,800)
I think you’re getting excellent value for RJ Barrett at the low end of this second tier. He put up 21-4-6 in game 4 and finally looked like regular season Barrett. I expect him to build off of that game 4 performance and be ultra-aggressive tonight, especially now that he’s back at home. Randle hasn’t been as effective as we thought he would be, so it’ll have to be other guys that step up and help out with the offensive load needed to get past this stout ATL defense.
Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)
1. Dwight Howard ($4,300)
Even though Dwight has had a dreadful fantasy series, I find it hard to go away from him without Embiid in the lineup. He’ll probably get the start, and he should see far more minutes than he’s been getting in these first 4 games, so at only 4.3k, I think you’re getting amazing value for Dwight. I expect a double-double from Dwight tonight and I could even see him returning value by half-time if he comes out with the energy and intensity that he should.
2. Daniel Gafford ($4,700)
Gafford has been the best big for the Wizards in this whole series, and he finally got the start in the last game that he deserves. With the 25+ minutes he’s locked in for as a starter, in addition to the incredible productivity that he has while he’s on the court, I think you’re getting a steal for Gafford at only 4.7k. Without Embiid, Gafford should be even more successful in the painted area tonight, and I’ll continue to like him if he’s going to be in this bottom tier.
3. Raul Neto ($3,300)
With Bertans ruled out for today’s game, I think Neto will probably get the start in his place. If Neto gets the start and plays well in early minutes, he could find himself playing important minutes in the second half and therefore securing himself a really nice floor. At only $300 over the price minimum, Neto allows you to feel confident that he’ll return value while also allowing you to spend up on someone else in that top-tier tonight.
NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY
No MKF Today
Hey Everyone! If you haven't already, be sure to get set up with an account for the playoffs. MKF is one way to make these playoff games even more entertaining and it's super simple to play!
If you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!