1) Yesterday was the "Terance Mann Game", and he was our #2 low-tier play!
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(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
QUICK HITTERS (6/19)
- Today's main slate features 1 game. The Over/Under is 215 Points.
This section will provide you with my 3 favorite captain plays, my 3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy!
This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.
Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.
1. Kevin Durant ($12,000 DK and $16,500 FD)
This series has looked completely different when it’s been played in BKN vs. MIL. The home team has won each of the first 6 games (and thus the players on that winning team have played better), so I don’t expect game 7 to be any different. I think KD gets the better of Giannis/the Bucks tonight, and I think he puts up massive numbers. MIL hasn’t shown that they can consistently stop Durant in any capacity, so I think he’ll continue to find ways to be successful offensively.
2. James Harden ($11,400 DK and $13,000 FD)
Obviously Harden hasn’t looked like himself since coming back from that hamstring injury, but he did look better in game 6 than he did in game 5, which is promising for how he’ll come out tonight. Even though he’s playing on one leg, he’s still managed to put up decent fantasy nights, and I think tonight will be his best statistical performance of the 3 games he’ll play in this series. He’s finally going to be playing in a game 7 where he has a sidekick that can take some of the pressure off him, so he should be able to play free and confident tonight. This is also a contrarian pick, so you can differentiate your lineup by going Harden at your Captain/MVP.
3. Jrue Holiday ($9,400 DK and $12,000 FD)
Rather than talk about why I’m going Jrue Holiday here, I would prefer to talk about why I’m NOT going Middleton or Giannis. I just don’t think Giannis is cut out for big games like this one. He’s not going to get soft foul calls in BKN tonight, and I’m just not sure he’s made for moments like this, so I’m going to stay away from his ridiculous price tag tonight. Middleton has also been REALLY bad in BKN compared to MIL, so I’m certainly not going to assume that’ll change tonight. Jrue should be a steady force for the Bucks, and I could see a breakout game.
Dark Horse Plays
This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!
1. Landry Shamet ($2,600 DK and $7,500 FD)
Shamet is by far my favorite dark horse play tonight. BKN didn’t go to their bench in game 6 besides Shamet (who played 22 minutes). Even though Shamet shot really poorly, I still think he’ll get the 6th man minutes, in which case he would be an excellent value play at this price tag. There are a bunch of guys priced ahead of him who are guaranteed (basically) to play fewer minutes than him, so I think you’re getting a steal in Shamet on both Draftkings AND Fanduel tonight.
2. Pat Connaughton ($2,000 DK and $8,000 FD)
I could basically copy and paste what I wrote about Shamet in here, because the same applies. He’s also virtually the only guy getting minutes off the Bucks bench, yet he’s priced far below some other guys who are not going to see as many minutes as him most likely (Bruce Brown, Portis, Claxton, etc…). So, I think you’re getting really good value in Pat, especially on DK. I would probably stay away from Connaughton on FD because he provides way less value there, but on DK he will be an absolute lock for me.
3. Jeff Green ($5,200 DK and $9,500 FD)
Green had a bit of a down game last game, but I could see him bouncing back at home tonight. The minutes are there, and he should be able to find the gaps in the defense and find buckets with James Harden at the helm of the offense. He can also knock down the three ball, which I think he has a better chance of doing at home than in MIL. I expect a bigger scoring output for Green tonight, and like Pat, I like him more on DK.
Lineup Construction Strategy
This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.
The intro to this section (where it talks about the differences between games 1 and 7) could not really be more relevant here. The rotations for EACH team looks completely different than it did in the beginning of the series. Claxton, Brown, and James on BKN and Forbes and Portis on MIL have been completely phased out, and the rotations have shortened immensely. Each team is basically only playing their starters plus 1 bench guy (Landry Shamet for BKN and Pat Connaughton for MIL); of course that could change slightly, but I don’t think we’ll all of a sudden see big Portis minutes tonight, for example. The other thing to keep in mind is that the home team has really dominated this series. It looked like a different game when each team played at home in this series, and I think you have to go 4:2 or maybe even 5:1 (even though I usually advise against that) with the BKN guys tonight.
NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY
Kevin Durant MORE than 36.5 Points
I know this line is ridiculously high, but I just see KD having a huge night tonight. He’s been better at home this series, and he’s an absolute gamer, so I think he should come to play in game 7. He’s going to get more calls than he gets in MIL, and I think he and the Nets should have confidence given how well they’ve played at home. Also, the Bucks haven’t shown at any point that they can stop him, so he should take over tonight with his back against the wall.
James Harden MORE Assists than Jrue Holiday (+2.5 Assists)
Without an ability to move as quickly as he normally can, Harden has become even more of a facilitator than normal. I expect him to really lean into that role tonight and to get KD, Harris, Griffin, and Green (the other starters) involved early, while I think Jrue will look to be more aggressive looking for his own shot tonight.
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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!