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(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
QUICK HITTERS (6/17)
- Today's main slate features 1 game. The Over/Under is 220 Points.
This section will provide you with my 3 favorite captain plays, my 3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy!
This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.
Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000 DK and $15,000 FD)
Giannis’s solid fantasy performance in game 5 was completely overshadowed by what Kevin Durant did, and for good reason. But, with the Bucks going back home tonight and playing with their playoff life on the line, I think Giannis will be super aggressive early and often. Additionally, it seems like fouls have been a big factor in this series, and since the Bucks will be playing in MIL tonight and in an elimination game, I think they might get a few more calls than normal, which should bode well for Giannis having a solid fantasy night.
2. Kevin Durant ($12,400 DK and $16,000 FD)
Durant had an all time great playoff performance in game 5, putting up 49-10-17 and completely carrying the Nets. However, I don’t see the Bucks allowing him to have the same type of game tonight, especially with Giannis likely spending more time on him defensively. He should see more double teams and should be helped on more aggressively tonight in the paint, so he shouldn’t have quite as good a game as he did 2 nights ago. However, he’s in a zone like no other, and he’ll still find a way to put up a good fantasy night.
3. Jeff Green ($4,800 DK and $11,000 FD)
Admittedly, I like Green a lot more on DK tonight due to his minuscule price tag, but I don’t even dislike him on FD where he’s priced way higher. He put up 27-3-1 last game in 35 minutes, and he should continue to be successful tonight. He’s not ever going to be a focal point of the Bucks defense, and with James Harden at the helm of the BKN offense (even though he’s not close to fully healthy), I think Jeff Green will be solid both on the 3 point line and in the pick and roll. I would think extremely hard about making him my captain on DK (even though I almost always advise against choosing a captain that’s cheaper than 8k). Tonight might be an exception to that rule in some of my lineups.
Dark Horse Plays
This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!
1. Pat Connaughton ($2,800 DK and $8,500 FD)
Connaughton’s minutes have increased in each of the last 3 games of this series, and I could see them increasing again tonight. He’s able to stretch the floor on offense (which allows Jrue, Middleton, and Giannis to operate with space), he makes tons of hustle plays, and he’s a great defender. Simply by being on the court for 25+ minutes, Pat could return value tonight, and I really like him given his price tag on both sites. He’s going to have higher usage and minutes than most guys in this price range.
2. PJ Tucker ($2,400 DK and $8,000 FD)
PJ Tucker has been primarily focusing on defending Durant, but after Giannis hinted at spending more time defensively on KD in game 6, I could see Tucker having a lot more energy on the offensive end. He took on a larger offensive role in game 4 and was successful in it, so I think he could look to get back to that tonight, especially considering he’ll be playing in front of his home crowd. Getting Tucker into your lineup allows you to spend up elsewhere, and with the minutes he’ll get, he always has a chance to have a breakout fantasy night.
3. Blake Griffin ($6,800 DK and $10,000 FD)
Durant grabbed 17 rebounds last game, but I think he’ll probably grab fewer tonight, which should mean that BG will have more than 3 rebounds (which is what he had in game 5). Offensively, Griffin will continue to see open looks from three as a result of the help defense that KD necessitates, as well as Lopez’s quickness (or lack thereof), which allows Griffin to get his shot off more easily than normal. The Nets will need someone besides KD to step up, and I think Griffin (like Jeff Green) can be successful in the PnR with Harden, so I like him tonight.
Lineup Construction Strategy
This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.
James Harden clearly wasn’t himself in game 5, so I’ll start out by saying that I would be really cautious in terms of making him your Captain/MVP play, or even inserting him into your lineup at all. However, even though he isn’t nearly as mobile as we know he can be, he’s still an excellent passer out of the pick and roll, and I think that bodes super well for both Blake Griffin and Jeff Green. The other thing to keep in mind tonight is how the Bucks will adjust to what KD did last game; there’s simply no world in which MIL is content with letting him get 49 as easily as he did, so they’re definitely going to change something up tonight. Whether that means putting Giannis on him, sending a double team, or over-helping in the paint, I don’t expect KD to be as dominant as he was in game 5. For those reasons, I’ll likely go to Giannis in my Captain/MVP position, because I don’t see the Nets making any adjustments to how he’s guarded.
NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY
James Harden MORE Fantasy Points than Brook Lopez (+9.5 Fantasy Points)
Lopez had a better than average game in game 5, and Harden went 0-8 from three and 1-10 from the field. Harden is going to get assists and rebounds just from being out on the court, and I bet he’s going to make some threes tonight; even though he has a hamstring injury that’s limiting him a lot, he doesn’t use that much legs when he shoots anyway, so I bet he’ll bounce back a bit tonight. I just don’t think 9.5 points is enough to make up for Lopez tonight.
Joe Harris MORE than 2.5 Made Threes
Joe Harris has really struggled to shoot the basketball in this series, but I think the Nets will go to him early tonight to get his confidence going. He’s a guy that you can run offense through, and he’s going to get up his fair share of threes tonight, so it’s only a matter of time before he regresses to the mean. They aren’t going to be successful moving forward if he can’t be a viable option for them offensively, and Nash knows that.
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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!