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(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
No google sheets today
- Today's main slate features 1 game. Nobody is on a back to back.
This section will provide you with my 3 favorite captain plays, my 3 favorite dark horse plays, and game-specific lineup construction strategy!
This section will highlight my 3 favorite Captain (DK) and MVP (FD) plays.
Note: For DK, picking a player as your captain means that they will receive 1.5x bonus on their normal points, but their price will increase by 1.5x as well. For FD, the MVP receives a 2x bonus without any adjustment to their price.
1. Kevin Durant ($12,000 DK and $15,500 FD)
Durant is the highest priced player in this game, and for good reason. Even with the news of James Harden trying to play tonight, I don’t think he’s able to do much; he’ll either try to play and will reinjure it or will just be used as a decoy. So, I expect KD to put the team on his back and take tons of shots tonight. He’ll probably see a double team, but he’s seen it before and he should be able to handle it. Tucker was incredibly physical with him last game, but Durant will definitely get some more calls at home tonight, so Tucker won’t be able to get away with what he did in game 4.
2. Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,800 DK and $15,000 FD)
Giannis has taken 31 and 26 shots in his last 2 games, and he hasn’t hit over 50% of them in either game, but he’s still put up 30+ in both. I expect Giannis to take a similar number of shots tonight, but perhaps he’ll hit a higher percentage. Blake Griffin is by far the best defender to cover him, but he didn’t play most of the second half last game, so we’ll see how that plays out tonight; if Griffin is injured or in the dog house, Giannis being able to go up against someone else would be a huge advantage for him.
3. Jrue Holiday ($9,000 DK and $12,500 FD)
Holiday hasn’t had a great series, but I think he’ll see a slight boost from not having to go against Kyrie. He’s been the primary defender on Irving for a good part of these first 4 games, and that means he has to chase him around the court and defend all 7 of his counter moves on every possession. Without Irving, he should certainly have some more energy on the offensive end to make plays, and I could see the Bucks going to Jrue Holiday in an effort to get him going so that he gains some confidence.
Dark Horse Plays
This section will provide you with some value towards the lower end of the price spectrum. These guys will also be low ownership plays that give you a good chance to differentiate your lineup from the field!
1. Jeff Green ($4,000 DK and $9,000 FD)
Jeff Green got the 2nd half start in game 4, and I could envision him getting the start tonight as a result of the injuries for BKN. I haven’t heard anything about a minutes limit, and even if he has one, I could see him going over it tonight in a must-win game 5 at home. Also, without the scoring and playmaking of Kyrie (and probably Harden), Green should have some more opportunities to make plays for himself, something he can still do when given the chance. He has the benefit of not having played against the Bucks yet (besides last game), which means they don’t have his game figured out like they do the other role players on BKN.
2. Mike James ($4,800 DK and $9,500 FD)
Without Irving and without a healthy Harden, the Nets will have to find guys that can get a shot for themselves besides Kevin Durant, and Mike James is that guy. He’s shown an excellent ability to get into the paint and finish, and he’s also been able to shoot the ball pretty well from three. I could see him getting the start tonight, and I think he’ll get more shots tonight due to the injuries. He’s underpriced on both sites, so I’ll definitely look to target him in almost all of my lineups.
3. Joe Harris ($8,400 DK and $9,500 FD)
As I’ve already mentioned a lot today, the Nets will have to find offense wherever they can find it. Although Harris isn’t great at getting off his own shot, he will definitely be used as a significant focus of BKN’s offense tonight; he’ll come off screens like Reddick and Duncan Robinson, and that’ll have to be a way that BKN finds some shots tonight. He hasn’t shot the ball great this series, but they won’t be expected to win tonight, so perhaps he’ll feel a little less pressure than normal.
Lineup Construction Strategy
This section will highlight some game-specific trends and adjustments. Remember, the playoffs force teams to beat their opponent 4 TIMES, meaning game 1 looks A LOT different than game 7 most of the time.
The James Harden news makes this showdown super interesting. Despite the fact that he’s going to try to play, I think we have to look past that a little bit. Remember when AD was going to “try to play” and then got reinjured in the first 2 minutes? If Harden does go through with playing, I actually think it’s more than likely that the same happens to him. So, you should operate with this slate as if Harden won’t have a large impact, which means there is some definite value on the Nets to be found. They’ll have to find new forms of offense, which is why I specifically like the BKN guys that have the ability to create their own shot. It’s also important to think about how the Bucks game plan might shift a bit tonight. They did far too much isolation in game 4, and I think they distribute the ball a bit more tonight, which bodes well for a guy like Jrue Holiday who’s been left out of the offense at times.
NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY
Giannis Antetokounmpo MORE than 13.5 Rebounds
My reasoning for this over is pretty simple: I expect BKN to miss more shots than normal tonight, which means there should be more defensive rebound opportunities than normal tonight for the Bucks. Giannis has been right around 13 rebounds in the first 4 games of the series, and I think he has a good chance to have his most rebounds of the series in game 5 tonight as a result of the Nets’ lack of scorers.
Bruce Brown MORE Rebounds than James Harden (+0.5 Rebounds)
This one has a pretty simple reason as well: I think James Harden will play tonight, but I doubt he plays the entire game, and I doubt he looks anything like himself. I actually think the most likely scenario is that Harden starts but doesn’t look great at all and sits for a large part of the game, which would be great for Bruce Brown’s line tonight.
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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!