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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
QUICK HITTERS (6/10)
- Today's main slate features 2 games. Nobody is on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is BKN v MIL at 234 points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAC v UTA at 221 points.
Welcome to our brand new section for the NBA Playoffs! This section will provide you with a full breakdown (or 'blueprint') of both players and strategies we like for tonight's games. Our goal is for this section to replace our usual 'Need to Know' and 'Core Plays' sections, as there is typically much less injury news in the playoffs and we want to focus in more on matchups and lineup construction!
Tonight's Lineup Construction:
This sub-section will briefly breakdown lineup construction strategies to consider for tonight's slate. Are there high tier must plays? Is there a ton of cheap value? Should you go Stars and Scrubs? Etc.
If there has EVER been a stars and scrubs night, it is tonight. First of all, I really like the value you’re getting in this top-tier. I love both BKN guys, and there’s a case to be made that Mitchell is a must-play as well due to the continued absence of Conley and the ridiculous usage that Mitchell therefore gets. The low-tier is also incredibly strong; the Clippers have changed up their rotations a bit, so you can find some value in guys like Kennard, Rondo, and Zubac, who are clearly going to play larger roles this series but have not been priced as so. I also love guys like Blake Griffin and Bruce Brown, who have been extremely consistent in their roles with the Nets in these playoffs. Stars and Scrubs tonight, guys. Do it.
Tier 1 ($8,000+)
Each of the following tiers will provide our top 2-3 value plays (depending on how many games there are) of the night from within the specified price range.
Note: We will be using DraftKings prices for the price-range classifications.
1. Kyrie Irving ($9,700)
I continue to like Kyrie Irving at below 10k without the production and minutes of James Harden. Him and KD are the main playmakers in the offense, and he essentially has free reign to take whatever shot he wants; he hasn’t gone for 30+ yet in the first 2 games of this series, and since Durant has been absolutely dominant in these first 2, I could see the Bucks shifting a little bit towards him (KD) defensively, which would open up room for Irving to operate. The floor is pretty high for Irving considering his usage and minutes, and we all know he can drop 40 on any given night. I could also see Irving being lower-owned than KD and Mitchell tonight, which could be a nice find for GPP contests.
2. Kevin Durant ($10,600)
The Bucks have had absolutely no answers for Kevin Durant in these first two games; he’s scored effortlessly from all three levels, and he’s definitely reminded us why he might be the most gifted scorer of all time. Even though I expect him to be a little bit more of a facilitator than a scorer towards the beginning of this game tonight, I still feel confident that he’ll take over at different points, and that should make way for a very well-rounded stat line in this game 3 matchup. He’s been great on the boards this series (because he has to be), and that’ll continue to be a focus for him tonight.
3. Donovan Mitchell ($8,900)
Mitchell is the 5th highest priced player on this slate, and he could definitely end up being the highest scoring player. He put up 45-5-3 in game 1 on 30 (!) shots, and I expect him to see the same workload tonight without Conley in the lineup again. He’s the focal point of this offense, and with the switching defense of LAC, he’s able to hunt out switches and go at whoever he wants, which REALLY looks like it’s working for him. I expect another big game from Mitchell tonight where he takes tons of shots. His floor is incredibly high, and we saw a ceiling game just a few days ago.
Tier 2 ($5,000-$7,900)
1. Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,900)
Without Mike Conley in the lineup, Bojan becomes probably the 2nd option offensively in terms of iso-offense (in the starting lineup). He put up 18-1-5 last game, and he should continue to be effective in that role with the minutes he’s getting. I think you’re getting awesome value for him at below 6k, and I’ll continue to think he’s going to get a value boost as long as Conley sits with that hamstring. You should feel pretty comfortable about Bojan’s floor (unless the Jazz get BLOWN OUT), and he always has the chance to be a leading scorer for them.
2. Khris Middleton ($7,800)
Middleton has had a rough first two games, but I can definitely see him turning it around tonight; it’s not necessarily that he’s getting bad looks (although BKN is doing a solid job on him), but he’s just not hitting a lot of shots that he normally does. Going back home to Milwaukee should make him feel more confident and comfortable, and I could definitely see the Bucks targeting him early in an attempt to get him going, because there’s no way the Bucks can win this series with how he’s been shooting the basketball.
3. Royce O’Neale ($5,100)
To be completely honest, I just absolutely love Royce O’Neale; he strokes it from three, he’s a great extra passer, and he’s amazing on defense. His minutes are going to continue to be in that 35+ range as he continues to bring value on the floor, but LAC will never be too concerned about him, so he can just fly under the radar with good dfs nights. He fills up the stat sheet, and he’s definitely going to get his fair share of three point looks, so you’re getting solid value for Royce at the LOW end of this middle tier.
Tier 3 ($3,000-$4,900)
1. Luke Kennard ($3,300)
Kennard played 29 minutes in game 1 and put up 18-2, and I think he’ll continue to play big minutes. He’s an excellent floor spacer, and he’s just a really fundamentally sound basketball player that knows how to attack a closeout and shoot, so I think Ty Lue will stick with him. He provides space for Leonard and George to operate, and at almost the site minimum, he won’t have to do too much to return value.
2. Joe Ingles ($4,700)
Joe Ingles’ price had decreased $200 dollars since last game, and I think you have to grab him tonight in this low-tier. He’s going to get the start and see 30+ minutes, and we know that he can shoot and distribute the basketball while he’s out there. He put up 8-7-3 last game, and I think his points could certainly be higher tonight with a little bit more pressure on Mitchell defensively from the Clippers. I’ll definitely be grabbing Ingles tonight in virtually all of my lineups.
3. Bruce Brown ($4,200)
Bruce Brown is going to continue to start and will continue to star in his role. He’s excellent at finding the gaps in the defense, and he is a fantastic athlete. He also crashes the glass with reckless abandon and can really defend. Nash would be stupid to go away from him moving forward, and I think Brown will continue to find the ball around the rim and somehow figure out a way to produce solid fantasy nights as a result of playing with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who have definitely both grown to love playing with Brown.
NBA PLAYOFF MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY
Kevin Durant LESS than 31.5 Points
Even though Durant looked unstoppable in game 2, he only put up 32 points. I expect the Bucks to shade over to him a bit tonight (because they clearly can’t defend him 1 on 1), and I think that’ll probably result in some higher assist numbers for KD tonight as opposed to scoring numbers. The Bucks number 1 priority should be to do a better job on KD defensively, and I think that’s what it will be.
Rudy Gobert LESS than 13.5 Rebounds
Gobert has a huge size mismatch against the starting lineup of LAC, but I think that will limit his numbers (somewhat counterintuitively); LAC will force him to guard a 3 point shooter for much of the game, and that’ll result in him being on the 3 point line rather than in the paint, therefore making it more difficult for him to rebound. LAC will do everything in their power to make him not a rim protector, and making him guard Marcus Morris Or Nic Batum, 2 good 3 point shooters, is a great strategy to do so.
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Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!