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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
QUICK HITTERS (5/6)
- Today's main slate features 7 games. ATL, IND, MEM, WAS are on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is ATL v IND at 240 points. The game with the lowest over/under is LAL v LAC at 211 points.
NEED TO KNOW
I'm going to start off this 'Need to Know' section with what I think is extremely important info to consider for tonight's slate. We are approaching the NBA playoffs, and because of the new playoff format, games are becoming especially critical for NBA teams. I think this opens up some amazing opportunities to win serious $$ both on Monkey Knife Fight (which I'll get to in a second) and in DFS. When building your DFS lineups tonight, take into account which teams (and players) desperately need to win, and which teams are playing in games that have less on the line. I'll touch on this in my writing tonight, but I'm going to be targeting a number of guys playing in games with significant playoff implications.
Bridges, Hayward, Martin Out, Graham Doubtful: These guys have already been out a couple games, so not much NEW value is opened up. However, I definitely like Lamelo ($7,900 DK and $7,500 FD), who’s charging full-steam ahead for the ROY trophy and a playoff berth.
Lavine, Vucevic Probable: Lavine’s return only takes away value from the rest of the Bulls roster. I would stay away from these guys tonight.
Kleber, Porzingis Out: With a depleted front court for the 2nd straight game, I would probably go to Powell ($3,500 DK and $4,900 FD), who put up 7-3-10 last game in 29 minutes and should get the brunt of the C minutes tonight again. I expect Dwight to do similar things on the court tonight, especially against a BKN team that’s the 8th worst team in the NBA at defending Centers.
OG, Boucher, Watson Out, Watanabe Questionable, Trent Probable: Not much injury news here, but I like a lot of the TOR players tonight due to the matchup against the fastest pace and 2nd worst defensive team in the league (WAS). I like Lowry ($7,700 DK and $8,200 FD) the most, because he’s coming off a game of rest and should really excel in this fast-paced matchup against a WAS team that can’t defend PG’s.
Sampson, Turner Out, Sumner, Bitadze, Lamb, Brogdon Questionable: This is pretty similar to the injury report last game for IND, and the only value I’m seeing is Levert ($8,700 DK and $8,500 FD) if Brogdon sits. The Pacers are looking very dysfunctional as of late, so I’m definitely staying away from them if these guys play tonight.
Smith Jr, Plumlee, Grant, McGruder, Josh Jackson, Diallo Out, Joseph, Hayes, Ellington Questionable: Whoever plays for DET will be a solid value play just because of the number of injuries tonight; my favorite play as of now is Sekou ($3,500 DK and $4,700 FD), who’s been starting and seeing tons of minutes and is coming off a 20-2-8 performance last game.
Lebron, Schroder Out, THT Questionable, Gasol, Kuzma, KCP, AD Probable: Assuming the Probable guys play tonight, there won’t be too much value to be found on the Lakers. If THT sits, maybe guys like KCP and Caruso get a slight value boost, but not much.
Aleksej, Muscala Out, Dort Questionable: If Dort sits, I would like Bazley ($6,200 DK and $6,500 FD), who becomes one of the go-to guys for the Thunder and has shown he can really get it going when given the opportunity.
5/6 CORE PLAYS
This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups
In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups.
Russell Westbrook (11,000 DK and 11,600 FD)
I’ll start right at the top with tonight’s cash locks. Westbrook has honestly gotten to the point where he’s unfadable in cash games. His ceiling and ownership are both just way too high for there to be any logical argument to fade him. I could get into the numbers, but you probably already know they’re ridiculous. Lock him in again tonight in all cash contests.
Jalen McDaniels (5,100 DK and 5,300 FD)
With Bridges, Graham and Hayward out last game, McDaniels played a whopping 39 minutes, and scored 36.5 DK fantasy points. He should see similar run again tonight in a plus matchup against Chicago. At just 5.1K, he plays too many minutes to look away from tonight, especially in cash lineups.
Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.
LaMelo Ball (7,900 DK and 7,500 FD)
Not only does Charlotte need a win tonight, I also love the matchup and narrative on this play tonight. LaMelo has come back and reignited his rookie of the year case, and could lock up the award with a really strong finish to the season. He just went for 45.25 DK points in Charlotte’s last game, and with Graham, Bridges & Hayward all expected to sit again tonight Ball should be heavily involved offensively. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go over 50 DK points for the first time since he did so in February tonight.
Ja Morant (8,500 DK and 7,000 FD)
Since I usually focus on DK plays here, I figured I’d throw out a guy I LOVE in FD tonight. Morant is simply way too cheap at 7K tonight with a solid matchup against DET. He just went for 63(!) DK points and looked absolutely unstoppable against the T-Wolves. Honestly, I don’t mind chasing him at 8.5K on DraftKings as a GPP dart, but at 7K on FanDuel I think he’s one of the stronger plays on the slate.
MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY
As I mentioned earlier, I think the playoff implications of some of tonight's games make MKF really interesting. Stars come to play in big games, and I'll be walking you through a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far, and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys!
Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.
Lamelo Ball MORE than 40.5 Fantasy Points
I expect Lamelo to fill up every column in the stat sheet tonight, as it’s very clear he’s charging full-steam ahead for the Rookie of the Year trophy. Edwards put up a huge game last night, so now it’s Lamelo’s turn to have an even larger all around performance (if you think Lamelo didn’t take note of Edwards performance last night, you’re wrong). Since he’s come back from his injury he’s played excellent basketball and has reinvigorated CHA’s unique, fast-paced style of play, and they look excited to ruin some playoff hopes in the play-in tournament. The ball will be in Lamelo’s hands a lot tonight, especially without the minutes of Graham, so I expect him to come out firing.
Steph Curry LESS than 35.5 Points
I know, I know, I’m usually all in on the Steph over for points, and against a dreadful team like OKC I should be all in on the over again, right? Wrong. Steph and the Warriors have been playing excellent basketball as of late, and I could really see this game being a blowout, meaning Steph might see fewer minutes than normal. Also, Dort is questionable, which opens up 2 options. 1) Dort plays and guards Curry (which is as tough a matchup as Curry will see throughout the year), or 2) Dort sits, in which case I’m way more confident about OKC losing big.
Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!