AC+ NBA 5/14


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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets

 5/14 Excel Optimizer/Datasheet

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

QUICK HITTERS (5/14)

- Today's main slate features 8 games. DEN, LAC, MEM, ORL, PHI, SAC, TOR are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is CLE v WAS at 237 points. The game with the lowest over/under is ORL v PHI at 214 points.

NEED TO KNOW

I'm going to start off this 'Need to Know' section with what I think is extremely important info to consider for tonight's slate. We are approaching the NBA playoffs, and because of the new playoff format, games are becoming especially critical for NBA teams. I think this opens up some amazing opportunities to win serious $$ both on Monkey Knife Fight (which I'll get to in a second) and in DFS. When building your DFS lineups tonight, take into account which teams (and players) desperately need to win, and which teams are playing in games that have less on the line. I'll touch on this in my writing tonight, but I'm going to be targeting a number of guys playing in games with significant playoff implications. 

Delly, Hartenstein, Love, Nance, Prince, Stevens, Windler Out, Garland, Osman Questionable: If Garland sits again, I’m going to Sexton ($8,300 DK and $7,800 FD), who should get even more shots than normal without Love in the lineup as well. The front court will be very thin for CLE tonight, so I also might look to Allen ($6,700 DK and $6,200 FD), who should see more minutes and usage than normal without Love, Nance, etc.

Beal Out: Two words: Russell Westbrook ($12,800 DK and $12,500 FD).

Campazzo, Gordon, Dozier Out: The Nuggets will be even thinner in the backcourt than normal tonight. I definitely like Rivers ($4,600 DK and $4,800 FD) and Howard ($3,000 DK and $3,500 FD), who are both too cheap given the minutes/usage they should see.

Grant, Frank Jackson, Joseph, Plumlee, Stewart, Dennis Smith, McGruder, Ellington Out, Diallo Questionable: Well, the Pistons are literally playing nobody tonight. I definitely like Okafor ($3,200 DK and $3,600 FD), who will probably get the start and should play tons of minutes without the two DET big men.

Bradley, Wood, Wilson, Wall, Porter, House Out: I’m going right back to Olynyk ($8,200 DK and $8,300 FD), who has been an absolute monster for HOU this season and shouldn’t have to share the primary playmaker role with anyone else tonight. 

Kawhi, PG, Mann Out, Jackson Doubtful, Ibaka Questionable: Lots of value is obviously opened up for the Clippers tonight without Kawhi, PG, and Reggie. I definitely like Marcus Morris ($5,600 DK and $4,300 FD) the most, who should step into that primary playmaker role tonight. Besides Morris, there is definitely some other value to be found amongst Rondo, Batum, Zubac, etc.

Anderson, Morant, JoVal, Brooks, Clarke, Jaren Jackson Out: MEM will be missing their entire starting lineup tonight, making way for a BIZARRE amount of value. I like virtually every MEM guy who puts on a jersey tonight, but my two favorites are Tyus Jones ($3,100 DK and $4,200 FD) and Melton ($3,900 DK and $3,600 FD), who are both ridiculously underpriced given what their minutes and shots will look like tonight. I also love Tillman, Bane, and Konchar.

SAC not yet submitted: SAC played yesterday, so I assume they’ll be without Barnes, Fox, Haliburton, and potentially some others.

Lowry, VanVleet, Siakam, OG, Yuta, Harris Out: These guys have been out (minus Yuta and Harris), so I’ll definitely go right back to Boucher ($6,500 DK and $6,400 FD), who should get tons of minutes and shots tonight. I also like Stanley Johnson ($4,000 DK and $3,500 FD), who’s extremely cheap and put up 35-5-10 (!) last night.

Curry, Draymond, Mulder, Wiggins Questionable: This game is irrelevant for GS, so I doubt these guys play, in which case tons of value will be opened up. The biggest beneficiary would probably be Poole ($4,100 DK and $5,000 FD), who would see far more shots and minutes than normal. I love Poole tonight.

Lonzo, Zion Out, Adams, Ingram, Iwundo Questionable: Not much new here, but if Ingram ($8,200 DK and $7,000 FD) somehow plays, I would definitely play him considering how many players the NOP are missing.

5/14 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

De’Anthony Melton ($3,900 DK & $3,600 FD)

The Grizzlies are sitting basically everyone tonight, as they play the Warriors on Sunday (winner of that game gets the 8 seed). As of now, the only players who played last game and are active tonight are Melton, Bane, Jones, Konchar & Tillman. If we don’t get more news, by far my favorite play here is Melton. If you haven’t watched the Grizzlies at all, Melton is really really good, and he had a few games earlier this year where he went for 40+ DK points. With this lineup, Melton and Tyus Jones (who also looks like a great play) should take the reins as the primary offensive options. I would expect Melton to lead the team in shots tonight. It’s a night where you probably need multiple Grizzlies to cash, but Melton has to me the highest upside of any of them. 

Rajon Rondo (4,000 DK and 3,800 FD)

No Kawhi, Paul George, Jackson or Beverly tonight, which means Rajon Rondo steps into a big role offensively. It’s pretty clear the Clippers don’t care about being the 3 or 4 seed (which makes sense given the standings), so I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw even more news come out closer to lock. Rondo went for 9-4-5 last time out, and would be an extremely strong play at 4K if we don’t get any more news here.

Markus Howard ($3,000 DK & $3,500 FD)

Howard only played 17 minutes last game for the Nuggets, but he scored 15 points and looked excellent while he was on the court. That and the fact that Campazzo + Gordon are out tonight should see Howard step into 25+ minutes for the Nuggets tonight in a relatively meaningless game against the Pistons. He’s the site minimum price on both DK & FD, so he doesn’t need to do much to return solid value, and he absolutely has the potential to go for 20+ in any given game (as we saw time and time again in college). I love this play for both cash and GPP lineups tonight. 

Stanley Johnson ($4,000 DK & $3,500 FD)

Johnson dropped 35-10-5 last night (66 Draftkings points). He’s 4K on DraftKings and 3.5K on FanDuel. Not much more needs to be said here, you’re looking at a guy who could go for 50+ DK points tonight. Find space for him in your cash lineups. 

Jordan Poole* ($4,100 DK & $5,000 FD)

Poole has scored 20 points in back to back games, while playing 20 minutes or less in both of them. I’d expect Curry to sit tonight, and if he does, fire up Jordan Poole in any and all cash lineups. He’s extremely cheap and we all know what he can do when given the opportunity. No Curry moves Poole into my top 5 cash plays of the night, so keep an eye on this news.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Tyler Cook ($3,300 DK & $3,500 FD)

This is a bit more under the radar than some of the other value plays on the slate, and I think Cook is an extremely interesting GPP look tonight for a couple reasons. First and foremost, both Stewart and Plumlee are out, which should open up significant minutes for Cook. He’s played 23 and 22 minutes in the Pistons last 2 games, and those were both with Stewart on the court. Tonight, I’d expect him to play at least 25 minutes in what doesn’t look like it will be a competitive game. Cook is also a solid PPM performer. He averaged close to 8 rebounds and 10 points per 36 MIN in his last 10 games. He’s got double-double potential tonight in what should be an expanded role, and the best part is the ownership will be much lower than the more obvious value plays mentioned above. 

Collin Sexton ($8,300 DK & $7,800 FD)

Not a lot of healthy high tier guys tonight, so the ownership on this play may end up being pretty high. That being said I think Sexton is pretty much the only player over 8K (besides Westbrook and maybe Olynyk) that I can justify playing tonight. He’s been incredibly consistent over the past couple weeks, and I don’t see that changing tonight in a great matchup against the fast paced Wizards. If you find another player over 8K you can make an argument for playing, I’m all ears, but I think this is almost a play by default here.

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

As I mentioned earlier, I think the playoff implications of some of tonight's games make MKF really interesting. Stars come to play in big games, and I'll be walking you through a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far, and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Jordan Clarkson MORE than 21.5 Points

There is some debate as to whether the Jazz/Suns are fighting for that 1 seed in the West, but I simply find it hard to believe that the Jazz don’t want it badly. The 2 seed will most likely have to play Lebron and the Lakers in the first round, which isn’t exactly the 2-7 matchup the Jazz are looking for. I expect Clarkson to take the lead for the Jazz tonight and secure that number 1 seed, making it less likely that they’ll have to face the Lakers in the first round. Furthermore, Clarkson will not have to face the tough defense of Dort tonight, who is out due to injury. I’m not sure who will be tasked with covering him, but he should have a fairly easy time scoring tonight.

Jarrett Allen MORE than 10.5 Rebounds

The Cavs, who had already been without Nance, Hartenstein, and Stevens, will be without Love as well tonight; this should open up even more front-court minutes for Jarrett Allen. Those increased minutes combined with what should be a fast-paced game against the fastest-paced team in the NBA (WAS), I expect Allen to get tons of rebounding opportunities. I know that he hasn’t played well as of late, but big-men (especially big-men who excel on the boards), are usually able to exploit the matchup with WAS, so I’ll be looking for Allen to do so tonight.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

Promo Code: AC 

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!