AC+ NBA 5/13


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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets

 5/13 Excel Optimizer/Datasheet

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

QUICK HITTERS (5/13)

- Today's main slate features 9 games. ATL, POR, SAS are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIL v IND at 244 points. The game with the lowest over/under is SAS v NYK at 216 points.

NEED TO KNOW

I'm going to start off this 'Need to Know' section with what I think is extremely important info to consider for tonight's slate. We are approaching the NBA playoffs, and because of the new playoff format, games are becoming especially critical for NBA teams. I think this opens up some amazing opportunities to win serious $$ both on Monkey Knife Fight (which I'll get to in a second) and in DFS. When building your DFS lineups tonight, take into account which teams (and players) desperately need to win, and which teams are playing in games that have less on the line. I'll touch on this in my writing tonight, but I'm going to be targeting a number of guys playing in games with significant playoff implications. 

Turner, Sumner, Lamb, Brogdon Out, Aaron Holiday, Levert Questionable: If Levert sits, I would definitely like Sabonis ($10,700 DK and $10,500 FD), who would see an uptick in his minutes and shots as a result of the starting backcourt sitting. I also would like Holiday, McDermott, and McConnell (if the Q guys sit), who would all see more minutes and usage than normal.

Capela, Gallinari, Bogdan Questionable, Snell Out, Trae Probable: If these Q guys sit, there would be some significant value opened up. I would definitely like Collins ($6,700 DK and $7,400 FD), who would be the primary front court threat for ATL. I would also really like Huerter ($4,700 DK and $4,300 FD), who would see more minutes, usage, and shots as a result of Bogdan and Danilo sitting.

Jimmy Butler Questionable: If Butler sits, I would go to Bam ($8,600 DK and $8,000 FD), who would become the primary scoring option offensively. If Butler plays, I don’t see too much value on this MIA team.

Embiid, Thybulle Questionable, Milton, Korkmaz Probable: If Embiid sits again, there would be some value opened up for Tobias ($7,300 DK and $7,000 FD), who would become the primary scorer and playmaker for PHI. PHI can clinch the number one seed tonight, so I expect Tobias to come out with some urgency.

Quickley, Rose Questionable: If these guys were to sit, I would like Elfird Payton ($3,400 DK and $3,500 FD), who’s extremely cheap but would probably get the start without these guys in the lineup. I would also like Randle ($9,400 DK and $9,000 FD), who would see more usage/shots without Rose playing.

JoVal Questionable: If JoVal sits, I would definitely like Clarke ($4,300 DK and $5,100 FD), who should see more minutes and will potentially start. There are also some other solid plays simply by virtue of the matchup against SAC. I don’t hate Morant or Anderson given this matchup.

Haliburton, Fox Out, Bagley, Barnes Doubtful, Hield Probable: All of the prices have completely adjusted to these guys sitting for a while. I definitely like Davis ($5,900 DK and $6,300 FD), though, who’s played well in the opportunities he’s gotten and should continue that tonight.

Brown, Satoransky, Theis Questionable: I don’t think there’s too much value opened up from any of these guys sitting, but I could see whoever starts in Theis’s place (if he sits) getting a slight value boost tonight.

Watson, FVV, Lowry, Boucher, OG, Baynes, Hood, Siakam Out: With all these guys out, there is some major value on TOR. I like a lot of the low priced guys, because the scoring for TOR has been very balanced since the stars have been out. My favorite is Gillespie ($3,600 DK and $3,700 FD), who’s been playing very well as of late and is just simply too cheap.

Porter Jr Out: Without Porter Jr, I definitely like Jokic ($11,000 DK and $10,800 FD), who will have to step up his scoring tonight and should be gunning full-steam ahead for that MVP trophy.

Ayton Questionable, Cam Johnson Out: If Ayton sits, I would expect Kaminsky ($3,200 DK and $3,500 FD) to get the start and see a lot of minutes. He would be far too cheap to overlook if Ayton sits.

POR not yet submitted: POR played last night, so keep an eye out for this injury report.

5/13 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Domantas Sabonis ($10,700 DK & $10,500 FD)

Sabonis is the clear high tier option on tonight’s slate. He’s averaging 62.95 DK points over his last 5 games, and if you extend it to the last 7, he’s gone over 70 DK points 4 times. He gets a fantastic matchup against MIL tonight, who have struggled defensively as of late. Better yet, Brogdon is out, and Levert is questionable. This makes Sabonis the primary offensive weapon in an important game for the Pacers. The ownership will be there, so lock him into cash lineups with confidence.

Freddie Gillespie (3,600 DK and 3,700 FD)

The Raptors again have just about everyone out, and that means Gillespie (who played 25 minutes last game) should be in line for a solid workload tonight. He scored 27.75 DK points last game, and the matchup tonight against Chicago is one that doesn’t scare me off at all. The minutes will certainly be there, and 3.6K is just too cheap to pass on for me tonight. 

Terence Davis ($5,900 DK & $6,300 FD)

Davis has been on fire lately, with over 35 DK points in each of his three previous games. His price hasn’t caught up and I don’t see any reason for him to be less involved tonight. With his GPP ownership projected at ~30%, expect his cash ownership to be even higher, making him an extremely strong look for cash lineups against the Grizzlies tonight.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Kawhi Leonard ($8,400 DK & $8,200 FD)

I’m looking at this play primarily for the ownership, which we project to be around 1% in GPP contests. Leonard is still playing 30+ minutes a game this late in the year, and he’s actually taken 36 shots over the past 2 games. This is admittedly a high risk play, but this game isn’t completely meaningless for the Clippers, who could end up anywhere from the 2-4 seed. My favorite part about this play though is the matchup, Charlotte ranks 2nd worst in the NBA at defending the SF position. Look to Leonard tonight as a high upside play who should come in at extremely low ownership, perfect for GPP contests.

Ja Morant ($8,200 DK & $7,400 FD)

Morant went for 24-7-8 in just 29 minutes last game against the Mavericks, and I think he brings that same intensity tonight against the Kings as Memphis fights for the 8 seed in the West. He couldn’t ask for a much better matchup against a depleted Kings team that ranks second worst in the NBA at defending the PG position. Even at 8.2K, he comes in as possibly my favorite GPP play of the night, primarily due to his 50+ point upside and projected ownership ~10%.

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

As I mentioned earlier, I think the playoff implications of some of tonight's games make MKF really interesting. Stars come to play in big games, and I'll be walking you through a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far, and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

TJ McConnell (+0.5 Assists) MORE Assists than Jrue Holiday

I anticipate the Pacers will be without Levert tonight, because there’s no sense in risking an injury when they’re already locked into a play-in spot. So, without both Brogdon and Levert (and even if Levert plays), I expect TJ to have a larger role in the offense tonight. In what will be a fast paced game between the 3rd and 5th fastest paced teams in the NBA, I expect McConnell to really excel in transition, something he does nightly. And with the +0.5 assist boost he gets, there is just too much going in his favor to pick Jrue.

Trae Young MORE than 24.5 Points 

The Hawks are in a must-win game tonight. They’re fighting to stay away from that 6 seed, which would mean they would have to play either the Bucks, Nets, or Sixers, the clear 3 best teams in the East. If they get the 4 (or 5), they’ll be playing either the Knicks or the Heat, both of whom would be far better first round matchups. Also, with Bogdan, Galinari, and Capela Questionable, Trae could be put in a situation where he has to absolutely go off for the Hawks to win (if these guys sit). Finally, Trae is in a great matchup against an ORL team that is the 5th worst team in the NBA at guarding PG’s and is very bad at guarding players with Trae’s player profile.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

Promo Code: AC 

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!