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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
QUICK HITTERS (4/29)
- Today's main slate features 6 games. DEN, NOP are on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is BKN v IND at 243.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is DAL v DET at 215 points.
NEED TO KNOW
Brown, Chiozza, Claxton, Harden, Irving Out: I LOVE Durant ($8,500 DK and $9,300 FD) at his price tag, especially without the 2 other stars in the lineup tonight. Durant should see higher usage than normal and be the CLEAR focal point of the offense tonight. His minutes have finally ramped up to the normal range, and I think he takes advantage of this increased opportunity.
Sabonis, Turner Out, Bitadze, Lamb Questionable: This has been the case for a while now. If Bitadze ($4,000 DK and $4,900 FD) plays, I would think heavily about him, especially against a BKN team that is the 9th worst team in the league at starting Centers.
Doncic, Finney-Smith Doubtful, Kristaps, Reddick, Kleber, Richardson Probable: Assuming the Doubtful guys sit and the Probable guys play, I would look hard at Kristaps ($8,700 DK and $7,600 FD) tonight, who should be the go-to guy without Doncic in the lineup.
Ellington, Grant, Plumlee, Joseph, McGruder, Smith jr. Out: Frank Jackson ($3,500 DK and $3,900 FD) is a super interesting play from DET tonight, given his price tag and what should be a larger role without these guys in the lineup. I’m also going right back to Stewart ($6,000 DK and $5,900 FD), because he always seems to play well without Plumlee in the lineup. A bunch of the other guys (Bey, Jackson, etc.) get a value boost from these injuries as well.
Lee, Paschall, Wiseman Out, Oubre Doubtful: Oubre has been coming off the bench as of late, so this news is a lot less impactful than it would have been towards the beginning of the season. Mulder ($3,100 DK and $3,800 FD) has been getting the start as of late, and he scored 26 (!) points last night, meaning he should get a lot of opportunity tonight against MIN.
Wall, House, Bradley Out: Bradley and House being out will open us some solid minutes for other HOU guys tonight. I would play whoever starts in House’s place, and I continue to like Olynyk ($6,900 DK and $8,100 FD) on DK, where he’s too cheap given the production he’s been providing.
Boucher, Trent, VanVleet Out: FVV sitting opens up some value for Kyle Lowry ($7,100 DK and $6,400 FD), who’s definitely too cheap given the usage he should see tonight as a result of his backcourt mate sitting.
NOP not yet submitted: Steven Adams will be out tonight, but there isn’t value created from that because he’s been out for a few games. NOP played last night, so make sure none of their stars are resting.
DEN not yet submitted: Morris, Murray, and Barton will still be out, but that doesn’t open up value either. DEN’s on a back to back, so make sure they don’t have guys resting tonight.
4/29 CORE PLAYS
This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups
In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups.
Isaiah Stewart ($6,000 DK and $5,900 FD)
With no Grant or Plumlee tonight, Stewart becomes a fairly obvious play as the primary rebounder and big for DET. He’s been extremely effective in games Plumlee has sat this year, and I don’t see a matchup against the Dallas bigs changing that. At 6K, he’s definitely a bit expensive, but I just think he has too much of a role tonight to fade, especially in cash lineups.
Kevin Durant ($8,500 DK and $9,300 FD)
Not too much explanation needed for this one. No Irving or Harden tonight makes KD the lead dog left in Brooklyn. 8.5K is a joke of a price tag for him tonight and the Nets get a great matchup against the Pacers, who have been giving up points for fun lately. Lock KD into any and all cash lineups and forget about it.
Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.
Andrew Wiggins ($7,000 DK and $6,700 FD)
The Warriors just got absolutely embarrassed, so I think they come out to play. I definitely like Steph and Mulder tonight, but for ownership reasons I think Wiggins is a guy to strongly consider in GPP lineups. He plays 35+ minutes a game for the Warriors, and does a great job filling up the stat sheet. I like him tonight especially with Oubre doubtful and a matchup against his old MIN team. At 7K, he probably needs 40ish DK points to come out as a strong GPP play on the night, and I think he goes and gets that in a high scoring game.
Christian Wood ($8,200 DK & $8,400 FD)
Wood has been outstanding in his last 2 games, almost going for a 20-20 in both of them. His rebounding ability is incredibly impressive and I think he puts that on full display tonight against the Bucks, who have been surprisingly bad this year defensively. He’s underpriced and will likely be underowned in what I think is a game he could go for 50+ DK points.
MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY
Unbelievably excited to be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys!
Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.
Kevin Durant MORE than 31.5 Points
This is a high number, but I think KD has a good chance to eclipse it tonight. The Nets are fighting for the 1 seed, and without Kyrie and Harden tonight, I think KD puts the team on his back. He’s been coming back from injury and is finally back to his normal minutes. Furthermore, he hasn’t been back for a game without Kyrie and Harden yet, so I think he takes the opportunity to get up tons of shots against a Pacers team that plays at the 4th fastest pace in the NBA and gives up the 9th most points to opposing teams.
Khris Middleton MORE than 1.5 Made Threes
To be bluntly honest, I don’t think this line makes much sense at all. Middleton has made 2+ 3’s in 8 of his last 9 games, and he’s going up against a HOU team that gives up more 3’s than average to opposing teams. In addition to this, Giannis is Probable, so if he somehow didn’t play, I would be even more confident that Middleton would make 2+ threes. Even if Giannis does play, he’ll probably look to facilitate a little bit more than normal due to the ankle injury he’s been battling.
Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!