AC+ NBA 4/27


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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets

4/27 Excel Optimizer/Datasheet

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

4/27 Google Sheets Optimizer/Datasheet

QUICK HITTERS (4/27)

- Today's main slate features 6 games. DAL, MIN, TOR, and OKC are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is POR v MIA at 241.5 points. The game with the lowest over/under is OKC v BOS at 216 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Tatum, Kemba, Rob Williams Out: Without Tatum and Kemba in the lineup, Jaylen Brown ($8,400 DK and $8,100 FD) becomes the clear go-to scorer and should be the highest usage player on the Celtics tonight. I also like Fournier ($5,000 DK and $5,200 FD), who should finally have a chance to break out tonight with what should be a larger offensive workload.

Sabonis, Turner Out, Lamb, Bitadze Questionable: If Bitadze ($4,000 DK and $5,100 FD) plays, I think you have to strongly consider him in your lineup. If he sits again, I would go back to Jakar Sampson ($3,200 DK and $3,900 FD), who would probably get the start again if Goga sits and is quite cheap given the 25+ minutes he should get.

Brown, Chiozza, Claxton, Harden Out: Brown is the only player that hasn’t already been out for multiple games, but I don’t think his absence opens up much value at all.

Brown, Augustin, Wall Out: Not much news here (because Wall has already been Out), but I continue to like Olynyk ($6,600 DK and $6,000 FD), who has developed into one of the primary scorers and playmakers for HOU.

Porzingis, Richardson Doubtful, Reddick, Luka, Finney-Smith, Kleber Questionable: Super important news here, and you’ll have to check back in to see who ends up playing. If the same guys play as yesterday, I would definitely look at Hardaway ($4,400 DK and $3,900 FD) and Burke ($3,200 DK and $3,500 FD), who are both too cheap given the usage that they would see.

MIN not yet submitted: MIN played last night in a down to the wire game, so I could definitely see a number of guys sitting tonight. Check back in on this injury news.

4/27 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Kevin Durant ($8,300 DK and $9,700 FD)

I had to put KD here just because of how ridiculously underpriced he is on DraftKings tonight. He’s coming off rest, and just went for ~50 DK points in his last game out, while playing just 28 minutes. Tonight he gets a better matchup against the Suns, is cheaper and should play more minutes. At 8.3K, I think he’s a pretty amazing cash play, but I’d probably look elsewhere on FanDuel with his much more reasonable 9.7K price tag.

Jaylen Brown ($8,400 DK and $8,100 FD)

JB always comes to play when Tatum sits, and tonight Kemba is also out. Brown will be the Celts primary scorer in a game that carries lots of importance for the Celtics. If Lou Dort plays, I expect him to shadow Brown, which is certainly a tough matchup, but JB will simply see too much usage and put up too many shots to pass on tonight in cash lineups. His price tag on both DK and FD is extremely reasonable and I love his chances of going for 50+.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

De’Angelo Russell ($6,300 DK and $6,400 FD) 

I don’t mind this play for cash or GPP because of how cheap Russell is, but he’s coming off a monster 27-2-12 performance against the Utah Jazz, and gets an amazing matchup tonight against the Rockets. I could EASILY see Russell going for 30+ in this one, the Rockets give up the 3rd most PPG in the entire NBA, and Russell has put up 36 shots over his past 2 games. He’s really starting to find his shooting stroke (7-12 from three last night) and if he gets hot tonight, which I think he will, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 40+ point DK point performance.  

Damian Lillard ($9,100 DK and $8,300 FD)

Lillard is my favorite GPP play on the slate tonight. Honestly, he’s been awful in his past three games, shooting a combined 25-72 (35%) from the field. He’s not the type of player who’s going to shoot that poorly for long, and the fact that he’s averaging well over 20 shots per game in his past three makes me really excited for what he might be able to do if the shots start falling tonight. His 8.3K price tag on Fanduel is the lowest I think I've seen it all season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he returns to 9-10K territory soon; Get in on Lillard at this price while you can.

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Unbelievably excited to be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Evan Fournier MORE than 15.5 Points

I understand that Fournier has been really bad as of late, but I just have a gut feeling about him breaking out tonight. Without Kemba and Tatum, and in a game against an OKC team that they should win handily, I bet Fournier finally gets some significant opportunity to score a ton of points. The Celtics know that if they want to be successful, they’ll have to rely on Fournier as a Clarkson-esque scorer off the bench, and I could really see them starting to use him in that way tonight with the lack of offensive options.

Kevin Durant MORE than 26.5 Points

KD is back. If you watched the last game, you saw him come off the bench and dominate at will. His minutes should ramp up even more tonight, and he should have an extra level of comfort after playing quite well last game. Kyrie has had to carry the scoring load for a while, and I think KD tries to take the weight off his shoulders until Harden returns. Durant took 21 shots last game; if he takes the same number of shots tonight (which I think he will), he should easily score 27+.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

Promo Code: AC 

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!