AC+ NBA 4/23


Announcements 

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2) We have just announced a new partnership with Monkey Knife Fight! Read more about our partnership here, and be sure to check out the brand new ‘MKF Plays of the Day’ section below!

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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets

4/23 Excel Optimizer/Datasheet

(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)

4/23 Google Sheets Optimizer/Datasheet

QUICK HITTERS (4/23)

- Today's main slate features 7 games. BOS and CHA are on a back to back.

- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MEM v POR at 233 points. The game with the lowest over/under is CLE v CHA at 211 points.

NEED TO KNOW

Brown, Kemba, Rob Williams Out: Without Kemba and Brown in the lineup, I think Tatum ($10,000 DK and $9,500 FD) is a great play; he’s coming off a terrible shooting performance and should bounce back aggressively. I also like Smart ($6,900 DK and FD), who should see a good number of minutes at the PG position tonight without Kemba.

Claxton, Harden Out, KD Questionable: If KD comes back, I think it takes away value from Kyrie. If he sits again, I like Kyrie ($10,100 DK and $9,700 FD) tonight against his old team on national TV. I also continue to like Jordan ($3,900 DK and $5,000 FD) for as long as Claxton sits, especially on DK where he’s too cheap.

Trae Young, Hunter Out, Capela, Gallinari Questionable, Snell Doubtful: Without Trae Young tonight, I’m definitely going to Brandon Goodwin ($3,400 DK and $5,000 FD), who played very well in Young’s last absence. I especially like him on DK where he’s FAR too cheap. I would also like Capela ($8,800 DK and $9,300 FD) if he plays, as he would see more touches and usage than normal most likely.

Kawhi Out, Rondo Questionable: Without Kawhi, I’m loving Paul George ($9,300 DK and $9,400 FD) tonight. He’s been great without Kawhi and I think he continues that tonight against HOU, who gives up the 5th most points in the NBA. I would also really like Jackson ($5,600 DK and $5,500 FD) if Rondo sits, as he would see an increase in his minutes.

Avdija, Hachimura Out: I think this injury opens up tons of room for Davis Bertans ($4,300 DK and $4,800 FD), who should get the starting spot and see an uptick in his minutes with the injury to Avdija. The injury is also good for Westbrook/Beal - it just means one less cook in the kitchen.

Bazemore, Lee, Wiseman, Paschal Out: Without Bazemore in the lineup, there will be a starting spot open. I like whoever gets the starting spot to get a slight value boost. I also really like Poole ($4,000 DK and $4,500 FD), who’s just simply too cheap for the minutes and usage he should see tonight.

4/23 CORE PLAYS

This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups

CASH CORE: 

In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups. 

Russell Westbrook ($11,000 DK and FD) 

Every night is a good night to play Westbrook, but tonight looks like an especially great matchup for him. Both Hachimura and Avdija are out for Washington, and although I don’t think that does a ton for Westbrook, I think it simply further solidifies his touches and incredibly high usage rate. OKC ranks poorly across the board, and just gave up 59.25 DK points to Westbrook 2 games ago. Lock him in and forget about it in cash lineups tonight.

Paul George ($9,300 DK and $9,400 FD)

George is another no brainer tonight with Kawhi out. The last 3 games George has played with Leonard out, he’s went for 60.25, 61.75, and 56.25 DK points. He gets a nice matchup tonight against a Houston team that ranks 6th worst in the NBA at defending the SG position. Lock him into your cash lineups and expect 50+ DK points.

GPP CORE:

Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.

Darius Garland ($6,800 DK & $7,200 FD)

Garland has gone for more than 20 points in each of his last 4 games. But what really excites me is the number of shots he’s been taking. Just in his last 4 games, he has jacked up a total of 73(!) shots! That number makes me feel really good about his chances of a big game tonight against a CHA team that just gave up 18-3-3 to Coby White (a player with Garland’s same profile). 

Evan Fournier ($5,500 DK and $5,700 FD)

Fournier has been out for a while with some COVID related issues, but from my understanding he didn’t actually contract the disease himself. I think that means he comes back energetic and excited to play tonight. Without Jaylen and Kemba tonight, the Celtics will need him on the offensive end, and I like his chances of putting up some points at just 5.5K. 

Dillon Brooks ($5,700 DK & $5,200)

This is the lowest floor play of the three, but Brooks took 11 shots in just 20 minutes after taking a game off a few nights ago. His minutes should return to ~30 tonight and he couldn’t ask for a much better matchup than the Portland Trail Blazers, who rank 2nd worst in the NBA at defending the SG position. Brooks went for 41.75 and 37.25 DK points in his two games before the one he missed and the one where he hardly played, so I love taking a few stabs at him in GPP lineups tonight, especially at just 5.7K.

MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY

Unbelievably excited to be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys! 

Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.

Bogdan Bogdanovic MORE than 18.5 Points

With Trae Young Out, and potentially Capela, Gallinari, and Snell Out, I really like Bogdan’s chances of scoring 19+. He’s taken more than 18 shots in each of his past 6 games, and I don’t expect that to stop tonight with all the usage ATL will be missing. Bogdan will quietly be the primary playmaker for ATL, and the only way he scores fewer than 19 points is if he somehow shoots REALLY poorly. I wouldn’t be shocked if he took 20+ shots tonight.

Steph Curry MORE than 34.5 Points

I understand that this is a ton of points, and I understand that the Nuggets are a slow-paced, good defensive team. But, the game is on ESPN, and I’ve learned not to go against Curry while he’s been on this hot streak. It’s very clear that he’s going full-steam ahead for the MVP trophy, and I think he can get it if he wants it. He even mentioned in an interview recently that he thinks he deserves the award, so I definitely see him continuing his hot streak tonight.

Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!

Promo Code: AC 

Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!