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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
QUICK HITTERS (4/22)
- Today's main slate features 6 games. CHI, DAL, DET, PHI, PHO, SAS are on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is PHI v MIL at 225 points. The game with the lowest over/under is CHI v CHA at 210 points.
NEED TO KNOW
Porter, MCW Out, Ross, Ennis Questionable: Even if Ross and Ennis sit, I don’t like picking players from ORL because there are legitimately 6 different guys who could lead them in scoring. If Ennis and Ross come back, though, I like the surrounding ORL players even less than normal, despite their good matchup against the 4th worst defensive team in the NBA.
PHI not yet submitted: The Sixers played last night without Tobias, Simmons, and Curry. I could definitely see all of those guys sitting again (as well as Embiid) for rest. Make sure you keep an eye out for the injury report - there is going to be value somewhere on PHI tonight.
Fournier, Rob Williams, Brown Out: Without Jaylen Brown, I’m going right to Tatum ($10,200 DK and $9,500 FD), who should take the most shots on Boston tonight and see an uptick in his usage. I also like Walker ($7,400 DK and $6,900 FD), who’s coming off a lot of rest and should be fresh and ready to go tonight.
Nader, Crowder Out, Saric Questionable: Without Jae Crowder, I think Cam Johnson ($3,500 DK and $3,800 FD) probably gets the start and plays tons of minutes. He played 30 last night after Crowder went down, so it appears he’s next in line for the 3 and D workload. If Saric also sits, that will only increase Cam’s value. Johnson might be my favorite play of the night, and I could see him smashing his price tag.
DET not yet submitted: DET played yesterday and is often banged up, so I could see a number of guys resting tonight, including but not limited to: Grant, Plumlee, Joseph, and Ellington. This would open up tons of value, so keep an eye out for the news on this one.
DAL not yet submitted: Similar situation here as with DET. I could see a number of guys sitting as a result of the Back-to-Back; I could see Luka, Kristaps, Kleber, Hardaway, and others resting.
Lebron Out, Gasol, AD Questionable, Schroder, Morris, Drummond Probable: Davis is set to come back tonight, but he’ll be on a minutes limit. This makes AD unplayable, but it ALSO makes it tough to play any of the other LAL guys. I could easily see the Lakers trying aggressively to get AD involved early, leaving few touches and shots for the rest of the starters. I’m staying away from LAL tonight.
4/22 CORE PLAYS
This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups
In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups.
Jayson Tatum ($10,200 DK and $9,500 FD)
With Jaylen Brown expected to sit this one, I think Tatum is probably the best bet for a high floor cash option. He’s been excellent lately and will need to shoulder even more of the load against a really strong Suns team with JB out. The Suns have struggled a bit defensively in their last 3-4 games, and I think JT and the Celtics come out firing tonight.
Cameron Johnson ($3,500 DK and $3,800 FD)
With Crowder out tonight, Johnson should definitely step into some extended minutes tonight. He played 30(!) last night against the Sixers and I see no reason he doesn’t come close to that again tonight against Boston. He’s also surprisingly productive when he’s on the court, and has scored over 13 points in each of his past 2 games. I like his chances of a 30+ DK point game tonight, and at 3.5K he makes for a fairly obvious cash lock.
Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.
Terry Rozier ($8,400 DK & $7,800 FD)
I felt like I had to target someone from this CHA v CHI game tonight. I think it’s probably one of the more fantasy friendly games of the night, and Charlotte is still without Hayward/LaMelo. Rozier has been balling lately, so I’m okay with going to him even at 8.4K in this plus matchup. The Bulls rank 4th worst in the NBA at defending the PG/SG position. Terry absolutely has 50+ DK point potential tonight, and I love throwing him in GPP lineups.
Jakob Poeltl ($5,900 DK and $6,200 FD)
Poeltl hasn’t had a huge game in quite a while, so he makes for a risky play tonight. That being said, we project him at 4.4% ownership, and I think the Pistons are a surprisingly great matchup for him tonight. They’ve been awful against players with Poeltl’s player profile this year, and have been giving up a TON of points recently. Poeltl is also coming off a 5 block game, now I'm not saying he does that again, but I do like his ability to chip in points on the defensive end. I think he gets his first double-double since April 9th tonight, and ends up being a really strong GPP play.
MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY
Unbelievably excited to be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys!
Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.
Kemba Walker MORE than 2.5 Made Threes
The Celtics will be without Brown tonight (in addition to Fournier and Rob Will), meaning Kemba jolts up to the second scoring option on the Celtics. Also, Kemba has been struggling with injuries all season (he hasn’t been playing back-to-backs) and is finally getting some good rest. The last game he played was 5 days ago, so I could really see him coming out tonight firing. Kemba loves the pull-up three, and I hope he’ll take a lot of them tonight.
Anthony Davis LESS than 13.5 Points
Anthony Davis is coming back tonight after missing more than a month, and I simply think 13.5 Points is too high for him. There have already been multiple reports stating that AD will start but will be limited to 15 minutes. Now, of course he could come out KD-style and score 20 points in 15 minutes, but I highly doubt that happens. It’s more likely he gets back into the groove, scores a couple buckets, but sits down just after getting his feet wet. Let’s put it this way: he would have to absolutely go off in those 15 minutes to score 14+.
Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!