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Today's Optimizers and Datasheets
(Note: Needs Excel Version 2010 or later)
QUICK HITTERS (4/20)
- Today's main slate features 5 games. Nobody is on a back to back.
- As of this writing, the game with the highest over/under is MIN v SAC at 238 points. The game with the lowest over/under is CHA v NYK at 208 points.
NEED TO KNOW
Claxton, Durant, Harden, Tyler Johnson Out: Without these guys tonight, Kyrie ($9,900 DK and $9,400 FD) should be the go-to scorer and have a great game against a NOP team that gives up the 4th most points in the NBA. You also have to look at Deandre ($3,900 DK and $4,600 FD), who should be locked in for a good number of minutes tonight and could potentially smash his low price tag.
MCW, Porter, Ennis, Ross Out: Without these guys in the lineup, someone will have to step up for the Magic. Dwyane Bacon ($4,200 DK and $3,800 FD) is definitely my favorite play on ORL tonight; he has a chance to be the leading scorer and is extremely underpriced on both sites. He’s one of my favorite plays on this slate.
Lillard, Nurkic Out: Without Nurkic in the lineup, Enes Kanter ($6,100 DK and $5,500 FD) should get the start and be in an awesome position to score points and get rebounds. Without Lillard in the lineup, POR could even look to feed Kanter in the post a bit as they’ll have fewer offensive options. Against a tough LAC team, I don’t see much value besides Enes.
Bagley, Holmes, Woodard Out: Whiteside is a fine option tonight, but his price has risen since the absence of Holmes, and it makes me a little nervous about him. I do like some of the other core players on SAC, though, because they’re in a great matchup against a MIN team that plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the league and gives up the 2nd most points. My favorite would be Fox (9,800 DK and 9,900 FD), who really excels against teams who like to play in transition.
4/20 CORE PLAYS
This section aims to identify players we think are especially good plays in either CASH or GPP lineups
In CASH lineups, we’re looking for players who have a high floor (players who have a low chance at flopping). We’re also not very concerned about ownership in cash lineups. In fact, if a guy has super high ownership, it makes sense to have him in your lineup so that other users don’t gain a massive advantage over you if he plays well. Conversely, if the player plays poorly, it doesn’t hurt you too much because so many users have him in their lineups.
Landry Shamet ($4,400 DK and FD)
Shamet is coming off a ridiculous 30 point outing in his last game with the Nets. He now draws a matchup against the Pelicans tonight where he should again be arguably the teams second option behind Kyrie with KD and Harden out. He is essentially a lock for 30+ minutes (played 38 last game) and at 4.4K he’s a no brainer for cash lineups tonight.
Dwayne Bacon ($4,200 DK and $3,800 FD)
This price point for Bacon is just way too low. With Ross, MCW, and Ennis all out, Bacon played 33 minutes last game and took 14 shots. He should be in a similar spot again tonight against an Atlanta team that has really struggled this year against players with Bacon’s same player profile. I like his floor a bit less than Shamet’s but the 4.2K price tag makes him hard to avoid in cash lineups.
Zion Williamson ($9,700 DK and $9,800 FD)
Zion is having an absolute breakout year. He’s shooting over 60% and averaging over 26 PPG. His price is approaching 10K, but I think he’s a great play again tonight against a Brooklyn Nets team that doesn’t have anyone who can remotely stay with him. I think he goes 50+ DK points again tonight assuming the game stays close.
Contrary to CASH, we are looking for “diamond in the rough” plays in a GPP lineup. We want guys who have low ownership, and/or guys who have a high upside (a chance to pop off). Since you only make money if you place in the top ~20%, you need to have some guys in your lineup that return high value but that are not highly owned.
Anthony Edwards ($7,100 DK & FD)
Boy do I love Edwards tonight, I think his ownership will be a bit higher than what you want from a GPP target, but he’s got true 40+ point potential against a Kings team that ranks third worst in the NBA at defending the PG position. Against the Clippers last time out, Edwards went for 23-6-3 while taking 16 shots. That type of usage should translate beautifully tonight, and 7.1K is simply too cheap.
Joe Harris ($5,900 DK and $4,600 FD)
Harris is gonna be pretty chalky on Fanduel tonight, but I really like him on both sites. Without KD or Harden, Brooklyn will need to look for other ways to score, and I think Harris has the opportunity to put up a bunch of threes tonight. If he gets hot, he could be one of the strongest value plays out there, which makes it well worth throwing him in a few lineups.
MKF PLAYS OF THE DAY
Unbelievably excited to be writing about some MKF for you guys! I’m going to be breaking down a few of my favorite NBA Prop plays across some of the many daily MKF contests. If you haven’t seen the types of contests MKF offers, you should really check it out - super fun and easy contests that don’t require much time or research! I have absolutely loved playing MKF so far (and have already found some potential ways to make serious $$), and I can’t wait to hopefully share some value with you guys!
Disclaimer: The lines that we are using are the lines at the time of this writing, so those are subject to change (the lines are updated in real time on the MKF website); this is one of the many differences between DK/FD and MKF.
Kyrie Irving MORE Points than Zion Williamson (+0.5 Points)
I know Zion has been going off as of late, but I simply find it too hard to pick against Kyrie tonight when both Harden and KD are out. Kyrie has the green light to take as many shots as he wants without those two in the game, and I think he does so in a nationally televised game where he has another chance to show the world his skills. On the other side of the ball, Zion will have to share a lot of the touches and shots with Brandon Ingram, who has been playing well as of late.
De’Aaron Fox MORE than 29.5 Points
We all know that Fox has been going off lately, but I think tonight will be an especially good night for him. MIN plays at the 2nd fastest pace in the NBA, which bodes really well for Fox’s ability to get down the court quickly. This game should be an absolute track meat, and I could see Fox scoring upwards of 10 points in transition tonight, making it fairly easy for him to score 30+ by the end of the game. In addition to the pace at which MIN plays, they give up the 2nd most points in the NBA to opposing teams, so Fox should be able to get into the paint with ease.
Thanks for reading our MKF Plays of the day! And remember, if you sign-up here and use the promo code AC, your first deposit will be 100% matched (up to $50). That means if you deposited an initial $25 and used our link/code, you'd be credited with an additional FREE $25 to use on the site!
Each days newsletter will be posted no later than 2 hours before the main slate of games tips-off, see you tomorrow!